Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Spring Election

I am starting to sense that the probability of a spring election this year is growing increasingly likely. The Liberals have continued to reaffirm their intention of voting down the next budget, and now even the NDP is saying that they have all their election machinery ready to go. The Conservatives are certainly not afraid of an election, as they are leading in the polls and in the best shape financially by quite a substantial margin. The Liberals are talking tough from a very weak position and their election mongering campaign doesn't make much logical sense.

Either the Liberals are bluffing (which they have proven inept at in the past), or Iggy is getting pressure from caucus to go as soon as possible. With Dalton up for election in the fall, the choice is to either go in the spring or wait until 2012. If you want to take the position that Stephen Harper is destroying the country, then shouldn't you have a moral responsibility to save Canadians from this perceived destroyer of nations? A rational leader should want to wait until his own numbers are advantageous (or at least respectable) before calling an election. If the Liberal rank and file have given up hope that the numbers will ever improve, that has to be where the pressure to go to the polls ASAP is coming from.

One of my best predictions for 2010 was that there would not be a federal election that year. There still has to be at least a 25% chance that the Liberals are bluffing their desire to take down the government, except that the last time they tried that, they failed miserably.


  1. Looking over the 2008 election results,
    there are 20 ridings won by the CPC due to the vote split on the left. I don't know how the CPC is polling in these ridings now, do you Iceman?
    PEI- Egmont
    NS - South Shore
    - West Nova
    NB - Fredricton
    -St John
    Ont- Brant
    -Kitchener Ctr
    -Kitchener Waterloo
    - London West
    -Mississauga Erindale
    -Oak Ridges Markham
    Sask- Saskatoon Rosetown
    BC -North Vcr
    -Saanich Gulf Isl
    -Surrey North
    NWT -Nunavut

  2. Steve Janke and many Conservative bloggers and posters think it might be an internal revolt from Bob's team, a deflection on the poor financial numbers for 2010 and lastly just another stunt.

    The Liberals are in a weak position and nothing in the past 12 months shows any sign of improvement. The WPG win was a result of a seasoned vetern taking on two rookies with a collapse of the NDP base. The veteran Liberal had his team up, ran on a tough on crime agenda.

    If the Left are trading seats another pickup of twenty for the Conservatives is not out of the question.

    I think Ignatieff's team has had two years to turn the ship around and the MPs within the party are not happy in the cheap seats. This party is not known for their patience.

    Ignatieff is visiting riding they recently lost in 2006-2008. Dion did the same thing in 2006.

    Saving the furniture tour II. His events have photo cropped photos and the crowds look tiny.

    Speaking to a room of twenty people per riding may seem like a good plan but if you are only talking to the converted what will change?

    Game changer in 2011?

    The economy is moving along and the voters are not angry as they were in the US for change. No groundswell in wrong direction of government/country.

    Can the left excite the voters during a campaign to show up and change teams? Unlikely impossible no. Anything can happen during a campaign.

  3. I don't think there will be an election in 2011. 2012 is more likely.

  4. My rule about the Liberals is to take absolutely NOTHING they say or do at face value. There are just too many flip-flops and theatrics. Plus, they will often talk tough, just to appease their base, and better make the case in fund-raising letters that they need more money.

    So I ignore all of this noise from Rae over the UAE, monotonous drivel from Brison re pensions and prisons, look-busy bus tours from Iggy, etc etc.

    I just cannot visualize 155 MPs standing up to defeat Flaherty's "no poison pill" budget.
    All in all, I would put the chances of a spring election at around 20 %.

  5. Just to be contrary,I predict an election in June,with another Harper minority, F*** all settled on the Canadian political scene,and $500 million tax dollars wasted.

    If the politicians want to do us a favour,which is doubtful,they should agree on legislation for fixed election dates with NO exceptions. If the government should be defeated in a confidence motion, so be it,carry on with the minority government to the election date.

    This constant bullshit ,"will there be an election, or won't there" does nothing but distract the public from the real issues,which are too numerous to mention.

    Get on with the business of running the Country and for the Opposition, building a realistic platform to convince us why you could do a better job than the current government,and we'll see you in 2012.


  6. Iffy dropped from 14 to 12% approval in today's AR poll.

    A vote for the LPC is a vote for Iffy leading a coalition of losers.

  7. Taber's latest headline is "Tories see tour as proof Ignatieff will force ‘needless’ election".
    The tour isn't proof of an election, Iggy has done these tours before. The part where I think an election might be coming is when Iggy said Canadians are ready for an election and he intends to vote against the budget which could trigger an election. If a substantial portion of his caucus thinks he's going to lose the next election, better to have that election sooner.

  8. If an election happens this spring, will any loosing MPs come up short in the time required to receive a pension? This may be enough incentiff to delay by the opposition an election untill 2012.