Marc Garneau Quits Liberal Leadership Race

The final obstacle for Justin Trudeau to become the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada has dropped out of the race, less than a month before ballots are to be cast. Marc Garneau was the only candidate with even a slim chance of upsetting JT, and the only one to really call him out for soft policy positions during the leadership debates. Today's withdrawal paves the way for Justin to win in a landslide, or as Garneau said; "Let’s give to Caesar what belongs to Caesar". I'm not sure if comparing Trudeau to a Roman despot is a genuine compliment, or a thinly veiled departing punch.

It probably would have been better for the party had Garneau stayed in the race until the new leader was announced, to at least give the appearance of a real competition. Without the astronaut, the "race" is essentially just another coronation. Yes, Martha Hall Findlay is still slugging away, but that hardly counts for anything. The only one who could have presented JT with a real challenge is Bob Rae, but Party brass made sure that wasn't going to happen. It would have been interesting (if not entertaining) to see Bobby debate Justin with both fighting to become Prime Minister, but that's not going to happen.

Trudeau's victory was all but certain even before today's news, with polling continuing to show that if he were the leader, the Liberals would be in a position to win a majority government. Many of those new votes would be coming at the expense of the NDP. Granted, this is polling done before Trudeau has sat even a day as party leader. His fortunes might not be so bright when he's finally put under a microscope. We're talking about somebody with a temper who has had some entertaining outbursts on Parliament Hill, which you can bet we'll be watching over and over again on television commercials over the next 2 years.

It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds. The interesting part will be what strategy Tom Mulcair adopts to keep all those old Bloc seats in Quebec. If they are not careful, the NDP is at risk of getting decimated in the next general election, which would be embarrassing for Mulcair. Good luck Tom, you're going to need it!

2013 The Year Of Trudeau

As the Liberal Party prepares to begin it's latest leadership race, polls show that Justin Trudeau could win a majority government in the next election if he is crowned leader. This all but guarantees his coronation this spring. The other leadership candidates would be advised not to borrow too much money in a futile race with an all but certain outcome. While I might have trouble believing these polling results, their mere existence will unquestionably be enough to put Justin over the top. He'll get the lion's share of the media spotlight for the foreseeable future, probably more than NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.

It would be interesting to know what proportion of these 40% of Canadians who would vote for a Trudeau led Liberal Party are saying so just on the nostalgia of name recognition, and how many have actually been following Justin's career in parliament? Many of us who have been following his career in the House of Commons closely have unfavourable opinions of the kid. He has a temper, a tendency to speak of himself in the third person, and he holds policy positions that are farther to the left than most viable candidates. If he had a dog named Kyoto, it wouldn't surprise me.

How will Thomas Mulcair handle a Trudeau victory? The two will never need to work together to collapse the government, since we have a majority and the next election will be on Stephen Harper's terms. There is no question that a resurgence of the Liberal Party will take a giant bite out of the NDP caucus, and one assumes that Mr. Mulcair would indeed like to become Prime Minister. Does Tommy Boy play nice, or does Tom play to win? Your guess is as good as mine.

In the meantime, I'm assigning a 95% probability that Justin Trudeau will be the next leader of the Liberal Party. Who wins the next federal election? That is still too far away to start making predictions.

Parliament Returns, Does Anyone Care?

Canadian Parliament has resumed for another session, 17 months into the Conservatives majority mandate. The Tories have a comfortable lead in the polls, as all that fuss last spring over the sinister "omnibus budget" appears to have fallen on deaf ears. Is the average Canadian even paying attention right now? We suffered through more than 6 years of minority governments where every faux controversy was sensationalized and the next election was always right around the corner. Most of us have been enjoying the comparable peace and tranquility of majority rule. Even some political bloggers have struggled to stay interested. Who knows, with the NHL currently locked out, maybe there will be a few extra Canadians tuned in to Parliament Hill this fall?

The NDP seems to have lost some support to the Liberals over the summer, ironic considering Mulcair has been trying to move the party closer to the political center where the greatest plurality of voters are found. Perhaps the Liberals received a bounce from Bob Rae announcing he won't run for permanent leadership? With the Liberal Party continuing to struggle for relevance in a crowded political left, it's fun to see Gloria Galloway at the Globe vigorously defending the party seriously lacking tangible policy (difficult to do without a permanent leader). The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Liberals have been accused of lacking substance and they're not going to take it anymore dammit! Rumour has it that Liberal strategists will try to capitalize on Mitt Romney's "victims" gaffe by comparing Stephen Harper to Romney. Good luck with that...

CRTC Fines Liberal Party For Illegal Robocalls

It is nice to see that the Liberal party has been fined for making illegal and misleading robocalls during the last election in the riding of Guelph, breaking election rules. Interesting though that the penalty is coming from the broadcast regulator, and not the electoral regulator (which did not consider the matter worth investigating). Elections Canada is far too pre-occupied with the hunt for Pierre Poutine to actually reprimand the third place party for breaking the rules. The CRTC seems to take the enforcement of rules and regulations more seriously. But hey, what's wrong with paid partisan phone calls pretending to be from a regular citizen and not from a political party? Some might call that fraud, others might call it an accidental misunderstanding.

Don't forget, Valeriote had the biggest vote gain of any Liberal in Canada over 2008. He jumped from 32% to 43% while his party was decimated, his leader defeated. Whatever Frank did, you can't argue that he got strong results. With Liberals collapsing all around him in apocalyptic fashion, Frank gained ground. Good job Frank.

Bob Rae Is Running For Liberal Leader?

All of the people who were expecting Bob Rae to keep his word and not run for permanent Liberal leadership after accepting the interim position must have been shocked to learn today that Bobby intends to run for the job (though that's what many of us believed all along). Since being the party leader would give him an unfair advantage in a leadership contest, he is "expected" step down from the interim post in June. That's precisely why it was the Liberal Party who demanded that Rae promise not to run for the permanent job before taking the interim job. Originally Bob demanded he be allowed to keep the interim job for two years, now he's "expected" to resign (provided the party board of directors allows him to run for the full time job).

Bob Rae wants to be Prime Minister. That's why he joined the Liberal party and entered federal politics. That's what I've been saying all along. Today's poll question; should Bob Rae be allowed to run for permanent leader of the Liberal Party?

Justin Trudeau; There Will Be No Rematch

Having defied the expectations of many partisans and non partisans alike, pulling off an upset in a charity boxing match against Senator Brazeau, Justin Trudeau will not allow his opponent an opportunity to redeem himself. He's done. Retiring on top. Given that Justin proclaimed his victory to be a symbolic representation of the fight between Liberals and Conservatives, losing the rematch would itself be ripe with symbolism. As Apollo Creed said to Rocky at the end of the fight in Rocky 1, "there will be no rematch". He probably knows that he was lucky to win, and even though a rematch would likely raise even more money for cancer research that the original fight, he's had enough. It makes sense from a self image perspective. Muhammad Ali won both rematches against Joe Frazier. Lennox Lewis creamed Hollyfield in their rematch. Rocky won the second fight against Creed. If you win, that's basically as good as it is going to get. Who wouldn't want to go out on top instead of risking embarrassment in a rematch?

Is Justin Trudeau retiring from charity boxing because he's preparing a run at the Liberal leadership next year? Today's poll question, why do you think Trudeau is denying his defeated opponent a chance at redemption?

Will The Liberals Now Stop Complaining About Deficits?

For the last three years we've heard the opposition constantly complaining that the governing Tories were running a deficit. The Liberals in particular hammered this point at every opportunity, trying to paint the government as spending irresponsibly (even though it was the Liberals who demanded a multi billion stimulus package as a condition to supporting the 2009 budget in a minority parliament after a coup attempt). Fast forward to 2012 when the Tories have taken measures to reduce the deficit and cut spending, and suddenly they are accused of viciously attacking Canadians with allegedly draconian cuts. It's hard to please these guys. I suppose at the end of the day, that's what the opposition is here for, to complain.

The good news is that the CBC will have their federal funding cut by 10%. Maybe that's not enough, but it is a start and a move in the right direction. Of course as you can imagine, the CBC is none too happy about this budget. They are talking about it on Newsworld today under the headline "BUDGET FALLOUT". They'll either have to scale back their expenses, or charge a little more for advertising on their shitty programing. Can I recommend holding a telethon perhaps? It would be interesting to see how much money they could raise, if any. Most CBC employees are paid far far more than the average Canadian.

I like this budget. We could have used this last year, but the Tories campaigned on the minority budget that the opposition voted against to force the election. They were locked into last year's budget, this one is far better. We are still more than 3 years away from the next election, so we have a few more Tory majority budgets left.

Get used to it Liberals. Do the NDP have an opinion on the matter? Probably, but who cares?

BC Liberal Titanic Slowly Sinking

British Columbia's Liberal Premier Christy Clark has lost her first MLA to the BC Conservatives, as John Van Dongen has defected for "personal reasons" (the reason being profound disagreement with Clark's leadership). The Titanic is slowly sinking, and Tories have begun jumping on the lifeboats. He won't be the last to defect. Even with Stockwell Day and Preston Manning playing the role of the band playing happy music on the Titanic to avoid panic, the gig is up. Christy Clark can't win and her party is mortally wounded. The BC Liberals chose a left winger to replace Gordon Campbell, and she's losing ground on both the right and left flanks. The BC NDP is polling in majority territory, so the Liberal leftist can't even win the left and she is alienating the right.

The writing is on the wall, and it is time for BC Conservatives to explore their options. When she became Premier, she promised a quick election to get a mandate from the people. When the polls started showing people turning on her and her party, she postponed that election as long as possible. I said this was a disaster during her leadership campaign, she won anyway with the support of internet voting from fans of her radio show, and now is proving me right. She's an Allison Redford clone, both elected in questionable leadership races (not by the people) who are falling flat in the public's eyes. The biggest difference is that Danielle Smith has a far stronger base than John Cummins, but both are a far better option for provincial Tories than the one in power.

Bob Rae Infomercials

Today's poll question; how do you see the new Conservative ads about Bob Rae? Are they necessary infomercials? Are they deplorable attack ads? Do you care? Have you even seen them? As a survivor of Bob Rae's Ontario, I see them as infomercials necessary to educate rest of the country about the consequences of Bobby taking power; others see them as cheap "dirty tricks". Why would the Conservatives even target Rae if he's only the "temporary leader? Because none of us believed him when he promised to step aside after 2 years, now he will not deny the possibility that he's running for the full time gig, proving us right. Being the acting leader gives him a decided advantage heading into the not so distant leadership campaign.



I'd rather Mulcair become Prime Minister than Rae, and I'm no fan of Tommy Boy. It does seem as though Tom is trying to tune down the angry man routine, but we will see if that lasts and if he can truly squeeze the Liberal Party in the center. Appointing Libby Davies to be your deputy hardly signals a move to the right.

Pierre Poutine Recorded "Vote Liberal" Message

In an interesting turn of events, the infamous "Pierre Poutine" (allegedly responsible for the supposedly "greatest electoral fraud in Canadian history") also recorded a message supporting Liberal candidate Frank Valeriote in Guelph. I'm not sure why a Conservative operative would want to encourage people to vote Liberal, but the recording is attached to the account. Batman and Robin (aka Maher and MacGregor) have theorized that the purpose of the call (which was recorded but never sent out) was intended to annoy Liberal supporters. This argument is a bit hypocritical considering the Liberals themselves sent out thousands of robocalls encouraging people to vote Liberal, not all of which were legal according to election law. If sending out robot calls saying "vote Liberal" will discourage liberals from voting, then why would the Liberals send out their own robocalls encouraging people to vote Liberal?

The true identity of Pierre Poutine remains a mystery, at least to the public. Supposedly Elections Canada already knows who he is and aren't releasing his identity until they have completed their investigation.

Regardless, this story just got a lot more interesting...

Good Luck To Bob Rae In Toronto-Danforth

Today the former riding of Jack Layton is holding a byelection, and I'd like to offer Bob Rae the best of luck. Isn't he the candidate? Funny how there are giant billboards advertising his face throughout the riding, meanwhile he's only supposed to be the "temporary leader". I'm willing to wager that there is not a single Nicole Turmel billboard in Jack's old stomping ground, which the NDP are likely to win no matter how often Bobby's ugly mug shows up on campaign ads. That's some kind of interim leader. Make a guy who promised to step down in a year the face of the party. Granted, some of us never believed Rae when he promised his leadership was only temporary. He wants to be Prime Minister. That's why he joined federal politics and defected to the Liberals. He's the man. He will be the Liberal leader in the next election, which I believe is what he wanted all along.

Robogate Absurdity Continues

Guy Giorno really said it best tonight when he Tweeted to Stephen Wicary and Susan Delacourt "You assume we have records of things we didn't do. Elections Canada can take what it wants but CPC can't volunteer what it never had." This coming on the heals of the Liberals handing over phone records earlier this afternoon, which does seem an appropriate gesture considering they have already confessed to breaking electoral law regarding partisan phone calls during the writ. It would be interesting to know how much paper was shredded today in the office where these records were produced. The sooner EC completes its investigation, the sooner we can get to the bottom of these Liberal dirty tricks. I want to know if Frank Valeriote stole the election in Guelph.

The Conservatives have already voted unanimously with the opposition to increase Elections Canada's investigatory powers, and are not withholding any information from them. As of yet, the only party proven to have engaged in illegal activity in Guelph are the Liberals, despite what fake confessions you might have seen on Youtube today. So many people wanted so badly for Pierre Poutine to be a Conservative office worker that they jumped all over the fake clip before finding out its lack of authenticity. Even a Blogging Tory wrote a premature post "Pierre Poutine is Michael Sona". Come on people, this is getting ridiculous.

Who Benefited From Robocalls In Guelph?

There have been allegations of large scale "voter suppression" in the riding of Guelph in 2011, and the interesting question is who benefited the most from this alleged fraud? Of all the Liberals who ran in the last election, which candidate experienced the largest increase in popular vote? That's right, none other than Frank Valeriote in Guelph, who had 32% of the vote in 2008 and 43% in 2011, an 11% rise, the single largest increase of any Liberal in the country (while the party was plummeting nationally). Only 21 out of 308 Liberal candidates experienced a net gain (Central Nova doesn't count because they ran no candidate in 2008), and only 2 of those won their seat. So while 287 Liberals (93% of the party) experienced declines in popular vote, Valeriote hit a long home run with an 11% gain? Meanwhile in neighbouring ridings Cambridge and Wellington the Liberal vote fell 8% and 6% respectively. When you look at the statistics, Valeriote is the Barry Bonds of the Liberal Party.

Boy, if the Conservatives were trying to suppress the Liberal vote in Guelph, they sure did a phenomenally terrible job at it!

Liberal Illegal Robocalls Not As Big Of A Story

Interesting that the Liberals have been caught making illegal robocalls in the controversial riding of Guelph, but the story is noticeably absent from the CBC Politics page. The big headline is a request to investigate Julian Fantino's election finances. It would appear that confessed Liberal "dirty tricks" just isn't as interesting a news story as allegations of Tory "dirty tricks". Then again, the Liberals are in 3rd place and not promising to cut the CBC's budget by 10%, so I can see where they might get bumped down the priority list. Does anyone care about the Liberal Party anymore? Perhaps when the story broke this afternoon, the CBC online editors had already gone home for the weekend? Somehow I doubt that Evan Soloman will be leading his show with this on Monday. We'll see how many of the 31,000 "complaints" (if we can call them that) collected by Ian Chapstick and friends were actually "complaining" about robocalls ordered by the opposition parties.

Protests have been planned for this weekend in cities across the country. The Robocall protests to date have not mustered much attendance, but we'll see if this new information on Liberal dirty tricks helps boost the numbers. Will there be any signs demanding an end to Liberal dirty tricks? I won't hold my breath...

Today's poll question, should there be a byelection in Guelph, where the Liberals won handily by using dirty tricks?

Should Trudeau Run For Liberal Leader?

Today's poll question; would you like to see Justin Trudeau become leader of the Liberal Party? Previously I have endorsed Gerard Kennedy as my favoured "scorched earth" candidate, but he has been overtaken in recent days. There is no doubt in my mind that the Tories would win a second majority if JT led the party into the next election. The assortment of video clips that are piling up in his wake are becoming legendary in a bad way, and will provide priceless material for election ads. The third person references are outstanding and hopefully those will continue.

Realistically the separation fiasco this week has eliminated the likelihood that he runs against Bob Rae in 2013. He has a constituency should he decide to run, and I truly hope he does. Promoting separation as an option if you disagree with the elected government? The fact that he doesn't seem to understand why his words were so toxic, is just further evidence that he's not fit to lead the country, but lead the Liberals, absolutely. He can count on the Iceman's endorsement, because the Iceman also lives Canada in his bones.

Justin Trudeau: Idiot At Best, Separatist At Worst

Today Justin Trudeau told a Quebec radio host that if he thought "Canada was really the Canada of Stephen Harper" that he would consider making Quebec its own country. This is a remarkably dumb thing for a man who sees himself one day running for Prime Minister to say. Clearly this was not something blurted out on a whim like the "piece of sh*t" cat call in Question Period, but rather something "I always say". He's put a lot of thought into it, with the intended strategy of appealing to the Bloc swing voters who elected all those Dippers last May. This might play well on the Quebec left's cocktail circuit and might make him some new friends; but outside the province, he looks like an idiot at best, a separatist at worst.

"I always say that if, at a given time, I believed that Canada was really the Canada of Stephen Harper and that we were going against abortion, that we were going against gay marriage, that we were moving backwards in 10,000 different ways, maybe I would think of wanting to make Quebec a country."

He's going to have this one thrown back in face for the rest of his political career. I'm sure Bob Rae has no intention of instructing Justin to stop saying ridiculous things. Trudeau has a significant base of support to run for Liberal leader whenever he decides to do so, but shit like this piling up doesn't help his chances. Up until now he was probably Rae's biggest threat, and these self inflicted wounds only improve Bobby's chances of capturing the permanent leadership.

Liberals For Life

Looks like the pro-life wing of the Liberal Party is starting to become more active, but I don't see rampant media accusations that the Party is trying to re-open the abortion debate and threatening women's rights. Instead the conspiracy is that "some federal Liberals fear single-issue pro-lifers are trying to hijack their weakened party." That was the opening sentence of Joan Bryden's recent exposé in the Globe. Thanks Joan. Any mention of the word "abortion" coming from the right is generally like "cat nip" for the left, but they struggle to process it when the words come from their own side.

Remember when Bob Rae tried to pass legislation for Canadian taxpayers to fund abortions in foreign countries? That bill died on the floor of the minority House of Commons because a handful of "Liberals for Life" declined to show up for the whipped vote. Now Liberals for Life are trying to get a pro lifer nominated for the Liberal Party in the upcoming byelection in Jack Layton's old riding. Rest assured Bob Rae will overrule the candidacy even if they succeed, but it will be interesting to see how he goes about stomping out this fire. The Liberals have been attacking a Tory "hidden agenda" on abortion for over a decade. Meanwhile it is an agenda shared by a number of Liberals who don't get anywhere near the attention of Tory backbenchers.

Dalton McGuinty Lied To Voters?

When Dalton McGuinty ran television ads pumping the vigorous health of Ontario's finances in the election a few short months ago, turns out he might have been covering up a serious problem. In his first election victory he promised not to raise taxes, then broke that promise repeatedly and blaming it on Mike Harris. Dalton is now in his third term, so he can't blame this on Iron Mike anymore. This is now on his shoulders. To all those people who re-elected him, this is on you, seduced by the happy smiling face on TV. For more on this story, I direct you to Kelly McParland who wrote a great piece today for the Post.

I decided to move from Ontario to British Columbia in the first half of McGuinty's first term, and I'm happy to be here (even if I want our Premier replaced).

Christy Clark's Downward Spiral Continues

When the BC Liberal Party selected Christy Clark to become Premier of the province, she promised to hold elections promptly to seek a mandate from the people (which she currently lacks). She has since delayed the next election to 2013, which could prove to be a costly mistake considering that her popularity peaked right after she took over the top job. Support for the Liberals has been slowly sliding downward ever since, despite a desperate volley of attack ads against both the Conservative and NDP leaders. The Liberals were at 41% a year ago but now sit at 28%, well behind the NDP at 42% with the BC Tories at 19%. Clark's approval numbers are also falling. In this instance, attack ads are backfiring.

In British Columbia the Conservatives won 45.5% of the vote in the last federal election, and probably 80% of those people voted Liberal provincially. The Liberals won 13.5% of the vote federally, and those people seem to be split about 40-60 between Liberals and NDP provincially. The ideal conditions would be to have 3 functional parties that resemble the federal vote split come election time (45-32-13). The BC Liberals are in a death spiral, and those Conservatives still sitting on the Titanic would be advised to jump in a life boat at the nearest opportunity. They are taking on water and sinking fast. Let Christy do what Christy does best, appeal to the left of center and fight with the NDP for the hearts and minds of the left wing.

Vote Conservative.

Parliament Is Back!

Canadian Parliament is back in session after a lengthy winter vacation, so please try to contain your enthusiasm. Here's what you can expect in the immediate future; the NDP will go bananas on pensions making exaggerated speculative speeches and proclamations that are more fear mongering than actual facts. You won't hear the NDP propose sustainable solutions to a real problem, then again, that's nothing new for the Dippers. Nearly two more months with Nicole Turmel at the helm means that Bob Rae and the Liberals will surely continue to siphon support from the slowly crumbling NDP.

Bobby will be selective in his battles, but the longer he's the alternative voice to Nicole Turmel, the more the NDP will bleed support to the Liberals. I'm trying to get a bet going with "Pundit's Guide" that the NDP will do worse in the next federal election regardless of who wins the leadership. I'm even offering odds. Let's face it, for as much as I dislike Bob Rae, he is a far more deft politician than anyone in the NDP caucus. There has to be at least a few Dippers that wish Bob were running for the NDP leadership instead of the Liberals.