Saturday, April 30, 2011

Why The NDP Will Not Reach Latest Expectations

With recent polls launching NDP expectations to historic highs just days before the 2011 election, rest assured that the Dippers will fall short of these lofty predictions. They will have one of their best showings in party history at the polls, but they will not "touch the sky". The biggest reason is not so much the soft attendance of the swing vote, but rather the election day ground game.

The problem with relying on a whole bunch of people changing their minds at the last minute is that you don't know who they are. The Conservatives and the Liberals already know many of the people who vote for them, and have scrutineers at every polling site getting frequent updates on who has voted. If either party knows you are likely to vote for them and knows you have not voted, they will call you in the afternoon and offer to arrange a ride for you to go and vote. Each party is provided with a list of registered voters for every polling station in the country. They get regular updates which are nicknamed "bingo cards". The NDP are not nearly as diligent with their scrutineers as the two main parties.

Elections are metaphorically comparable to football. The long deep passes might make the highlight reel, but most games are won on the ground. The NDP ground game is largely focused on unions and dependent on union leaders.


  1. It depends what you mean by predictions.
    100 seats or official opposition?

    100 seats (or whatever the precise amount quoted) seems pie in the sky.However, the Quebec surge is real and it is deep. The very bast case scenario for the Libs is that they hang on to official opposition by literaly 1 or 2 seats.

    The TO Star today is endorsing the NDP!!
    I don't suggest that people will care much about their (the Star's) tripe and flock to vote for Jack but it is very telling.

    The Star admits what we already know and that is that the Cons. will have the most seats. However, this endorsement undeniably leads to the conclusion that The Star believes that the NDP will be the alternative choice to the evil Harper. In other words the NDP will be the official opposition.

    The editorial is also a less than subtle shot that they want the Libs to support an NDP led coalition (assuming it is a minority gov't).

    The NDP might get a bit of a pushback at the polls on Monday but I think it is too strong to stop.

  2. "The NDP ground game is largely focused on unions and dependant on union leaders"-

    Gee what about us who arent in unions?No thanks.Ill go with the Cons since they seem to have a good view on the economy as a whole which includes non unionized workers.

  3. If the worst case scenario comes to pass and Jack has 100 seats - you have to ask yourself if the Liberals will really support the NDP in light of this late breaking scandal regarding Layton and his "back" problems. I sincerely hope you analysis is correct. You ARE the numbers guy!!! lol

  4. Layton bashed iggy on his attendance record. What will he do if most of his quebec caucus fails to show up on most days. What if they don't want to move to Ottawa, altho one of them already lives and works in a pub in Ottawa.
    How many of them will fail to be found to make an aceptance speech.
    And how many mothers with underage daughters will support him, knowing he likes underage girls.
    I can't see the liberals lowering themselves to supporting a coalition that will mean PM Layton.
    With the PM missing the wedding those poor cbc/ctv gals had no chance to diss Laureen's hat or dress.

  5. I hope the Toronto Liberals support PM Harper and save the country from porno tax and spend into oblivia Jack-off. Who would of thought Quebec would be willing to bite the hand that feeds then...Alberta.This isn't over yet.

  6. Watching cpac following the campaign in Delta BC, and listening to the ndp woman dissing the oil companies. I wonder if she has ever seen the oil sands, and what that area was like before the oil companies got there. They might get a big surprise that it was nothing but a big huge area of sludge. And ducks did die in it.
    There are still areas not developed, and no one shows those pictures. That oil sludge is sitting on top of the ground and is uninhabitable as compared to how the oil companies have reclaimed that land, planted trees etc.
    Stupid is as stupid does.

  7. Canada's left is realigning, and the NDP surge is real.
    imo Jack will bring home >65% of voters who say they intend to go Dipper.

    But heh, schools out, kids are going home to their own ridings instead of a vote concentration in universities cities.

    The better Jack does the more it brings down the Libs, in seats and moral.

    Libs better hope for a Harper majority so as they have time to reinvent themselves or merge with the Dippers.

  8. After years of casual observation I have reached the conclusion that Progressivism is truly a politically based religion. For the true believer Liberal, NDP, Bloc or Green are different names for the same thing. Yes the Anglican (Liberal) may have differences with the United Church (NDP) which may have differences with the Pentecostal (Bloc) which may be at odds with the Baptist (Green) the fact is that one could attend the other without great discomfort. However it is unlikely any of them other than maybe the Anglican (Liberals) would attend the Catholic (Conservatives) because the true progressive co-religionists believe the Pope is evil incarnate.

  9. The USA Steel Workers Union have donated over the amount of $1000 to the NDP.
    This in my opinion, is to solidify all unions bases between USA and Canada. And when Unions give money, they expect in return that is why taxes have to go up.

    If Layton and coalition had cared for the public, they would have supported the BUDGET.

  10. ICEMAN, you better get ready to do your business in French. This will be LAYTON'S new law.