If the Liberals want to form government in the event of a Tory minority, they don't need to form a formal coalition with the NDP. All they need to do is vote against the throne speech and in theory the Governor General will offer Iggy the keys to 24 Sussex. That's what Ignatieff was talking about today in an interview with Mansbridge. The Liberals would need the support of the NDP and Bloc to pass legislation, but with a healthy serving of socialism and bribes to Quebec, that shouldn't be too hard. It is unclear whether or not Jack Layton would be offered a spot in cabinet, but it is very clear that the opposition are strongly considering voting down the throne speech before we even know what the electorate decides.
So what do you call it if there is not a formal coalition, but instead a different three headed monster?? It would be a combination of socialism and separation by proxy, and a lot less desirable than a Conservative majority. Gilles Duceppe sees a Tory majority as being a hindrance to the Quebec independence movement, whereas an Ignatieff government would help split up the country.
Current best case scenario for the liberal democratic party seems to be 131 seats to 135 conservative seats. That means they still need the Bloc to get an non-confidence through, so the question is, what will the Bloc demand?
ReplyDeleteThe three stooges!
ReplyDeleteIt seems like a crazy system sometimes but what are you going to do? I won't vote CPC, I could live with the Libs, I'll probably vote NDP, I'm not too keen on seeing the BQ with a governing role. I think the party finishing first should get the first crack at forming the government but if the other parties won't support the winner then somebody else has to try or we're going to end up with election after election.
ReplyDelete*sigh* Where this 131 seat to 135 seat Conservative seat you are coming to?
ReplyDeleteThis means the Libs have to gain..what...50 seats? Cons have to lose close to 20?
ReplyDeleteAs I heard it with Mansbridge, Iggy specifically ruled out a coalition, meaning, no cabinet seats for the NDP. Iggy has reneged on the 2008 he signed. This means he is talking of an accord where the NDP and Bloc would support his government.
ReplyDeleteBut as Tom Flanagan said today, seat numbers are everything. To talk like he is, Iggy would have to get about 110 to 115 seats and demonstrate some real momemtum. He has 77 and there is no realistic chance of raising that by 35. If PMSH comes within 6-8 seats of a majority, there are several likely possibilities. Harper could appeal to a few fair minded LIB NDP MPs to support him. He could also deal with Layton if he really had to. If Layton is not to be part of cabinet, why would ne support Iggy and Rae?
If Liberal and NDP numbers are similar, what legitimate reason would they have for defeating the government again? It would be seen by everyone, including the GG as a naked power grab. In a minority situation, I would not expect PMSH to sit passively and wait to be defeated. He has quite a few options left on the table. Of course a majority is the best option.
The key considerations as to whether or not the Governor General will turn to the Liberals to form a government in the event of a defeated minority Tory government are:
ReplyDelete1. Timeframe - the Tories would have to be defeated on the first available opportunity (ie the Throne Speech). If the opposition waits for a future non-confidence motion, the GG would grant Harper a new election.
AND
2. The degree to which the Liberals can convince the GG that they can secure the confidence of the House. A key consideration here would be the size of the Liberal caucus. If it comes in at 75 seats to the Tories 150, the GG will insist upon assurance that the the Liberals have a reasonable shot at having the confidence of the House. This is where the notion of coalitions or accords come into play. Iggy will have to have NDP and Bloc votes in his back pocket ... literally.
JC Kelan
I can't stomach the sight of Iffy, so did not see the interview but have read in the blogs that Mansbridge dragged the confession out of him.
ReplyDeleteAnyone watch the interview and came to same conclusion?
the Amercian Democrat is the LAST leader Canadians want as PM,
the LPC has 1/2 the seats as the CPC
and yet
freaking Bloc separatists can point a finger and say
ZAP you are the next PM of Canada.
And Canadians are supposed to just take it.
Just the same old coalition coup and anyone who does not see it needs to give their head a shake. Mike Adamson needs to know that most people will not tolerate another attempted coalition coup. You can try calling it by another name, but it remains what it is. I recall the failed coup attempt and how extremely angry people were.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone attended an all candidate debate and asked each and every one of them, if elected would you support a coalition, or a coup. Would you leave your caucus and sit as an independent if your leader suggested such a thing.
ReplyDeleteThey don't like that question.
Mark my words,,, or mark Iggy's: he wants people to "rise up" well if he pulls his sneaky coalition I won't be sitting down. I hope nobody sits down.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting how the frustration felt over the electoral situation manifests depending on one's political preference. OTOH, some talk of coalitions as heinous creatures, coups even, despite their obvious legality and constitutionality. The flip side is the prospect of returning a government unwanted by 60% of Canadian voters...perfectly legal and constitutional and yet I'll want to tear my hair out if we elect another Conservative minority government.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny how times change. I grew up in 1970's Saskatchewan...two parties provincially, two essentially interchangeable federal parties with a left wing opposition in the NDP. Today we see a united right wing federally in the CPC, a LP party floating left or right of center depending on their reading of the tea leaves, a left wing NDP and the Big Bad Bloc.It's tough for any party to gain a majority and the CPC has been so tantalisingly close that I can understand the frustration completely.
Coalitions are, for the record, something that Stephen Harper has supported in the past, including with the Bloc. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkF4NC5nUjM and http://www.globalnews.ca/story.html?id=4509509 for more information.
ReplyDelete