Saturday, April 9, 2011

NDP Free Falling In Ontario

On Friday Nanos released new polling numbers that show the NDP has fallen below 15% nationally, which is enough for them to lose about 15 seats. Most of their loses appear to be in Ontario, and could be a signal of pending catastrophic collapse on the morning of May 3rd. This begs the question, why did the NDP even want an election? Their performance in the November byelections were also devastating. Between that and their leader's recovery from multiple health issues, it would have behooved the NDP to reboot and wait a few weeks or months to force an election.

Was the NDP foolishly dismissing what was obvious to everyone else? Did they really think they were going to do well?

On Feb 8 I blogged:

"Truthfully the NDP should not want an election, unless their intent is to bleed enough votes to elect a Liberal minority with them as power brokers. The NDP unquestionably had more bargaining power in 2005 than 2010. I would expect federal parties to always do whatever they can to maximize their vote totals, but maybe it would be better for the Dippers if they donated some votes to the Liberals?"


  1. maybe this is strategically doing this so they can have there elusive coalition. maybe all jacks campaigning is. and act and slowly there is a code word in what he saids that's making the lft loonies support the liberals. just a though

  2. I'm only marginally watching election coverage, but truth is, you barely see the NDP in the news. They're really a *oh yeah, btw* party at the moment. There's a lot out there about the Liberals and Ignatieff in particular. I would say with the NDP it's *out of sight, out of mind*.

  3. Polls are too close from 2008 to predict a big swing. Each party is within the 3.1 margin of error.
    The key is the ground game and I have confidence in the NDP and CPC to do a good job in bringing out their supporters.
    I have been called by NDP volunteers already, see signs on lawns.
    Each MP will have to bring out the A effort to bring out their supporters.
    Will the push for a majority to stop the tax and spend left working to wipe out Lib-NDP coalition in Ontario? I hope so.

    We can pick up a dozen seats in Ontario if NDP sink to 15% and we hold Liberal to 30%. In 2008 we had a 5% lead. If we open a 7-9% lead in Ontario 905 and possibly a couple in 416 will return to Blue camp.

  4. The Nanos rolling polls are good at showing trends but regional numbers are unreliable.400 per day nationwide is far too small and can lead to wild fluctuations in the regions.

    Want proof?

    The Libs had a 7 point increase in one day in Ontario. The cons went up 15 points in one day in the prairies. This has happened multiple times throughout the campaign with this poll.(The Libs gained 15 points in the prairies in one day last week!)

    What is puzzling is that another poll shows a 15 point lead nationally for the Cons.(not much different in the M.O.E. then the 9 points Nanos shows) but has them 15 points ahead in Ontario.

    The NDP had better hope the Nanos numbers are wrong.

    It could be the NDP are getting squeezed by the Cons in the rural ridings and are being squeezed in the cities by the Libs. The gun registry has them paralysed.

  5. *
    yawn. nothing will change and we'll have another minority. i'm staying home with mrs. neo.


  6. I think the nail was hit squarely on the head with this: their intent is to bleed enough votes to elect a Liberal minority with them as power brokers.

  7. I always thought that the NDP were in large part a creation of the popular press. Every time Jack Layton, Steven Lewis, David Lewis, Tommy Douglas opened their mouth the press was there to record their words like they were Holy Writ being proclaimed from the mountain top.

    Suddenly there is a very real chance that the Conservatives will form a majority and the popular press is so worried that it is doing all it can to get the only progressive party that has a chance of forming government, the Liberals that it is virtually ignoring the NDP. Of course with out the popular press pushing its 'pearls of wisdom' the NDP fades from public consciousness.

  8. That's enough Neo..We hear you loud and clear.You and the wife are staying home and not voting.Good for you.Now why bother the rest of us who are fighting the good battle for a majority.Why not go and help the NDP at least.

  9. That is not the real Neo Conservative. It is a troll masquearding as him, just as before.

  10. While only time will tell, I am not totally surprised. The Liberals have campaigned more to the left and more than anything I've noticed many on the left despise Stephen Harper even more than in 2008 thus I think you are seeing an increasing polarization between those on the left who want he removed and those on the right who want him to get a majority. Anyways, the big day to watch for is April 17th as this is five days after the English debates thus we will have a better idea of where the parties stand at that point.

  11. As I see it, Layton has sold out the NDP supporters for a cabinet seat in the coalition, he just hasn't told his supporters yet. Layton is a shifty, dishonest person and is not campaigning against the Liberals or the Separatists. The coalition have a plan already in place, a plan they hatched before they forced the election. The coalitionists would never have forced an election without a plan to campaign as a trio against the Conservatives, while denying they are a coalition. A 3 headed snake campaigning against one other party is more effective then a one headed snake going head to head. Jack has already merged the NDP with the Separatists and Liberals he just hasn't told anyone yet.

  12. That is not the real NEO posting, it is his alter ego, liberal supporter. He has been all over today making an a@@ of himself. ls, otherwise known as ha ha ha, has been missing for several weeks, must have just been released from some mental ward.