Sunday, April 3, 2011

How Safe Is Iggy In Etobicoke Lakeshore?

In the 2008 federal election in Etobicoke Lakeshore, Liberal Leader Ignatieff beat the local Tory 46% to 35%. In Toronto's mayoral election just a few short months ago, Ward 5 went to Rob Ford 56% to Smitherman's 31%. The right wing revolution has taken hold in Etobicoke Lakeshore, and could make Iggy's seat more vulnerable than most people realize. Sure he was not party leader in 2008, and running for Prime Minister has more luster than plain failed leadership contender. It is rare for major party leaders to lose their seats, but Iggy is the most likely of the big 4.

Harper won his seat by 64% in 2008, Layton by 16%, and Duceppe by 32%. Even Stephane Dion won his seat with a 45% margin of victory. Iggy won by 11%. There is no question that Iggy has the most vulnerable seat of any party leader who holds a seat in the commons. It is unlikely he will lose with all the coverage he's getting in the national media, but a blogger can dream, can't he?


  1. If Ignatieff weren't party leader, then his seat would be vulnerable as in both 2004 and 2006 this was the Tories best showing in the 416 area code, however it is pretty rare for party leaders to lose their seats barring a major meltdown. The last time a party leader lost their seat was Kim Campbell in 1993 when her party was reduced to 2 seats. If anything I suspect Ignatieff to increase the Liberal vote here even if they do worse nationally.

  2. I have been reading that he hardly ever visits his riding. People say he drove in from time to time in his limo and chauffeur, walked into his office, then back out. Now he has an office in a high tower completely removed from the people.
    Apparently the people interviewed want a more visible person to represent them. Someone who is in their neighbourhood..and lives there even. Iggy lives in swank downtown toronto in a condo..when he first ran in Etobicoke he was asked if he would move there and he answered absolutely...well...that didnt happen. I imagine Etobicoke feels a bit betrayed on a number of fronts. I cannot answer as to whether his constituents get looked after...there is no word out there on that...but they do want to see a living, breathing representative and Iggy is not willing to do that.

  3. If PMSH gets a majority, Iffy goes back to Haaaavard, he walks away from Etobicoke Lakeshore;
    not that they will miss him, he lives in Yorkville,
    so the good folks in Etobicoke Lakeshore may as well elect the CPC MP, and have a seat in government.

    there is absolutely nothing in Iffy's Family Pack that is a game changer.
    nothing, DOA, even CTV can't spice up that take out order.

  4. Who's running down there? Maybe they need a little more help? Hmm...