Tuesday, April 26, 2011

NDP Projections?

Far be it from me to recommend that polling firm Ekos begin random drug testing of its employees (and CEO), because projecting the NDP to win 100 seats is borderline insane. Today's poll question; how many seats do you expect the NDP to win? It is only fitting that Ekos is the main political pollster for the CBC. There is a 0% chance that the Dippers will win that many seats, and I would wager any sum of money they won't even come close. If the NDP wins 55 seats, they would likely be the official opposition in a Tory majority. 60 seats would be the high water mark, best possible case scenario and even that number I would put below a 20% likelihood.

What do you think?

21 comments:

  1. 100 seats? Someone needs to check the water over at Ekos.

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  2. They must be predicting a total wipeout of the LPC as well, similar to the two seat destruction of the PC Party under Kim Campbell.

    How many seats are they predicting for the LPC?

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  3. This is just another example of Graves helping out his Liberal party, scarin' em back under the big red tent.

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  4. 100? Not likely. I guess EKOS has deserted the Libs for the NDP.

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  5. Remember this, it was almost exactly one year to the day -

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/pollster-frank-graves-apologizes-denies-anti-tory-bias/article1544593/

    It is obvious that the Liberals have been thrown under the bus; time has run out for them. Once again, Frank “Culture War” Graves comes to the rescue against the Tories, trying to get this insane outlier out there in the nick of time. Sad.

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  6. Me thinks that the threat of a Marxist-Laytonist Coalition will do wonders for the Conservatives.

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  7. Another CBC poll eh! Who can you trust at CBC??Next one from CBC will be Liberal majority..YEP that,s it Liberal majority..All other polsters are wrong..Only Ekos CBC poll is right ..Oh well we will get em next election eh!

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  8. someone better tell lowell green cause he is panicking over the ekos poll even though I have never took Ekos seriously. people do

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  9. I can be cynical and say they are trying to lower expectations for Iggy ("They don't suck nearly as much as we thought. Well done Iggy.")

    I think its useful to over state the NDP surge however. The nightmare scenario becomes more real. We need those centrist votes.

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  10. Take the poll and go volunteer for your local candidate. This is your GOTV rally call right here guys. Some races last time were lost by less than a hundred votes.

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  11. Graves is on crack to have the CPC at 33% and the NDP at 28%. If this happens on election day I will be checking myself into the Royal Ottawa.

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  12. Oh and Roy, Lowell is much smarter than that. Basically he is motivating the base to get out and vote and trying to get centrist Liberals to come to the Tories as 'the only way to stop the NDP threat!'. He's a sly one. ;-)

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  13. thats good I listen to him on stream line in B.C on cfra radio on the internet. well I hope he can do it.

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  14. The Big Con.

    Subtitle: How I Learned to Live with the NDP's Higher Taxes, and Love It!

    A quickie primer on Jack's (or Iggy's) promises and costs. Fast read, depressing conclusion. Some macabre humour in between: http://burpnrun.blogspot.com/2011/04/big-con.html

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  15. the next conservative ad should be to stop the NDP hidden agenda

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  16. NDP agenda isn't hidden. Its suicide on its face. The Liberals have a hidden NDP agenda an its not so well hidden.

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  17. CBC and Graves, both doing their absolute best to scare the sheeple back into the Liberal fold.

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  18. Angus Reid just posted poll
    CPC 35
    NDP 30
    LPC 22

    So that is the same 5% diff between NDP and CPC.
    AR had CPC at 36% last poll.
    Dippers are on the move,
    don't under estimate what 'momentum' can do here.

    This is a GOTV election,
    or we ARE talking PM Layton.

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  19. Jack Layton appears to be very unprincipled man who is full of himself, that if given the chance to be Prime Minister would take Canada down a similar path of destruction likened to that of Barak Obama in the United States.

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  20. O% chance the NDP will get at least 100, eh?

    Looks like your punditry doesn't hold much water, there, Iceman... good thing no one took you up on your bet.

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  21. Shit happens. I did not believe that Quebec would drop the Bloc as much as they did. Lesson learned, I should have written 2% instead of 0%.

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