Sunday, April 17, 2011

"Liberal and NDP gains dampen Tory hopes for majority"

The Liberals are up about 1% in the polls to 28%, and the headline at the Globe and Mail is about Liberal gains dampening hopes for a Tory majority? Talk about grasping at straws, where they claim in the first paragraph that "Ignatieff's Liberals are on the upswing". You call that an upswing? A tiny fraction of an increase (and still below 30%) is being heralded as ending Stephen Harper's dream of a majority government. Come on man! That's almost as nuts as Mercer saying his get the students to vote campaign has no partisan objectives whatsoever. Trying to get as many students as possible to vote at school without proper oversight instead of voting when they go back home where most permanently reside. What's wrong with that?...


  1. - No I think he's on a roll

  2. Just wondering, is that 1% raise for the liberals because some of those that stayed home last time are going to vote for a liberal incumbent. Same could be asked of conservative voters, who have an incumbent MP that won by over 10,000 votes and will not bother this time. Unless they can tell me where the gain or loss is I doubt it will make much difference on May 2nd.
    The ballot question is, conservative majority or a vote for the Bloc and the coalition.
    Write the GG and tell him you do not support a coalition attempt to overthrow our elected govt.
    Remember, a PM only has to meet the HofC once a year, so what if PMSH doesn't call the House back for 6 mos, meaning another election if the coalition defeats the SFTT or budget.

  3. They are looking at a different poll, no doubt, but the Nanos 3 day poll for Apr 16 shows Liberals going from 38.8 to 37.4 in Ont.(where it really is crucial for Liberals). Is this not a decline? The national Liberal numbers go from 28.8 to 28.3. Oh well plenty of time yet for Iggy to catch fire.

  4. Based on the riding data on, Tories are leading in 22 seats ... 20 of those are by in the 10-20 point range. Looks like there are 125 seats across the country that are in the bag for the blue. If the Tories still lead by 5-10 the weekend before the election, expect undecideds to move more in their favor to back a winner. It's doubtful they would all break for NDP or Liberals.

  5. If the media keeps reporting the Liberals are on the upswing it may be a blessing for the Tories
    1) A lack of strategic voting
    2) The fear of a Tory majority will have less impact causing non tory voters to drink their latte's and recite Margette Atwood instead of going to the polls.

  6. from the globe article:
    '’s updated seat and vote projections for The Globe and Mail. That is still five shy of a majority and three fewer seats than were projected to go Tory one week ago....

    That seat projection was revised long before this article was written,
    seat projection for CPC is 152 and that doesn't include Nanos recent CPC increase in poll.

    The Libluvin media want to create the illusion of a horse race.

    Scroll down to see the weeks worst/best case senario ceilings.

    CPC low 135, high 178
    LPC low 54, high 101

  7. Experience from the Toronto Mayoral election was full of "hope" for George Smitherman (Liberal) being mayor of Toronto right to the last day with "unrealistic" polls being released all the time. The harder the media pushed the more popular Rob Ford became (Conservative). He won the greatest landslide for the position of Mayor. I don't think most people trust the media anymore to accurately report the news/truth.

    I think actions speak louder than words. The Liberal campaign has a smell of desperation and people smell that.

    The rise of the NDP actually may help the local conservative candidates in the Toronto and 905-belt. The high gas prices will endure love for the provincial government which is Liberal and remind them that Liberals == Taxes.

    It will be interesting because I believe the Conservatives are already in Majority territory.

    Remember the Nanos polls have an error of +/-3% nationally but regionally as much as +/-10% -- look at the stats PDF.

    Take care,

  8. no polls, no msm, no press of any sort. the politicans run in their own riding talk to their own people and no one else. the pm is selected by the party that gets the most seats. no more of this fake pm is the be all end all. our system is not the same as the u.s. and we do not elect our pm separately from the party.

  9. Gerry nails it. MOE is not being reported accurately to reflect no movement in regions can be reported. We need much large samples within regions on a continual basis.
    Making it up and pretending this is a horse race is MSM pushing wafergate redux.

  10. The idea is for the students to vote twice and make two ridings commie instead of just one.