To kick off my new blogging mini-series of Liberals who are vulnerable to Tories and Dippers is none other than St. John's South-Mount Pearl MP Siobhan Coady, who in 2008 barely defeated her NDP counterpart Ryan Cleary by less than 3%. Before that, the riding had been held by the Conservatives for both the 2004 and 2006 elections. The riding is 53% Catholic. Ms. Coady defeated her local NDP candidate by the smallest margin of all her caucus colleagues against the Dippers. She likely owes her victory to Danny Williams ABC campaign, but now Danny boy has made his peace with Prime Minister Harper and is riding off into the sunset.
One has to wonder if Siobhan can win without a popular Premier campaigning against the Tories amid rising Tory support in Atlantic Canada. To make matters worse, the likely Tory candidate in the riding will be Loyola Sullivan, a former Williams Finance Minister and House Leader. I doubt that Danny will be campaigning against one of his own important former cabinet appointees. Moreover, in the aftermath of "wafer-gate" and "foreign abortion-gate", I doubt Coady will be able to carry the Catholic vote in the next election.
Shiboan will be very vulnerable in the next election, be it next week or next year. It would appear as though the Tories have lined up an excellent slate of candidates to run on the rock, many of which have ties to the Danny Williams government. Coady is vulnerable on the right and left; that's never a good combination. I'm sure she would love a non-compete with the NDP in her riding.