Tuesday, February 8, 2011

NDP Free Falling

According to a recent article at the Globe and Mail, the NDP is now officially "free falling" (as Tom Petty would say) and that this has become a two horse race between Liberals and Tories. I have been saying that the NDP should be more worried about the byelection results and have been bluffing their election willingness. Sensing the NDP making too big a deal about wanting an election should have prompted me to downgrade my imminent election probability substantially. I think I'm sitting at a 30% - 40% probability of a spring election.

Truthfully the NDP should not want an election, unless their intent is to bleed enough votes to elect a Liberal minority with them as power brokers. The NDP unquestionably had more bargaining power in 2005 than 2010. I would expect federal parties to always do whatever they can to maximize their vote totals, but maybe it would be better for the Dippers if they donated some votes to the Liberals?

It's an idea.


  1. I think it is inevitable that we end up with a 2 party system (excluding the Bloc). That is the only way I can see any party ever forming a majority again. I think "blue" liberals will migrate to the Conservatives and NDP and Green voters will go to a more left of centre Liberal party. Should be interesting.

  2. Everything the Toronto dirt bag media beaks off about cannot be taken as anything even close to being truthful.

    They aren’t non partisan spectators, they’re players. Everything they report and everything they don’t report is focused around their self interest.

  3. o/t CBC refuses ATI request on cost CBC incurred to submit their own requests thru ATI.
    Keep digging Brian Lilley!