Friday, February 4, 2011

Election Probability Decrease

The probability of a spring Canadian election just fell by a significant margin, as it appears that Stephen Harper's pledge to help low income seniors in the next budget might be enough to give the NDP an excuse to avoid an election they can't want. When I read Ivison's piece in the National Post, my initial reaction was that spring election probability went from 65% to 45%. The Tories are now likely to give the NDP an out to an election. The Liberals are trying to absorb NDP policy. Clearly the Liberal preference is to form government without the NDP, I'll just wait to see what they do with another Tory minority.


  1. What Flaherty is considering is helping senior women, who did not contribute to CPP because they stayed at home to raise a family and did not work outside the home.
    So it is very targeted and right along CPP party lines re: stay at home Moms and childcare/Grannys.

    That is pretty thin gruel for Jack.

  2. Very good for the many widows in Canada who did not work outside the home until their children were raised.
    My mom will be very pleased.

  3. Between this consideration and a new private pension plan Flaherty and the provinces have agreed to,
    farm women, stay at home Moms, self employed women FINALLY can get/contribute to a pension of their own.

    Dippers want to stay the status quo but up the bucks.
    The CPC plan is much much better for women.

  4. Let's not forget that many of those 'non-working' women were the front line in the volunteer work in their communities, contributing their time and talents (and, usually, some of the family budget) to improve life for their neighbours.

    Also, in the early days of CPP, there was a proposal that husbands could make contributions on behalf of their 'non-working' wives, but this was shot down. NAC-SOW or predecessors were particularly vocal in opposing the 'housewife' pension.