Tuesday, June 8, 2010

NDP-Liberal Co-Operation

According to Harris-Decima, the majority of Canadians want to see some form of formal “co-operation” between the Liberals and the NDP. The article in the Globe and Mail doesn't state what the actual poll question was, and they didn't seem to ask any questions about the potential role of the Bloc in a possible coalition of losers. Half of Conservative supporters would also like to see more "co-operation" between the left wing parties, so a big chunk of that "majority" being reported in the Globe want to see an agreement that they believe will benefit the Tories.  Joan Bryden spins it as a majority wanting co-operation because they think it will be the best case scenario for the left wing and as such Canada.  Meanwhile at least 1/3 of that "majority" actually want co-operation because they believe it will help deliver a Tory majority.

Unless there is at the very least a non-compete pact, it is unlikely that the Liberals and the NDP will have 155 seats in the House of Commons needed for a stable government. Without a major shift in the polls, the Libs and Dips each running 308 candidates means that any power grab will have to include the Bloc.  What would a non-compete pact look like? Let's assume that in every riding where the Liberal finished ahead of the Dipper we shifted all Dipper votes to the lead candidate and visa versa where Dippers finished ahead of the Liberals. We can even assume that 100% of the voters shift to the strongest coalition candidate (though I'm sure many Liberal voters list the Tories as their 2nd choice). What would be the new seat count? Tory 113, Liberals 111, NDP 43, Bloc 40, Independent 1. A full non-compete puts the Liberals + NDP at 154 seats, and that is with a 38% to 26% gap between the Tories and Liberals in popular support. You can see why the non-compete treaty is being discussed in Liberal circles. The Liberals can finish a dozen points behind the Tories and still get 154 seats to their coalition.

Obviously the Liberals are concerned that they will lose votes on their right flank if they enter into a co-operation agreement with the NDP, otherwise why would they not do something that allegedly nearly 60% of Canadians supposedly want?

Update: Wendy Metzler on the CBC just said that there have been negotiations on a formal merger, and some of those people have even proposed new names for a united Liberal/NDP party. What do you think a new party of Liberals and Dippers should be named? The Lippers? I would like to make this a poll question in the near future, suggestions encouraged.

19 comments:

  1. On CBC just now, Lib-Dem party in talks....
    name picked for 'possible' new merged party

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  2. Lipper may seem simplistic, but has a double entendre. A Lipper generally refers to a big wad of chewing tobacco in your lip, but it close enough to leper for some subconscious imagery.

    I suppose they could go with Communist Party of Canada, but I think that one is already taken. Look, if the Communists and Marxist Leninists can't get along and join forces, who really can in this crazy, crazy world?

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  3. Wow, Iffy thinks a merger is absurd, and Kinsella is full steam ahead!!
    beauty!

    http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/06/08/liberal-ndp-new-party.html

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  4. Notice how Wendy showed up to work to do a piece "can the Liberal Party of Canada be saved" and she decided to wear a Liberal red outfit?

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  5. to be fair, she is wearing a white coat over her red dress.

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  6. Lib-Dem, by jove I think Ignatieff has lost the confidence of his party.

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  7. The Danforth and Main Party

    BTW...where is Lizzie May?

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  8. If Iffy steps down, Boob takes the crown, and it is a done deal!!!

    The blue Libs should keep the Liberal name?

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  9. Well, lets remember what happened in Edmonton last election, the Liberals threw their votes towards the NDP candidate and she won. In Newfoundland, Danny Boy caused all Conservatives to lose their seats with his ABC campaign. Let's not get too complacent.

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  10. Ignatieff swooped in on Canadian politics with the confidence of General George Custer; we know how that turned out.

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  11. A merged left would be a serious contender, for sure Hunter.

    Iffy is still Liberal leader, he can boot out the ring leaders, see who follows...

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  12. I think when Jack Layton campaigned to be Prime Minister in 2008 a lot of centrists laughed at him, but he might have played a Jedi Mind trick on the left flank of the Liberal Party.

    I know that I for one as a Tory blogger am excited at the idea of commentating on common Lib-Dip policy. When you fuse these two entities together, what kind of f*@ked up Frankenstein monster will be the end result?

    Hunter, we will never have a shortage of things to write about...

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  13. Time for some Liberals to cross the floor to the government! Others will retire, should be interesting to watch.
    I am expecting this to be breaking news on CBC news channel every 10 minutes. Ha Ha

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  14. I dont know.Maybe the joining will surprise us and they will actually have good policies ,fiscal responsibility,and....wait a minute..how are they going to do this again without the Bloc?Talk about me having a momentary lapse of reasoning....LOL!

    Joshua

    P.S.ironic that my word confirmation is SPELLS!:P

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  15. Wonder if Lizzy will kill the Green Party and merge too?
    Grippers? Lib-Grip

    Fascinating decade. PC gone, LPC gone, NDP gone.
    It's all Harper's fault, LOL

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  16. Greens lost a deputy leader or something today.

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  17. The Ditherals.

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  18. Hubter, don't forget that co-operation happened in "Red"monton. I don't think it necessarily sets a trend.

    For instance, what would happen in Outremont ? Does Mulcair get to keep his seat, and what does that do for the Quebec wing of the Liberal Party, always a pleasant little group to deal with.

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