For fun I decided to do a little hypothesis testing this evening. The Ekos kingpin is now proclaiming that the Liberals and the NDP have significant enough polling numbers to form a "two team" Coalition if a new general Election were held today. Despite the fact that Ekos consistently over-values the Green Party (before the 2008 election they averaged the Greens at 10.9%, and they scored 6.8% in the Election), I decided to experiment with some treaty scenarios that could increase the probability of the NDP and Liberals having enough seats to circumvent the Bloc. Mike and Jack could even do a duet of "just the two of us" before the National Arts Gallery.
Since I don't trust your numbers Mr. Graves, I used 2008 as my baseline. What if Layton and Ignatieff agreed to pull candidates in ridings where theirs finished behind the others? Instead of musing about "strategic voting", make it a real strategy. I will even assume that 100% of Libs and dippers defected to the appropriate coalition candidate, even though there are likely a percentage of Liberal voters who cite the Tories as their 2nd choice. Anyway, if you redistribute the votes, what is the new seat count?
Ladies and gentlemen, your modified election results! This is what parliament would currently look like if the Liberals and NDP agreed not to run against each other in any riding.
Andre Arthur 1
The Liberals would be exactly at the precipice of voting down the throne speech for a NDP Coalition without the need for the Bloc. How would your new government break down regionally?
The Tories would fall from 17 seats to 8 seats. Peter MacKay still a Member of Parliament, Gerald Keddy not.
Bloc hit the hardest, losing 6 seats in Montreal alone. The NDP would even add Gatineau. Tories maintain strong support in the Quebec City region, led by the popular Maxime Bernier.
Liberals 52 seats, Tories 35 seats, NDP 18 seats. Most of the prominent Tories would retain their seats, with the exception of John Baird and Diane Finley.
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta
All of 3 seats change hands.
Tories lose 4 seats, 3 to the Liberals, 1 to the NDP.
My suggestion to the Liberal Party, form an official exclusive coalition with the NDP at nearest opportunity.