Thursday, October 7, 2010

By-election Preview

There are four by-elections expected to be called for this November, which should provide a strong indication of where all the parties stand. During the last round of by-elections in which the Tories were the big winners, the Liberals claimed it was not a defeat because they were not expected to win any of the ridings. They will not be able to cover themselves in that blanket a second time, as one of their own Toronto area seats is up for grabs.

In the lone Quebec riding being contested, the Liberals finished within 1000 votes of the Bloc winner in 2008 and need ridings like Haute-Gaspésie if they are ever going to form government again. This was actually one of the relatively few ridings where the Liberals increased their vote total in 2008 over 2006. Nancy Charest ran for them in 2008 and increased their vote total by nearly 7,000 votes. Nancy is known for making critical remarks about Iggy at a cocktail party and is known to be on the Dennis Coderre side of the LPC rift in Quebec last year. Charest will be running for the Liberals again.

The NDP will only be competitive in 1 of the 4 by-elections. They should be able to retain their seat, but if national polling numbers are correct, expect Judy Wasylycia-Leis's 40% margin of victory to be reduced. This riding should provide an indication over how big a price the NDP will pay for saving the gun registry.

The Tories should retain Inky's seat and finished in 2nd place in two of the other ridings. If they are able to win any of the 3 oppositions seats, it would be a significant victory. The name of the game will be "strategic voting", which I suspect already occurs in these ridings. The Liberals are below 10% in Winnipeg North, and the NDP are below 10% in Vaughan and Haute. In Dauphin however the NDP is at 17% and the Libs are at 14%. If the Liberals pulled their candidate, it would shrink the Tory lead from 45% to 31%. In exchange if the Dippers pulled their candidate in Haute, that would theoretically be enough for the Liberals to take a Bloc seat (punishment perhaps for Duceppe leaking coalition secrets)

The Conservatives are unlikely to win Haute or Winnipeg North and a victory in either would be an epic accomplishment. Vaughan however is a much different story. The Liberals fell from 37,000 votes in 2006 to 28,000 votes in 2008, and losing this Toronto area seat would be devastating. Maurizio won his seat by just over 8,000 votes, and if the Tories were able to erase that margin, a number of Liberals in nearby ridings would have plenty of reason to be concerned about their own futures.

The Green Party is not relevant to this discussion.



    Has five contests. I won't consider 3/5 epic. I am confident if the CPC are serious about wiping the Liberals off the electoral map they will make the effort. My prediction is 4/5.

    I don't think any seat is "safe" anymore and GOTV can be mobilized if the EDA exists and the national HQ are serious about winning the riding.

    WPG North is winnable. I did a post on Julie Javier. I don't know how much time Randy spent in the community going door to door.

    The Filipino Community is the largest group. This would be a significant milestone for the community. EAP has been substantial in delivering improvements to the local University and College.

  2. The Pundits Guide listed 4. I linked it above.

  3. Not sure if ALL five are confirmed. Bloc is delaying announcement.

    1. Prince George–Peace River,BC
    2. Dauphin–Swan River–Marquette, MB
    3. Winnipeg North, MB
    4. Vaughan, ON
    5. Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC

    Manitoba 2 seats

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