On Monday Toronto will be voting to elect a mayor. It is expected to be a close finish as Conservative Ford and Liberal Smitherman face off in the polling booths after a long and gruelling campaign. Liberal voices are preparing to claim a victory in either eventuality; saying if Ford wins it represents anti-establishment sentiment and Prime Minister Stephen Harper should be afraid, or if Smitherman wins Liberalism is alive and well in Toronto and again Harper should be afraid.
I will be rooting for Rob Ford, but I won't be holding my breath. Any predictions?
I don't know anyone who is supporting Smitherman - work, family, and customers at my place of work. I have to believe that Ford will win, and by a larger margin than any of the polls predicted.
ReplyDeleteIt is going to be close. But there are several factors leaning in Ford's favor, namely:
ReplyDeletea) according to polls he is in the lead by anywhere between 1 and 8 percent
b) only 39% of voters turned out in Toronto last election and those tend to be the most motivated group, which leads to...
c) the polls show that Ford supporters are much more motivated and dedicated to voting for Ford than Smitherman supporters, and furthermore leads to...
d) the polls showing Ford in a 5 percent lead or higher are based on decided voters which is the group most likely to show up, which leads to...
e) it is supposed to rain this afternoon and evening in Toronto which dissuades many voters especially the left leaning and undecided ones
It is going to be tight. But the wind is at Ford's back right now and in Smitherman's face.