The Probability of Winning Vaughan

Today the Toronto Star reported that former Ontario Police Commissioner Julian Fantino is preparing to run for the Conservative Party in the vacant Liberal riding of Vaughan near Toronto. The Liberals won the seat by 15% in 2008. There were 77 ridings that elected their MP by a margin of 10%-20% in 2006 and 88% of them elected the same party in 2008. If you figure a high profile candidate like Fantino has a better than average chance, you would still only be looking at a 1 in 4 chance of winning the riding. If the Conservatives win this riding, it will be a very significant upset. Fantino does have some detractors in the big blue tent (evidenced by the comments at Blue Like You), so it is unclear if he will be able to raise enough support to pull off the upset.

Here are the results of my statistical analysis on margin of victory and probability of retaining the seat:

*41 ridings won by a margin of 40% or greater in 2006. 100% went to the same party in 2008.

*98 ridings won by a margin of 20%-39.9% in 2006, 98% of them re-elected the same party in 2008.

*77 ridings won by a margin of 10%-19.9% in 2006, 88% of them re-elected the same party in 2008.

*92 ridings won by a margin of less than 10% in 2006, 64% of them re-elected the same party in 2008.