NDP MP Defects To The Bloc Quebecois

A Member of Parliament for the federal NDP defected Thursday to the Bloc Quebecois because he disagrees with new language regarding sovereignty in a recently tabled NDP bill, "the Unity Bill". This defection should not come as a surprise to anyone. The biggest surprise is that there have not been more of these, given that the Dippers ostensibly absorbed a big chunk of the Bloc's voters in the last election, propelling them into official Opposition status. How were they able to attract so many Bloc voters? Part of it had to do with how much people liked Jack Layton, and some of it had to do with the NDP selecting a number of candidates who had previously held membership in the sovereignty movement.

Appeasing the new separatist wing of the NDP was always going to be a delicate balancing act for leader Tomas Mulcair, as he tries to sell his party as a federalist option, both inside and outside Quebec. There would inevitably be people upset if he tilted too far in either direction. Theoretically, this was a no win position from the very beginning. The best idea would have been to postpone making any firm commitment to either side of the debate, instead of going forward with a "Unity Bill". The concern is not only will he lose more MPs, but that wave of new voters they received in the last election may swing back towards the Bloc.

More than anything else, this brewing controversy will give Trudeau a nice big target to attack Mulcair when Justin becomes Liberal leader. We are two years away from the next federal election, leaving plenty of time for this fight to play out. Mulcair kind of finds himself running in quicksand right now. The harder he tries to get out, the deeper he's gonna sink. Has the damage already been done, or can he just go mute on this issue and hope people forget? He has to be careful, since he does not have the "lovable" personality of Jack Layton; who could just praise the so-called "Sherbrooke Declaration" without stepping in the quicksand.

Mulcair risks losing both the nationalists and the separatists. I'll admit, this whole fiasco is probably better news for the Liberals than the Conservatives. Justin Trudeau will soon be the leader of the Liberal Party. Guaranteed he's going to attack this "Unity bill", at least within Quebec. At this point, it is difficult to predict exactly how much this will affect the next election, but right now, the outlook is not good.

Here Comes The PQ!

The slow painful death of Jean Charest's political career in Quebec appears to have finally reached its end, while the separatist Parti Quebecois is poised to recapture the reigns of power lost in 2003. This is by no means a sign that another referendum will be coming anytime soon, but rather an indicator of the weakness of alternative choices. Charest did prove to be a survivor winning 3 elections, a difficult feat for any Premier in any province. But that elusive 4th victory is proving to be out reach. The surprise is not that the PQ is ahead, but that Pauline Marios, not Gilles Duceppe, is leading the way. I really thought Gilles would be the one leading the mothership back to glory, but evidently his larger than life federal persona did not translate into popularity in sovereignty's circles.

Is this the end of Charest's political career? Well there is a power vacuum at the top of the federal Liberal Party. If he has interest in taking a shot at the Prime Minister's job in 2015, his best chance at leadership of a major party would be Liberal. Granted, I still don't believe Bob Rae is giving up his best chance to lead a major federal party into an election, despite what he has announced. I'll believe it when we get to the next election and Rae is not running for the top job. That being said, in the event that Rae does not run, there's a strong chance that the Liberals will choose a leader from Quebec to try and take power and seats away from the NDP (good luck with that).

Justin Trudeau: Idiot At Best, Separatist At Worst

Today Justin Trudeau told a Quebec radio host that if he thought "Canada was really the Canada of Stephen Harper" that he would consider making Quebec its own country. This is a remarkably dumb thing for a man who sees himself one day running for Prime Minister to say. Clearly this was not something blurted out on a whim like the "piece of sh*t" cat call in Question Period, but rather something "I always say". He's put a lot of thought into it, with the intended strategy of appealing to the Bloc swing voters who elected all those Dippers last May. This might play well on the Quebec left's cocktail circuit and might make him some new friends; but outside the province, he looks like an idiot at best, a separatist at worst.

"I always say that if, at a given time, I believed that Canada was really the Canada of Stephen Harper and that we were going against abortion, that we were going against gay marriage, that we were moving backwards in 10,000 different ways, maybe I would think of wanting to make Quebec a country."

He's going to have this one thrown back in face for the rest of his political career. I'm sure Bob Rae has no intention of instructing Justin to stop saying ridiculous things. Trudeau has a significant base of support to run for Liberal leader whenever he decides to do so, but shit like this piling up doesn't help his chances. Up until now he was probably Rae's biggest threat, and these self inflicted wounds only improve Bobby's chances of capturing the permanent leadership.

"How many Harperites does it take to screw in a light bulb?"

"None. They would contract the job out to an ad agency." Ha Ha Ha Ha! Ladies and gentlemen a round of applause for the humour of Liberal leader Bob Rae (via Twitter). Gee, Bobby really missed his true calling as a comedian, though he seems truly oblivious to his own party's rich history of contracting ad agencies. How many ad agencies does it take to promote national unity in Quebec? At least 6. Groupaction Marketing ($1.6M), LafLeur Communication Marketing ($1.3M), Gosselin Relations Publique ($1.3M), Groupe Everest ($1.3M), Vickers and Benson ($250K), and Le Groupe Polygone Editeurs (nearly $40 million dollars in sponsorship funds).

How many Liberals does it take to change a light bulb? I'm sorry, that's a trick question; when sitting in opposition without access to cash stuffed envelopes, they are unable to change any light bulbs. How many cash stuffed envelopes does it take to promote national unity in Quebec? More than we know...

Montreal Should Only Hire French Coaches

As a hockey fan who loathes the Montreal Canadiens, I would like to encourage the franchise to hire only francophone coaches. Why? Because there are so few in the NHL to choose from, and many of them have already coached the Habs (Vigneault, Therien, Julien, Martin, etc) and been fired. Is Randy Cunneyworth the right guy for the job? Maybe, maybe not, but insisting that fluency in French is an absolute requirement severely limits their options. It is not as though the team is loaded with French speaking players and that language harmony is required for the coach to communicate with players. The perceived language requirement is mostly for communicating with local media, which hardly affects the team's on ice performance.

Please Montreal, keep lobbying so vehemently for a French speaking coach that the team is left with no choice but to scratch 90% of the candidates off their list. That's what I'd like to see, the Habs forever doomed to mediocrity.

Bloc Gets New Leader, NDP Plunge In Quebec

Over the weekend the Bloc Quebecois elected a new leader, and it barely made a ripple in the Canadian media. Today Harris Decima released a poll showing the NDP has plunged 16% in support in Quebec since the May election and have fallen into a tie with the Bloc. It appears that the NDP has bled support to all the major parties, not just the separatists. Clearly Nycole Turmel is not helping their fortunes in the one province where she was expected to be popular. Given her inability to speak passable English, she already has a significant challenge connecting with voters outside Quebec. The appointment of Turmel was one of the biggest political gaffes of the year (next to maybe Iggy and Duceppe forcing an election), and they can't pick a new leader fast enough. Forcing the May election did work out well for the Dippers who reached historic heights in the polls.

The interesting question is how plunging support in Quebec will affect the NDP leadership race, as candidates make an array of promises to try and stop the bleeding. This could launch Mulcair to the top of the charts if the membership decides that it needs a Quebecer to maintain what they've got. Then again, Mulcair will never have the personable popularity of a Jack Layton, and they really have nowhere to go but down regardless of who becomes the next leader.

Quebec Suing The Government?

Quebec is going to sue the federal government to try and save the gun registry, or rather the data contained within. Their plan is to start their own gun registry, which is their government's prerogative. If the province would like to go ahead with their own gun registry, then that's their business. The matter of debate is whether or not the data held by the feds can or should be shared with provincial jurisdictions. The Tories have long campaigned on abolishing the registry and were recently elected to a majority government (including MPs from Quebec). The abolition of the registry becomes law in January. Should the gun registry data be shared with provinces who want to start their own registries? That should be a poll question.

Personally I would not object to the Tories sharing limited data about only Quebec residents, but the information of gun owners outside the province should be off limits. Although I am not a gun owner, I have always supported scrapping the gun registry because it is expensive and does nothing to prevent crime. If my province of British Columbia planned to launch a gun registry I would strongly oppose that action and it would affect my vote. However if it is popular in Quebec, go ahead, knock your socks off.

Why We Need A French Speaking Auditor General

While I am not of the opinion that all bureaucrats or judges need the ability to speak both english and french, on the matter of Auditor General the ability to understand french is very important. Quebec is the most corrupt province in Canada and will be the focus of many AG investigations of fraud and financial mismanagement. The Conservatives have announced a unilingual candidate to replace Sheila Fraser, and I agree with the Liberals that this is a serious mistake. It will be more challenging for the AG to hunt down the rest of the missing sponsorship money if he or she does not speak the local language. Come on Mr Prime Minister, we need an AG who can speak french and shake down Bonhome Carnival for information if necessary...

Topp Stumbles In British Columbia

If you happened to listen to newstalk radio in British Columbia today, you are likely aware that NDP leadership hopeful Brian Topp created outrage in his first campaign style trip to our province. He's here to build support for his leadership bid and while on a local radio show declared that Quebec should get more seats in Parliament. The phone boards erupted. I'm not sure if he's aware of this, but there is a significant anger in BC about our under-representation in Ottawa and you aren't going to win much support here by advocating for increased representation for Quebec. Roughly 1/3 of all card carrying NDP members are from BC, making this province the most powerful voting block in the leadership race. I can't imagine that Mulcair will oppose Topp's plan to put more seats in Quebec, which could create an opportunity for longshot candidates like Libby Davies and Peter Julian should they take the populist position.

Topp has already secured the endorsement of the most influential Dipper Ed Broadbent, but it will be difficult for any candidate to win the nomination without substantial support from BC. Topp is a dud and Mulcair is divisive. This leadership campaign could be very interesting. You could end up with a situation where polarization between the top two contenders paves the way for longshot sneak in and win the race, like when the Liberals stumbled into Stephane Dion.

As Charles Adler said recently on his radio show, "some people say that nobody is irreplaceable. Well if Brian top is the replacement, then Jack Layton is irreplaceable."

What To Do With Denis Lebel?

The Conservative Minister of Transport Denis Lebel once held membership in the Bloc Quebecois, so today's poll question; what should be done with him? Should he be disqualified from sitting in cabinet? Would you go so far as remove him from caucus? Or is it okay with you so long as he's not chosen to lead the party? He disclosed this information about his past prior to joining the Tories, so this was known to party officials. David McGuinty was in full throttle attack mode on Monday, questioning the Prime Minister's patriotism. Ironically, the Liberal Party is itself divided on whether or not the NDP leader's former Bloc membership is acceptable or destructive. Granted the Liberals once teamed up with the Bloc in an attempt to overthrow the government in 2008, so it is a little rich for the Liberals to attack the Tories for having a cabinet minister who once had a Bloc membership card as being unpatriotic.

I have no objections to Mr Lebel sitting as Transport Minister, though I never would have appointed him in the first place. He became a junior minister a year after being elected in a byelection in 2007, and was promoted to a bigger portfolio in 2011 after the Quebec Tory caucus was cut in half (the PM had only had 5 MPs to choose from with 4 of them being appointed). Had the Tories won more seats in the province, it is unlikely that Lebel would have been selected to his current post, but the PMO insisted on having as many Quebec cabinet ministers as possible and so here we are. It will be interesting to see which Liberals attack Lebel and defend Turmel.

So Who Leaked Turmel's Bloc Past To The Media?

This is a question that we might never know the answer to, but I'd be very curious to know who informed the media of NDP leader Nycole Turmel's Bloc membership history. This was not something that the Dippers put in their original press release, but it was something known to their leadership. Had this information been easily available, the media would have reported on it when she was appointed interim leader. People knew prior to the NDP's Wednesday announcement that she had previously endorsed a Bloc candidate, but not that she was a due paying member. There have been rumours that the information came courtesy of Tom Mulcair, though at this point such an assertion is just speculation. It just as likely came from the top NDP brass after people on talk radio (CBC Sunday Cross Country Check-up) were openly calling her a separatist.

The leak had to come from either the Bloc or from within the NDP, because those were the only two parties that seemed to know this information. We know that a number of NDP MPs expressed surprise when they found out, so it is unlikely that the party leadership disclosed this information when her candidacy for leader was put to a caucus vote. Guaranteed the Bloc was well aware that she was a member and sending them money, so it is plausible that they leaked it to the media. Either way, this looks really bad to Canadians outside of Quebec and the Dippers would be smart to replace her before Parliament resumes. Then again, they don't want to admit that there could possibly be anything wrong with running people who were once Bloc members now that they are dependent on former Bloc voters for the majority of their caucus.

When I asked my friend who is a registered NDP member what he thought about the NDP gains in the 2011 election; his response, "easy come, easy go"...

Does It Matter That NDP Leader Was A Due Paying Bloc Member?

Today's poll question (borrowed from the CBC Politics Show); "does it matter to you that the interim leader of the opposition once held party membership in the Bloc Quebecois?" Normally I'm not a fan of cutting and pasting CBC poll questions, but in this instance I'd like to see how the Blogging Tory audience responds to the exact same question. The CBC audience went 50% no and 49% yes. The Soloman Show has an audience that is normally about 80% or more left wing, so clearly you have Liberals going both ways on this matter.

Does it matter to you? Who are the Liberals saying yes, and who are the Liberals saying no?

Absorbing The Bloc: NDP Strategy?

When the NDP gobbled up 92% of the Bloc Quebecois' seats in the 2011 election, it might not have been a coincidence, but rather coordinated strategy. I'd be curious to know just how many of the new Quebec NDP MPs are former members of Quebec separatist parties and organizations like their new interim leader. Turmel disclosed her past associations to NDP leadership prior to running in the last election, so the Party knew this information prior to her candidacy and eventual selection as Party leader. What better way to attract Bloc voters than to run Bloc members? The Bloc still had 890,000 votes in 2011, votes I'm sure the NDP are trying to woo.

It is starting to look like Turmel is fast becoming the best thing to happen to the Liberal Party in the last decade. Her interview on Tuesday with Rosemary Barton trying to explain why she joined the Bloc Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire was vague and hardly made any sense. She joined the Bloc because her friend asked her to, and she liked their policy on "scabs". The sovereignty matter was not important, well except that as a member she was also giving the Bloc money allowing them to fuel their fight for independence. Who cares about that, they had good policy on making it illegal to hire replacement workers in the event of a strike. National unity, or no more scabs? Yes, she willingly donated financial resources to an organization dedicated to splitting up the country, but her friend asked her to and everybody hates scabs, right? That was the Rosemary Barton Show on Tuesday.

With each passing day, this leadership selection is just getting worse for the Dippers. However there might be more at play than meets the eye, mostly whether or not the Bloc will even continue to exist without party subsidies. The Bloc was entirely funded by federal tax money, and without that cash, it makes sense to fold the Bloc and put all their resources into the Parti Quebecois mothership. If the Bloc folds, then nearly a million Quebec voters are suddenly up for grabs.

New NDP Leader Nycole Turmel Interview

Having recently watched the first interview I've seen with new NDP leader Nycole Turmel (on the Rosemary Barton Show), my first impression was how much she reminded me of Stephane Dion. That is if Stephane were female and answered most questions with some reference to big labour. I'm not trying to insult leaders who speak broken English, I'm just not sure it is the recipe for success outside of Quebec.

What are your early impressions of the new NDP leader?

She was likely chosen because she is unlikely to compete for the full-time job if Jack Layton is unable to return, allowing the deputies to vie for leadership. But if we come back in the fall and the female Stephane Dion has her hands on the steering wheel, that's not good for the NDP. Sure 60% of their seats are now in Quebec and they could permanently replace the Bloc, but Nycole Turmel will not translate positively nationally. She's a useful MP, but she's not going to increase NDP support outside of Quebec.

NDP Quebec File Shredding Controversy

According to a Candian Press article on the CBC website, there seems to be "several" complaints by the 58 new NDP Quebec MPs that the outgoing MP they replaced shredded all their constituency files, leaving them with no information regarding ongoing issues in their ridings. This is apparently a very common practice in Ottawa, but is significant in this case because some Quebec NDP MPs have spent very little time in their ridings and likely have no idea what the local issues are. Because the NDP rookie caucus knows so little about the ridings they represent, this information is more critical than with parties who put greater thought and effort into candidate selection.

The article on the CBC website doesn't make any mention of just how many of the 58 Quebec NDP rookie MPs had their documents shredded, but they did provide two examples; 1) how an outgoing Conservative shredded files, and 2) how a Bloc Quebecois MP decided to leave behind all his files. They did mention that one Dipper (Borg) found a pile of shredded documents on an office table, but did not mention that it was in a Bloc riding. For the record, of those 58 new Quebec seats the Dippers won; about 90% of them came from the Liberals and Bloc. But there was no mention in the article about Liberal or Bloc MPs shredding their documents, even though they were likely the bulk of the cases. We don't know if outoing MPs like Marlene Jennings, Gilles Duceppe, or Pablo Rodriguez were among the shredders.

Parti Quebecois Revolt Escalates

Another Parti Quebecois caucus member has defected from the separatist party citing Pauline Marois' ineffective leadership as the primary reason. This now marks 4 members who have defected in the last week as the sovereignty movement seems to be collapsing on all fronts. The only hope at this point for those dedicated to an independent Quebec is the NDP. Since absorbing the Bloc Quebecois, Jack Layton has begun taking up the causes once championed by Gilles Duceppe. Now Marois and the PQ are sinking despite the corruption of the ruling Charest regime, and there is no knight in shinning armour coming over the horizon to save them. Is there a provincial NDP in Quebec? If not, the PQ should start one and fold into the new brand as the Bloc did.

Would they consider replacing Marois with Duceppe? Given the result of the federal election this move looks unlikely, but still has to be considered. You may recall prior to Marois selection, for a few days it looked as though Duceppe was going to take the job. His colleagues in Parliament all but wished him farewell before a sudden movement in the PQ rank and file blocked the transition in favour of Pauline. Gilles name is being mentioned as a possible replacement.

Something has got to give. In any event, it is entertaining to watch the separatists die a slow death...metaphorically speaking.

Layton Complains About Lack Of Proportional Representation

On Power Play Thursday Jack Layton had the nerve to complain about getting 32% of the vote in Saskatchewan and zero seats, which he cited as a problem of no proportional representation. In the past the NDP has been an opponent of our first past the post electoral system, but I would have thought after the results of this last election Jack might quiet down on this issue. The NDP were the overwhelming beneficiaries of our non-proportional system in Quebec, winning 59 seats instead of the 32 that 43% of the popular vote would produce. The NDP won 79% of the seats with only 43% of the vote. Will Jack give some of those seats back to the Bloc? The poor Bloc had almost 25% of the vote, but only 5% of the seats.

I'd say a lack proportional representation benefits the NDP. They have more seats in the Commons than a truly proportional system would have awarded them.

Layton Lays Out Terms For Separation

When the NDP absorbed the Bloc Quebecois earlier this month, many wondered just how far into the sovereignty agenda Jack Layton would venture. For starters, 50% plus one, and Quebec should become its own country separate from Canada. Perhaps instead of the NDP we should start calling them the NDPQ, the New Democrat Parti Quebecois? Any other tips and suggestions Jack for splitting up the country? Of course Jack's declaration today only came after being hounded for days on this issue by the Quebec media, with the opposition leader dodging the question. He has flip flopped on the Clarity Act before, but now that he has absorbed the Bloc Quebecois there will continue to be substantial pressure on Jack to adopt a more separatist friendly policy agenda. It is what it is.

NDP Arts Caucus

The NDP has found a 'Quebec friendly' theme for their first term as the official opposition, introducing their arts caucus at a comically bad press conference. Their purpose was to introduce new MPs with a background in the arts, but none of them were actually prepared to have a substantive discussion about the arts. When journalists asked them about arts policy, Charlie Angus told them that the NDP is not the government. "When we are government you will see that platform be brought forward in one of our first press conferences but now we are the Official Opposition so we’re not bringing out our election platform to you and saying we demand this to be implemented". Way to dodge the question Charlie! So the NDP are going to wait until they win an election to announce their policy platform?

The toughest questions for the arts caucus came from the Quebec media. On reporter even asked "why are you holding a press conference here this morning? Are you announcing something? Promising something? Are you worried about the majority you are facing? Do you think that you can have any kind of influence?" You have to enjoy those moments when the journalists attending a press conference have to ask why a press conference is even taking place.

Jack Layton As Powerful As 1980 Joe Clark

Congrats to Jack Layton for now being tied with Joe Clark circa 1980 as the largest opposition ever in a Canadian majority government. Before you go making all kinds of promises to your new constituents Jack, just remember how much Joe Clark accomplished in the last term of Pierre Trudeau, nothing at all. Also there seems to be a belief among Quebec's chattering class that Layton is now Quebec's "strongman" in Ottawa, when in reality he can't accomplish anything more than Gilles Duceppe did. If Quebec Nationalists expect the NDP to be the new Bloc Quebecois, they are in for a major disappointment.

Unless of course Jack's strategy is a Quebec-centric platform designed to retain his seats, but he's still in opposition to a majority government and can't do anything without Conservative approval. He has to be willing to compromise if he's going to accomplish anything for Quebec. As we saw with Budget 2011, Jack wanted everything or nothing. The Tories addressed many NDP demands, but didn't spend quite enough so Jack withdrew his support of the government and forced an election. 60% of what he wanted wasn't enough. For Jack it was everything or nothing and if he takes that attitude into the next session, he won't pass any legislation of substance.