What Jack Layton Would Have Wanted

With a new session of Parliament right around the corner, get ready for the NDP to start telling us what Jack Layton would have wanted. The Dippers have already been injecting policy platforms into their grieving process and soon they'll be saying that we need to follow NDP policy because Jack Layton would have wanted it that way. Perhaps they are within their rights to invoke the posthumous desires of their deceased leader and I'm just a jackass for complaining about it, but it's become uncomfortable to be put in the position of having to repeatedly disagree with a pseudo-martyr. I expect as Parliament resumes it's only going to get worse; and make no mistake, being turned into a martyr to sell NDP policies is indeed what Jack Layton would have wanted...

Jack's Dream Of A Better Canada

As the NDP mourns the tragic loss of their leader Jack Layton and prepare to celebrate his life, many are praising his public service and mapping out his legacy. Scattered throughout the well wishes and condolences, you are hearing NDP pundits saying that we need to "carry on Jack's dream of building a better Canada". This is where I start to get uncomfortable because I strongly disagree with several aspects of Jack Layton's "better Canada" and feel like a jackass for saying that we do not need to become more socialist. You can only hear so many plugs for "social democracy" before it becomes annoying (FYI: social democracy is what all the cool kids are calling socialism these days).

To those on the left I would say that one day even Stephen Harper will pass away (unless we can confirm suspicions that Harper is infact an android not restricted by the boundaries of human life). I'm sure you guys and gals on the left won't be comfortable if we on the right start saying we need to carry on Harper's dream of making Canada a safer place by expanding prison capacity and toughening up criminal sentencing. It makes your opponents uncomfortable when you start pumping controversial policy positions as part of your grieving process. There were many who liked Jack Layton on a personal level who disagreed with the majority of his policies. Please do not use a tragic incident as an opportunity to deify your party platform.

The Future Of The NDP

It has been a sombre summer day across Canada with the passing of NDP leader Jack Layton this morning. He carried the fortunes of his Party on his shoulders, taking the NDP to new electoral heights that few had even dreamed possible. Journalists have been choking back tears all day while reporting on this story and reading Jack's last letter to Canadians. He was well liked even by those who disagreed with his policies because he was always that one politician that everyone wanted to have a beer with.

When the mourning period has passed the NDP has some difficult decisions to make, trying to replace the irreplaceable. Today's poll question; do you think the NDP can sustain its current support in the next election without Jack Layton? There is little to no precedence for this in Canadian history, with Layton being among the first major party leaders to pass away while serving in office. It is very difficult to forecast what's going to happen next. Much will depend on who the party selects as permanent leader. In the near term I expect the NDP to rise in polls out of respect and sympathy for the loss they have sustained.

Goodbye Jack, you will be missed.

In July when Jack stepped down as leader I asked:

IF JACK LAYTON IS UNABLE TO RETURN AS LEADER OF THE NDP, WHO DO YOU EXPECT THE NEXT PERMANENT LEADER TO BE?

Tom Mulcair (29%)
Bob Rae (25%)
None of the above (18%)
Libby Davies (9%)
Peggy Nash (4%)
Pat Martin (4%)
Charlie Angus (2%)
Nycole Turmel (2%)
Linda Duncan (1%)

Layton Filibustering BC HST Referendum

A few weeks back when we were in our federal election campaign, Jack Layton was travelling British Columbia railing against the HST and the need to scrap the tax. Now here we are waiting to receive our referendum ballots in the mail to vote YES to scrap the tax, but we can't because there is no mail service. The federal government wants to force postal workers back to work (allowing us to hold our referendum), and what's the NDP doing? The Dippers are filibustering the legislation, postponing our much anticipated vote. Come on Jack, end the filibuster and let us receive our referendum ballots.

Regarding the HST, I never opposed merging the taxes, my fervent opposition was about the BC Liberals using it to jack up the cost of food, recreation, and various services by 7%. The federal government gave the Liberals the option not to add 7% to all these consumer goods, and that offer was declined. Things from gym memberships to haircuts did not need to become more expensive. You can charge two different rates. This isn't 1930. I'd rather modify the HST than scrap it altogether, but that is not an option on the referendum ballots we are waiting to receive.

Dropping the rate to 10% on all goods and services would easily offset the 7% increase on the smaller basket, I just don't trust the Liberals to do it. They have lied about the HST at every turn; first that they wouldn't do it (during an election campaign), and then the laughable claim that it would be revenue neutral. It is and always was a cash cow. Dropping the total rate to 10% nullifies the bulk of my complaint against the tax, but when I do finally receive my ballot I will be voting yes to scrap it because I'd like to throw some egg in the face of the BC Liberal Party.

The NDP "Socialist Caucus"

Now that the NDP have suddenly become the official opposition in Canadian Parliament, their party's self described "Socialist Caucus" is making demands. There aren't any surprises on the wish list, which includes shutting down the oil sands, nationalizing our banks, boycotting "Israeli apartheid", etc. These policies and positions have appeared in past and current NDP doctrine, the question is will the party turn right or left as it springs into the "mainstream"? How much is there left to win on the left? Clearly the only place to make significant electoral gains is to shift party policy towards the center, but somehow I doubt that Jack is going to do that. You don't become more mainstream by becoming more radical. We have seen in the past that Jack's idea of compromise is getting everything he wants.

What will happen next is the NDP convention when the left wing of the NDP will try and pass resolutions on these policy matters. Layton and the party leadership do have mechanisms to kill or at least mute these resolutions. We'll see what happens.

Layton Complains About Lack Of Proportional Representation

On Power Play Thursday Jack Layton had the nerve to complain about getting 32% of the vote in Saskatchewan and zero seats, which he cited as a problem of no proportional representation. In the past the NDP has been an opponent of our first past the post electoral system, but I would have thought after the results of this last election Jack might quiet down on this issue. The NDP were the overwhelming beneficiaries of our non-proportional system in Quebec, winning 59 seats instead of the 32 that 43% of the popular vote would produce. The NDP won 79% of the seats with only 43% of the vote. Will Jack give some of those seats back to the Bloc? The poor Bloc had almost 25% of the vote, but only 5% of the seats.

I'd say a lack proportional representation benefits the NDP. They have more seats in the Commons than a truly proportional system would have awarded them.

Layton Lays Out Terms For Separation

When the NDP absorbed the Bloc Quebecois earlier this month, many wondered just how far into the sovereignty agenda Jack Layton would venture. For starters, 50% plus one, and Quebec should become its own country separate from Canada. Perhaps instead of the NDP we should start calling them the NDPQ, the New Democrat Parti Quebecois? Any other tips and suggestions Jack for splitting up the country? Of course Jack's declaration today only came after being hounded for days on this issue by the Quebec media, with the opposition leader dodging the question. He has flip flopped on the Clarity Act before, but now that he has absorbed the Bloc Quebecois there will continue to be substantial pressure on Jack to adopt a more separatist friendly policy agenda. It is what it is.

NDP Shadow Cabinet

Jack Layton is expected to announce his shadow cabinet this week, after an enthusiastic speech Monday in front of his new caucus. Libby Davies is on Power Play talking about how excited everyone is to find out who will be sitting in their pretend cabinet. Personally I don't really care since most of their loudest voices (Pat Martin, Paul Dewar, and Tom Mulcair) always have me scrambling for the mute button. The only appointment that I would like to see this week is Ruth Brosseau as the new tourism critic. Other than that, I look forward to learning more about the people who are appointed as I expect plenty of fodder for the political bloggers.

Perhaps someone can tell me what changes with the critics role when a party moves up from 4th place to the official opposition? Yes, they get to speak more on the floor of parliament and might get a few extra interviews, but do they get higher wages or increased office/travel budgets? Will Pat Martin be afforded the ability to travel around the country more than he did previously?

Who Will Become The Permanent Liberal Leader?

Today's poll question; who will lead the Liberal Party into the next Canadian election. The question is not who should be, but who will be. The Party may very well wait 2 years before naming a permanent leader. Will it be someone not currently sitting in Parliament? Surely the Liberals have to have operatives down in the United States scouring the Ivy Leagues for the next false prophet. I strongly suspect the Liberals who want to wait 2 years to pick a new leader are not the same Liberals who want Bob Rae to become leader. The Liberals who are receptive to a merger with the NDP surely are more likely to support Bob Rae.

I did recently ask in a poll question who should be the interim leader, and your response was:

WHO SHOULD BE THE INTERIM LEADER OF THE LIBERAL PARTY?

Stephane Dion (40%)
Ralph Goodale (17%)
Bob Rae (11%)
Dominic LeBlanc (10%)
Justin Trudeau (8%)
John McCallum (7%)
Scott Brison (3%)

Stephane Dion was not included as an option for the permanent job because there is a 0% chance that the Liberals would follow him into another election. It is more likely that the Party implodes and folds into the NDP, following Jack Layton into the next election. Remember, if 100% of Liberal voters instead voted NDP, Layton would be projected to win about 187 seats. Then again, in 2000 the Alliance + PC vote = 38%. After their merger, the Conservatives scored 29% of the popular vote. There was a migration from the Tory left flank to the Liberals, people like Scott Brison, Keith Martin, and Joe Clark.

Jack Layton As Powerful As 1980 Joe Clark

Congrats to Jack Layton for now being tied with Joe Clark circa 1980 as the largest opposition ever in a Canadian majority government. Before you go making all kinds of promises to your new constituents Jack, just remember how much Joe Clark accomplished in the last term of Pierre Trudeau, nothing at all. Also there seems to be a belief among Quebec's chattering class that Layton is now Quebec's "strongman" in Ottawa, when in reality he can't accomplish anything more than Gilles Duceppe did. If Quebec Nationalists expect the NDP to be the new Bloc Quebecois, they are in for a major disappointment.

Unless of course Jack's strategy is a Quebec-centric platform designed to retain his seats, but he's still in opposition to a majority government and can't do anything without Conservative approval. He has to be willing to compromise if he's going to accomplish anything for Quebec. As we saw with Budget 2011, Jack wanted everything or nothing. The Tories addressed many NDP demands, but didn't spend quite enough so Jack withdrew his support of the government and forced an election. 60% of what he wanted wasn't enough. For Jack it was everything or nothing and if he takes that attitude into the next session, he won't pass any legislation of substance.

Jack Layton's One Night Stand With Quebec?

When the Conservatives won 10 seats in Quebec in 2006, Chantal Hebert took a leave of absence from her job at the Toronto Star to write a book named "French Kiss: Stephen Harper's blind date with Quebec" (which ranks #3,658,410 on Amazon's best seller list, behind The Armageddon Factor which is at #2,181,787). So will Chantal take another leave to write a book about Quebec's latest love affair with Jack Layton? If she does, I have some ideas for book titles: One Night Stand, Knocked Up, The French Tickler, Booty Call, The Shocker, or maybe Friends With And Without Benefits.

When you look at the NDP's numbers in the province, the gains are remarkable to the point where they are likely unsustainable. In some ridings they jumped from 10% support in 2008 to over 50% support in 2011 in a province where populist political fads are easy come, easy go. Wooing French nationalists is far easier than maintaining their affection. That takes work, and if you don't deliver they move on to the next fad (which could be Trudeau-mania).

To make matters worse the NDP candidate recruiting and selection procedures were woefully negligent and inadequate. All you needed was to be friends with someone at a riding at office, and you could be nominated, selected, and elected without once setting foot in the area. Did they even go so far as to put an ad in the paper "Run for the NDP"? Maybe the Conservatives have had this wrong all along, trying to recruit top quality candidates and business leaders. Instead we should just try posting possible job openings in the Job Bank or Workopolis. No experience necessary (in fact no experience encouraged), you don't have to spend anything or do anything and you get $150K per year if you happen to win (whether you show up to work or not). I bet you'd get a lot of applications.

Layton's "Mandate For Change"?

Today Jack Layton declared that Canadian voters gave him a "mandate for change" on election day, as though he is suddenly going to pass all kinds of legislation to shake up the country. Jack, it was great that you had this historic night, but has anyone told you that the Conservatives won a strong majority? The Tories got the mandate from the voters, not the NDP. What you won was first place in line to complain. The NDP can't actually do anything without the support of the governing party. Good luck getting Stephen Harper to agree to a carbon tax.

That being said, it is shrewd to come out of the box with policy instead repeating the mistake of Ignatieff, refusing to unveil policy and take no firm positions in the first year of his reign of errors. The Liberals were simply reactionary, and look where it has taken them as a party. By the time Thinkapalooza came around, impressions had already been set. Their demise has been a slow and agonizing death. The NDP are not repeating the same strategic mistake, but going so far as to say they won a mandate is a bit rich.

Which Party Leader Will Lose Their Job First?

Today's poll question; who will be the first political leader to lose their job after the election? Ignatieff, May, and Duceppe have all been colossal failures. Jack has exceeded expectations, though he'll be lucky to get his new supporters to polling booths on election day. If I had to guess, Elizabeth May will be the first to go. Her own party has been trying to turf her for over a year, while Liz has done everything possible to block a leadership review.

As for Iggy, it depends how much of a hurry he's in to get back to Boston. Perhaps one of the reasons for Liberal decline in Quebec are Habs fans not trusting the Boston guy. I could see that. Duceppe is facing catastrophic loses, which could see Gilles getting the ceremonial guillotine.

Many have been musing that the failure to win a majority will be the end of Stephen Harper. I'll believe it when I see it, though it is not impossible. My personal opinion is that Harper has been a very effective leader at navigating a volatile minority parliament. It is very rare in Canadian politics for a minority leader to survive for 5 consecutive years.

Will Layton Be Denied His Happy Ending?

Everybody needs to relax and stop the smear campaign against Jack Layton. Jack is a victim! This is a desperate attempt to deny him of his happy ending on Monday. Just because police raided a rub and tug 15 years ago where Jack was getting a plain and simple massage by a plain and simple therapist, does not mean that he was involved in any of the alleged illicit activities that took place there. Police even told him at the time that he did not do anything wrong except being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Bad luck really.

What I can't seem to find is what happened to the criminal investigation against this establishment? Were they shut down, or are they still operating? I'd like to know more about the massage parlour. What exactly was going on there? This information is not included in the media reports about this story.

The question I'd like to see Terry Milewski ask Jack Layton, is why did he choose to get his massage at this location? Was it close to home, or was it recommended to him? If so, who recommended it? Somehow I don't expect any CBC reporters to heckle Jack with inconvenient questions.

Meet The NDP

If we are to believe the polls and the NDP are about to double their seat count, we should be introduced to many new and fun Parliamentarians. If Dippers are going to start winning ridings they never expected to win, then we will be meeting some kookie candidates that they never expected to send to Ottawa. Be they former communists, vacationing bartenders, or plain and simple enviro activists, these are not the kind of people you want forming cabinet. But they are coming. It is all fine and dandy to protest the ineptitude of the Liberals, but be careful what you vote for. The biggest reason that I oppose a coalition is because it gives the far left NDP dangerous levels of power, but the thought of prime minister Jack Layton is far worse than Jack Layton finance minister...unpalatable as both might be.

The protest vote can be sexy, but proceed with caution.

Layton Getting Cocky

Jack Layton's handlers might want to consider advising the NDP leader to take it easy on the arrogance when he's up on stage. Tonight he was working his crowd with repeated references to himself as Prime Minister, which was all find and dandy until he started saying it then pausing for applause. It felt more like an inauguration speech than a campaign speech as he seems to be intoxicated by the delusion that he has already won. The election at this point is more of a formality than anything. We already know how this story is going to end, so even bother with an election? Is Jack aware that you have to finish in first place to become PM, or does he have something else in mind?

To those trying to spin the NDP surge as most damaging to the Tories, it absolutely does more damage to the Libs and Bloc.

A Vote For Ignatieff Is A Vote For Harper

The Liberals like to say that a vote for the NDP is a vote for Stephen Harper, but after some dramatic movements in public opinion polls, the left will have to consider voting NDP if they want to block a Conservative majority. If you had told the Liberals before their non confidence motion that they would be trailing the NDP 10 days before the election, they might have changed their minds about forcing an early vote. Ipsos has the NDP ahead of the Liberals, and Ekos has them in a tie. Two unrelated polls confirming one undeniable conclusion, the Liberals have big problems. The difference between the two polls is that Ipsos has the Tories at 43% and Graves has them at 34%.

It looks like Jack Layton can staying on the campaign trail that a vote for Ignatieff is a vote for Stephen Harper, and all left wingers should unite around his orange revolution, the only party who can stop a Tory majority.

Jack Layton, Rise Up, Rise Up!

With the leaders debates in our rear view mirrors, it is becoming increasingly clear that Jack Layton was among the big winners, as the NDP has risen back from the brink. The NDP had fallen below 15% prior to the debates, and now find themselves back in 19% range. While Iggy is furiously screaming rise up, rise up at his townhall meetings, the one rising is Layton, not Ignatieff. Today Iggy is hosting a lovefest with Paul Martin and Ujjal Dosangh in Vancouver and I was thinking about showing up but didn't want to pay the cover charge. Paulie M must still have the "midas touch", because the Liberals are charging $20 to get into this event (where you need to book ahead to gain admission).

There's a bad moon on the rise!

Layton Spins Vacationing Candidate With Fixed Election Date Debate

Look, people running for elected office can't possibly be expected to cancel or reschedule their vacations in the event that an election is called; at least that's what Jack Layton is saying. The NDP candidate in Ajax-Pickering was tanning on a Caribbean beach instead of contesting Mark Holland's bid for re-election, and Jack is trying to spin this into a debate on the need for fixed elections dates. Clever spin, but still lacking. This guy wants to run for parliament but can't reschedule a vacation to make it happen?

News flash Jack, this is not 2008 when Stephen Harper called an early election; this is 2011 when the opposition forced an early election. Jack, you voted down the government! You teamed up with the Liberals and the Bloc to force an early election. If you want to be pious about fixed election dates, you should have waited until year 4 to vote down the government. This is a cheap way of validating why one of your would-be MPs is vacationing instead of campaigning.

NDP Attack Ad: Two Thumbs Up

Well done NDP for airing a campaign ad about Ignatieff's poor attendance in the House of Commons. The coalition friendship is not all sunshine and lollipops. Despite being a blogger who apologetically engages in coalition "fear mongering" (as Jane Taber would say), I have enjoyed this line of attack by the Layton team against the Ignatieff regime. This ad is clearly designed for those handful of ridings where the Libs and Dips are going head to head, like Outremont and Parkdale. In the many non-compete seats however, the weakest coalition link is often running absentee campaigns. The Libs won't lose many votes to the NDP in Ajax-Pickering, where the local dipper decided to take a vacation in the middle of the campaign.