Thursday, February 11, 2010

NDP's Quebec/Alberta Devastation

Given EKOS boss Frank Graves new found celebrity at the CBC and the Globe and Mail, I decided to delve inside the numbers and see exactly where the votes are being redistributed. EKOS is redrawing the electoral map, and today's results confirm major changes. Interestingly enough, halfway through this week long poll, Jack Layton announced he has cancer. The results of the poll indicate that the NDP has suffered devastating losses in Alberta (13% to 8.6%, over 1/3 of their votes) and Quebec (12% to 8.3%, nearly 1/3 of their votes) from 2008.

The Quebec numbers are interesting because it indicates a fall of 140,605 votes province wide, but that they are up by nearly 4,000 in Montreal. This puts the NDP at 256,737 votes in the Greater Montreal area, and 300,488 for the entire province. This suggests that the NDP has lost 77% of their votes outside Greater Montreal. Coincidentally EKOS has the Green Party adding 167,069 votes in Quebec (up from 3% to 8%), adding 286,374 in Ontario (from 8% to 13.6%), and adding 614,308 nationally. And that is on top of their take from 2008. It is another example of EKOS being Green! When a polling company consistently overvalues a party by consistent numbers from region to region to region, that is called bias.

In Alberta, the NDP are set to lose their one seat.


  1. Interestingly, EKOS has "other" up a quarter of a million votes nationally. The Marxist Leninist Party is booming!

  2. Amazing. How did they do it? I don't even know who their leader is.

  3. Marx-a-Million will be delighted! :P

  4. Honestly, I am torn. I love the Green Party, but I also love the NDP. In a perfect world the Tories would be at 20%, the Greens at 20%, and the NDP at 20%.

  5. I don't think any poll is worth anything unless you post the exact questions asked, and how the demographic was chosen. Ideally, I'd also like sound bites of the pollsters to get intonation in the questions.
    A poll done mid day by phone isn't going to get a lot of people who work for a living. Likewise most midday man-in-the-street polls.
    If you've ever been polled, you know the questions can sometimes be framed to generate a desired answer.

  6. Just home from holidays,Best news Linda Duncan may lose her seat in Alberta.Glad to be back in Canada.