Can Ignatieff even win Etobicoke Lakeshore?

This question needs to be asked. I have been crunching the numbers on this latest Strategic Counsel poll, and if the Tories are truly polling at 46% in Ontario, any imminent election would not only be a Tory majority, it would be a "bath of blood". I ran the numbers regionally (sorry, I left the Maritimes untouched because S.C does not consider them important enough to list on the Globe and Mail article that I retrieved my polling data from).

Based on the Ontario numbers, I have Ignatieff losing his own riding by 1500 votes. Which would essentially end his Canadian vacation and send him back to Harvard for good. My forecast model has the Tories at 164 seats, Liberals at 61, the NDP at 29, and the Bloc at 53. Give or take an independent. No Greens. The Globe headline was "Tories Flirt With Majority", but I'd say 164 seats is outside the margin of error and well within the comfort range. Where do those 164 come from? 18 new seats in Ontario, I have the Tories losing 4 Quebec seats, 4 more Tory seats in BC, and one new seat in each of the Arctic, Alberta, and Manitoba.

Under these circumstances, here are some Liberal names that would not be joining the next session of parliament: Mike Ignatieff, Ruby Dhalla, Anthony Rota, Joe Volpe, and Ken Dryden. Sadly Bob Rae would retain his seat despite the dismal Liberal numbers in Ontario. My advice to Mike if he gets this election that he says he so desperately needs, you may want to do a lot of campaigning in your own riding. Because as it stands, your own seat might get pulled away in this next round of "musical chairs" and that's with a little help from your "friends"...because with "friends" like Bob Rae, who needs enemies?

Hmm, when I said the Liberals demanding an election in Sudbury made no sense, I must have been right. To all those Liberals who responded with the “you are a Tory blogger so we must do the opposite of your advice” rebuttal; remember some of us pundits are more concerned with making an accurate statement than manufacturing false advice for partisan gain. I have found the challenge to this writing business is making a joke and having people understand it as a joke. I like making jokes, I just haven't figured out how to convince all readers that it is a joke. When I make a comment that I should be afforded the right to enter into a civil union with my golf clubs, that is a joke.

I will turn around and shoot “friendly fire” at my own side if I disagree with the policy, like the HST, but in those situations I abstain from any knockout punches. I am a Libertarian, I have my beliefs, and the party that I agree with the most are the Conservatives.

I also believe that many Canadians finally had a chance to see the footage of our new international singing sensation, and feel better about him today than they did when the polling was done. Stephen may not even need a little help from his friends, but after that touching performance he is more likely to get even more help from a lot more friends. He may have even broken off a piece of the center.

"Music is a discipline, and a mistress of order and good manners, she makes the people milder and gentler, more moral and more reasonable."

-Martin Luther (1483 - 1546)