With the rumours today (thank you CBC for letting me know about it) that some Liberal MPs are considering crossing the floor, I decided to look at which individual Liberal MPs are at the greatest risk of losing their seats (based on recent regional polling data). I would welcome a majority without having to fight an election. So here is my list of MPs who have the most to gain by switching parties, or at least the most to lose by staying put. They are ranked in order of vulnerability. 18 seats I have flipping Tory based on the Strategic Counsel data.
1. Borys Wrzesnewskyj
2. Bryon Wilfert
3. Mike Ignatieff (somehow I doubt he will defect, but funny his name made the list)
4. Bonnie Crombie
5. Gurbax S. Malhi
6. Anthony Rota
7. Mark Holland
8. Rob Oliphant
9. Paul Szabo
10. Joseph Volpe (the Liberals can keep him)
11. Ken Dryden
12. Michelle Simson
13. Ruby Dhalla
14. Andrew Kania
15. Peter Milliken (he'd make a great Tory)
16. Glen Pearson
17. Keith Martin (I feel like he should be a Tory)
18. Frank Valeriote
All these Libs would be better off to sit independently and than seek constituent support in some fashion before jumping to another political party and Harper should hold them to that principal. As they used to say no quarter to the enemy! Let them prove themselves by first leaving their party and secondly separating their vote from the party as independent MPS.
ReplyDeleteIf they are planning to stay in the game they need to first win over their local riding association, win a nomination and then let the people decide if they approve.
I'm not a big fan of floor crossing but I also am not a fan of byelections for the sake of spending more money. To me if someone is lending stability to the government and doesn't plan to run again I don't care whether they change their stripes they'll be judged on their own merit BUT I would prefer they sit as independents till the next election not as brethren to the cause.
Too many Liberal bagmen bought their nomination in methods similar to this where the party brass cut them a deal. I can think of one MP for Etobicoke Lakeshore who doesn't even seem to see the need to actually win an election and one of those is too many.
An interesting list for sure. Glen Pearson stands out because he is local for me and has worked well with neighbour Ed Holder (Conservative London West)before going into politics.
I don't believe Glen's liberal creds, pedigree and loyalties are all that deep and if I am to believe comments I hear from his fire fighter friends Paul Martin practically begged him to run for them. He's too good a man for Ottawa's Liberal crowd and would be more in either of the other two main political parties. It's saying something when the NDP is less extreme then the Ignatieff crowd.
He reminds me of David Kilgour in time gone by and could win under another banner but I hope he does it in an election and not as a floor crosser.
We'll take Keith Martin and Frank Valeriote. There are a couple more that I don't know much about, which is probably a good thing, so I would welcome them too: Szabo, Rota, and Kania.
ReplyDeletePlease, please, Ruby, defect to the NDP. Irrelevance loves company.
Some of these people cannot be trusted, they are only trying to save themselves. It would be better to see ideological differences between the MPs and the LPC that tended towards the right of the political spectrum rather than leftwards. (real conservative)
ReplyDeleteIf their seats are in jeopardy why take them? just so that we can get them elected under a Tory banner?
ReplyDeleteI have seen some of these characters in committee and they are not very impressive
Glen Pearson is no conservative. The man supports polygamy and allowing muslim immigrants to bring multiple wives.
ReplyDeleteYou forgot Ujal Dosange (Mr. 22 vote win) here in BC. There is no way he is going to keep his seat next time and he was a BC NDP so he has already switched once.
ReplyDeleteIf he aske we should say no thanks.
Ujal Dosange was left off the list intentionally because I would not accept him into the Conservative party under any circumstances...
ReplyDeleteI don't think any of them should be outright accepted. I don't trust floor crosser Let them leave the lieberals ,sit as an independent and prove their value to the conservative party. When the next election comes along apply to the constituency to be nominated as a candidate.
ReplyDeleteI agree that if the last election results were so close in these ridings, lets wait for another election to see where the chads fall. Dosanjh is done like dinner next time for sure. And Ice you are bang on about an absolute refusal of Dosanjh if he wished to crossover. Never.
ReplyDeleteWhen he was an NDP minister in BC politics we printed up bumper stickers with a stylized fUjjal on them. Didnt help much but people loved em.