I have taken the time to run some numbers for the upcoming by-elections and have some thoughts on each contest. Predicting results in by-elections has a higher margin of error because people are more likely to "reach" because the PMO is not on the line. They can vote NDP without having to worry about Jack Layton becoming Prime Minister (which I know can never happen, but try saying that to Jack Layton). It is also difficult to measure the effect of the sitting MP not running anymore. At least, I didn't set up my data set to measure intra-election voting. I'm sure somebody out there has isolated the data of "last election, by-election, next election" historically and found a measurable pattern. I have not done that.
1) New Westminster/Coquitlam: This is one of the Tories strongest ridings that they didn't win. It is a poor riding for the Liberal party, either because of lack of support or "strategic voting". It is plausible that a lot of Liberal people voted NDP because the Liberal candidate had no chance. If that is the case, if I were Jack Layton I would be negotiating a deal with Mike Ignatieff to pull the Liberal candidate in the by-election. Having said that; BC voters may use this as a protest vote against the HST, which Layton even said himself on the radio in Vancouver very recently.
2) Cumberland: Obviously the Tories need Casey's votes back. When Casey split from the Tories, he brought with him about 20,000 Tories and 7,000 Liberals. I have absolutely no idea how these people will vote without Bill Casey on the ticket and believe this riding cannot be reliably predicted...at least until candidates emerge and regional polling is done. The ability to win back the Casey votes will depend on the strength of the Tory candidate.
3) Hochelaga: The Bloc will win this seat, guaranteed. But it is a seat that the Liberals should be targeting in the long run if they ever want a significant comeback nationally.
4) Montmagny: This riding is right behind Chicoutimi on the Tory Quebec wish list. In terms of quantity of votes and a 2nd place finish, the Tories have strength in the riding. The problem is that assuming the Liberal vote total is about as low as it can go; the Tories need to peel off 18% of the Bloc vote to win the riding. I'm not convinced that is even remotely possible. Sure the Liberals are imploding in Quebec, but nothing has happened to lure Bloc votes to the Tories. Smart money is on the Bloc, but Conservatives should look to see if they have perhaps closed the gap between they and the Bloc in Montmagny.
As a resident of Cumberland, I have discussed this topic with others in the riding and most share your view ... it is a tough call.
ReplyDeleteStill, there is a feeling that the Tory roots here run very deep and, in the end, it will return to previous voting patterns.
I believe the three main parties have nominated their candidates with none of the three able to claim personal popularity or notoriety that will sway votes on their own. As such it will be strongly influenced by party, leader, etc. It is unclear what the lingering impact of the Casey Factor.
JC Kelan