Sunday, May 1, 2011

The Final Countdown

Tomorrow Canadians head to the polls for our nation's 41st general election. Seat predictions are currently all over the map because there have been some dramatic shifts in Quebec polling numbers that have sent forecasters scrambling to figure it out. For the NDP, the difference between 55 seats and 97 seats boils down to about a 5% range in the exodus from the Bloc. Here are some Quebec scenarios, holding the Tories and Liberals at 18%:

NDP 32%, Bloc 28%; NDP gets 14 seats, Bloc 38
NDP 34%, Bloc 26%; NDP gets 30 seats, Bloc 23
NDP 37%, Bloc 23%; NDP gets 53 seats, Bloc 6

What a difference 5% makes! Personally I'm capping the NDP at 33% in Quebec. I will post my final predictions tonight. My new computer arrived on Friday, and I spent much of Saturday rebuilding my election matrix which was lost when my old computer crashed. Nanos will be releasing new numbers on Sunday night. The Tories are currently about 4% in Ontario short of a majority. To put it another way, a Tory majority is within the margin of error. Maybe we can call that a "statistical majority"?


  1. My hope is that the CPC has enough to gain control of the parliamentary committees, where the real work is done. I think the NDP will want to take a breath and train all the child pylons elected, hoping for a take-over in a few years. The good news might be that the coalition is doomed. The Liberals won't sign on with Jack the stripper, so I honestly hope they re-build so that, when Canada "wants to throw the bums out", it will go to a fiscally responsible Liberal government.

  2. Canada - are you insane? Do you really want the NDP who will take all your money and give it to other people?

  3. We need a new poll for 'What song will be playing on election night at each campaign headquarters.'

    For Ignatieff - London's calling

    For NDP - Afroman 'Because I got High'

    I was gonna vote NDP, but then I got high. Instead i voted for the greens, because I got high. Now Jack Laytons still in fourth place and I know why (Why man?) Because I got high, because I got high, because I got high.

  4. One thing for sure, Albertans are not going to be dictated by LAYTON and cohort Duceppe to speak French or put our oilsands on hold or for that matter be told what we have to do with our recources.

    This election was planned about three years into this making; they refused to vote for the BUDGET. CAPITALISM IS AT STAKE. The msm are willing to sell our recovery nation down the tubes so that we (canada) is reborn under:

    Layton doesn't give a dam about the public.

  5. William in Ajax said...
    The final tally...JMO

    Con 168
    NDP 82
    Bloc 35
    Lib 20
    Grn 3

    Three seats for the greens, but Lizzy crashes and burns!

    Ontarians know what going green means, and won't be voting for any carbon tax and grab!

  6. Anon@758: There isn't a chance in anything that your prediction holds (I've written it down in case I owe you an apology) but I cna't think of a better result than the one you posted!