Tuesday, May 10, 2011

NDP Votes + Liberal Votes = 186 Seats

Now that the NDP are the official opposition they have cooled to talks about a merger with the Liberals, with Ed Broadbent now ruling out the possibility. Meanwhile if you do the math and shift 100% of the Liberal vote to the NDP, the Lib Dippers could go as high as 186 seats. That is of course assuming that all Liberal voters would migrate left, as signs indicate that many Liberal voters shifted right when the NDP surged in the polls. The question is why wouldn't the NDP try to increase the size of their tent and take a shot at 186 seats? Are they becoming arrogant, or are they not comfortable shifting to the center?

The NDP should be embracing merger talks while the Liberals are weak, because right now they have the most bargaining power and can get the best possible terms.


  1. The NDP know that they will be at best an equal and probably a lesser partner in any merger. I don't think they have as much in common with the Liberals as most people think. The Liberals are closer to the current Conservative party on most issues IMO.

    Check out the delusional comment of the week at the Star.
    May 10, 2011 7:44 PM
    Harper could do the right thing
    Harper has a chance to reach out and show a little class for a change. He could do so by invitin 10 or 12 Liberals into the cabinet. By recognizing and tapping into the talent and experience on the Liberal bench, he could calm much of the anger from the election. I'm not holding my breath he will though

    Bizarre that Liberals are that deluded.

  2. Read the party constitution for the Dippers. Hard core Communists. Advocating for state owned everything and the State will decide. Putting them in power would bring about armed revolution in Canada and as much as I don't like the Liberals, Communists they are not.

  3. The NDP stands for democratic socialism, a centralized, planned economy and the welfare state. Though the Liberals are supportive of the welfare state, they are more individualistic and averse to government intervention, usually on social issues. For those reasons, the NDP and the Liberals are ideologically incompatible. It's not like the Red Tories and Reformers coming together.

  4. The thing is, you could never shift 100% of the vote. However, why don't the NDP want to entertain a merger? Simple. They want to squeeze out the Liberal party completely - and they just may do it.

    There is nothing to lose by not merging with the Liberals. Let's say the NDP support collapses in Quebec (with a BQ resurgence) after the voters see how little the NDP can do for them. If that happened the Liberals and NDP would probably be about even in terms of seats. So that would be a fine time to talk merger for the NDP.

    If I was in the NDP I wouldn't want to talk merger either. When your opponent is beaten and bloodied, you don't give him a hand to get up off the mat. The NDP aren't going to do the Liberals any favours, and I don't blame them. The Liberals tried to swing to the NDP's left-wing 'turf', and they get hammered.

    I expect to see both the Tories and NDP try and squeeze the Liberals out of power completely over the next 4 years.

  5. There's a great post on this topic at Angry in the Great White North that's definitely worth a read: http://stevejanke.com/archives/315361.php


  6. The Liberal Party is the political arm of the Toronto, Montreal & Ottawa Establishment. That would include the high ranking government class and the crony capitalists, both of whom need the power of the federal government to maintain their power of hegemony over all Canadians.

    The NDP is the political arm of the government unions and academics, both of whom would love to have the power of the federal government to instigate their brand of hegemony over all Canadians, especially their bosses. ( AKA : the Toronto, Montreal & Ottawa Establishment.)

    Those two merging into one just ain’t going to happen and even if they were able to successfully mix oil and water, it wouldn’t stay that way for long. The fact that some of these desperate uppity ups in the Liberal party don’t see that speaks to why they’re in the position that they find themselves in.

    PS : the Conservative Party is the political arm of all the hard working, industrious and good looking Canadians!

  7. I don't know that there's much "talent" on the liberal bench that we would want in government. The likes of Bob Rae or Ralph Goodale might have political skills but that doesn't mean they are of value to the party or trustworthy enough to be included in any way.
    I think the flaw in the premise of this thread is the assumption that a merged party would gain all of the votes currently going to the two parties.
    If the merged party was controlled by the current NDP then a large number of small-l libs would probably vote conservative going forward. Likewise, if controlled by the Liberal machine, a large block of NDP votes would migrate somewhere else (Green, Communist, some new Union party).

  8. I'm of the mind that the big elephant in the room...the one issue that remains to be seen, yet and is so overwhelming is the success of Jack Layton in having the ability to control all of the fractious elements of his 'new and enhanced' NDP fiefdom.

    As I'm sure Jack,(and many here) is/are aware of the volatility of his party in its present state.
    Jack Layton now finds himself somewhere between a political rock and a Quebec hardspot.

    Pay to much attention to one faction Jack,at the risk of alienating the other side!

    Fail to deliver to both sides with adequate bribes and risk the wrath of both at once.

    Apart from the real threat of having the Party fracture at the Quebec border and then losing your tenure as Leader of the Opposition to a greater majority of seats in Quebec,(with the four Blocquistes possibly joining the 'New Quebec Party'), as the official opposition.

    Jack would then find himself having to skuttle out of Stornoway with loss of face.Something that would be hard for Jack.

    But lets get away from the 'what if' musing and back on track here.

    I'm sure none of this escapes the LPC and in fact makes it most difficult to charter a new course for a failed party of opportunists of the highest order.
    Just what do you do and how do you go about it when its anyone's guess as to the outcome of the above mentioned at this particular time.

    Do you want to be saddled with the stigma of failure that could be attached to a party merger should Jack fall down.
    Should you be ready with a strong leader and party platform in the event that you might still be able to join forces with Jack and form a coalition and fast track to official opposition, should the Quebec wing detach itself and Jack finds himself with too few seats?

    If Bob Rae were the LPC leader then would it be more expedient to absorb the NDP?

    The scenarios are endless at this early time and much too hard to predict with any sense of conviction.
    However being prepared is the 1st rule of successful politics.
    Should Rae prove a tactical problem...well the 'old boys' know he can be removed...its been done often enough with the past few leaders.
    As for Jack and his present two headed hydra of a party in which both sides are hard mistresses... Jack may find it easier to hold onto the shrapnel of a blazing sparkler than to try to hold all the factions of his most unruly party in check.

    All the while pretending to have some tangible influence on the politics of the Dominion.

    What Jack accomplishes will most likely depend on Mr Harper's largess, than any true skill on Mr Layton's part.

    At your pleasure Steve.

    posted by Ohboy