Monday, May 2, 2011

2011 Election Prediction

My final prediction for the 41st Canadian election is right on the border of a Tory majority with the NDP as the official opposition; Conservative 153, NDP 63, Liberal 61, Bloc 30, and 1 Independent. If the final numbers from Nanos are accurate, then the Tories will fall roughly 10 seats shy of a majority, but I believe that the Tory ground game will be the difference maker on Monday. One big question is whether or not the Conservatives can regain representation in Newfoundland, now that Danny Williams is not campaigning against the party. I think the Tories will have a good day in Ontario. Quebec is anybody's guess, but I would not be so quick to predict the death of the Bloc...Though if you saw Duceppe's election eve speech in Montreal, he looked to be fighting back tears. I expect Gary Lunn to defeat Elizabeth May.

PS: Anonymous comments are turned off for the day, so if you'd like to leave a message you'll have to sign in with an ID. If you leave a comment disclosing election results before 7pm Pacific time and Elections Canada gets angry with me, I will send them your IP address. Opinions are welcome, results are not until all polls are closed.


  1. Here's my predictions I have going with my wife and father-in-law:

    CPC - 147
    NDP - 80
    LPC - 60
    BQ - 20
    Ind - 1

    CPC - 148
    NDP - 77
    LPC - 36
    BQ - 47

    CPC - 153
    NDP - 62
    LPC - 60
    BQ - 33

  2. Conservatives 158
    Liberals 72
    NDP 47
    Bloc 30
    Ind. 1 (not Guergis)

  3. CPC 149, NDP 73, LIB 53, BQ 33