Tuesday, May 3, 2011

CTV Mathematicians

At about 7:20 pm Pacific time Monday night, CTV mathematicians reported a 10% chance that the Tories would win a majority. This despite the Tory count being at 130ish with about 80 ridings left to report (many of those in the west). About 40 minutes later their network declared a large Tory majority. Great work CTV math guys! How do you see the Tories at 130 with most ballots left to be counted in Western Canada and say they have a 10% chance of a majority? They reported this 10% chance about 5 minutes after I texted my sister that there was a really good chance of majority. Hopefully none of you eggheads quit your day job.

What's funny is that on election eve Lloyd Robertson was on CTV bragging about the team of mathematicians at their disposal, supposedly brilliant people who tell the story the way it is. 10% chance about a half hour before majority declared. Good call.


  1. Ice...you really need to get rid of this black background...It is VERY hard to read.

    Thank for all your postings - BT's really did help in this election and it is soooo appreciated to have a forum to vent on.

  2. Now we can get a petition started to get rid of funding CBC - total waste of money - they do not even open the books for Canadians to see how money is wasted every year.

    Clown Party

  3. At the same time as they said that 10% nonsense they also said the most the Cons could get was160 seats. My brother and I had the same response as you. By that time we were already breaking out the champagne.

  4. I am so happy that Canadians don't listen to the lefty MSM of CTV and CBC.
    Looking forward to iggy's tell all book!

  5. I noticed two things in the seat counts.

    1) The early results showed fairly robust numbers for the Lib party. This was obviously because of their strength in the East. It appeared early on that the Libs wouldn't do as bad as they feared. Suddenly though the numbers stopped for them. They didn't move.

    2) I noticed too that the Cons. were only 20 seats short of a majority and there were 60 ridings still to report. It did however, take a long time though to comfortably break the 155 mark.

  6. Goodbye to,

    1. Human right's Commissions. Fire all employees now.

    2. Destroy the CBC. Privatize it today. It will be gone tomorrow.

    3. Start having elections for all public officials. Prosecutors, police chiefs, judges, senators, and any other official of critical importance.

    4. Tougher laws. Life without parole for child rape and first or second degree murder.

    5. Change self defense laws to a Castle Doctrine. People in Canada should enjoy the natural right to lethal self defense.

    6. Cut back the public civil service. Chop it by 1/3 today. Go from there.

    7. Start breaking the union's. Tell these clowns that working for the government and living on the dole does not mean making triple what the private sector makes.

    8. Voter subsidy gone. Taxpayers should not be funding any political clown who wishes to run for office.

    9. I could go on an on but the above is a start.

    If Harper fails to act on the above , he should be removed ASAP as there are no excuses to not give back the dignity Canadians have lost over the last 15 years.


  7. I loved your Twitter update about Oda winning by 20000 votes. Man, Canadians must have really been pissed with her, eh? : )

  8. Alot of folks missed it - but the tories have not led in poplular support in Atlantic Canada since the 1988 election. While the liberals did well in the east - it was already a very significant indicator that the Tories would do well in Ontario/BC. Agree about the CTV coverage - I decided to go to bed as I had made the same assessment that majority had to be possible (and I am not a professionally trained mathematician) - and could not stand their reluctance to acknowledge. It is all good - 4 years of stability - yipppppeeeee.

  9. The SUN News coverage was entertaining. Flipping to CTV or CBC was like witnessing someone on a death-watch of a close family member. Sun TV tried to make it like a political tail-gate party, and they weren't too,too out there on the partisan front. I think even a Lib or Dip would have found it entertaining.

  10. Yeah,I saw that 131 CPC seats and 80 still to go,with a minority projected.

    Once again I was yelling at the TV.

    Craig Oliver managed to interview Preston Manning without spitting in his face or bursting into tears. I'm sure the whole CTV crew took a heavy dose of laudanum after the final results were in.


  11. My impression of CTV is that they would not declare a majority even after the numbers were well over 158 for some time. I was yelling at the screen, I don't think they ever really did a major announcement.

  12. Martin, they did do a major announcement, but basically they kept saying, "The big story is the NDP! Let's talk about the NDP! Isn't the NDP doing just amazingly?" And meanwhile the Conservatives actually have a majority government.

    Nobody mentioned that people did not vote NDP; they voted Jack Layton. Layton is likeable. But Layton will not be around forever, and I doubt his likeability is transferable.

  13. Does anyone agree with this....?

    When Mansbridge was chatting with Evon Soloman about the startling trends shaping up, Peter looked palpably pissed off or maybe he was only lost in thought for a few moments, as he strolled back to his regular camera speaking spot. We thought he was furious at the results coming up.

    Oh what does it all mean Santa?

  14. Did any of you hear the liberals congratulate the PM without sarcasm?

    Although conservatives won, there is a lot to be done which is, making sure we don't allow the msm hate continue. we have to remain on top of their secret agenda which they are plotting right now to hinder PM and conservatives.

  15. In Ottawa, CBC pulled a major boob by broadcasting maritime results around 9 EST, about half hour before local polls closed. I clearly saw all results, then the screen went blank. It was like the Eastern show got broadcast in Ont. Wonder what Elections Canada thinks of this, it certainly was illegal. Anyone know the story?

  16. Blinded by the right .... Based on the right wing triumphal arrogance and paranoia in the comments posted here gives me certainty to the revival of the LPC. After a few years of this "right wing moral certitude" Canadians will quickly tire of it.