An excellent question, do you think the Liberals would vote against the throne speech if they finish in 3rd place behind Jack Layton in another Tory minority? If they topple the government, the Governor General would go to leader of the official opposition to ask them if they are willing to form government. At least that's how Iggy told us our democracy works. Would the Liberals help put Layton in 24 Sussex? Somehow I doubt they would. How do you think this will unfold if Jack Finishes in 2nd place and we have a Tory minority?
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You can count on one thing: the Libs will do something stupid.
ReplyDeleteI think even if the Liberal party as a whole does, a number of Libs will then cross the floor and support Harper. They won't serve the NDP.
ReplyDeleteIt would all depend on how close the numbers were.If the Libs drop much below the 77 current seats and into 3rd place, I can't imagine Iggy or anyone telling the caucus how to vote. I can't see all of them following Rae, or whoever over the cliff. In such a scenario I don't think whoever was in charge would entertain the prospect of playing 2nd fiddle to Layton. The liberals are motivated by power, not ideology, and all the real power would rest with the NDP.
ReplyDeleteI think a few individual MPs would support the government, either by refusing to defeat it, or by crossing the floor. Otherwise they could be looking at a total eviseration of the LPC next time around.
That is the point Sheila, all Canadians know is that the Liberal Platform mirrors the NDP platform except for military support.
ReplyDeleteI am not reassured that Liberals will make an about face and side with the Conservatives. Especially since the MSM hounded the heck out of Mr. Emerson to the point where his family were bullied. I expect the treatment would be the same for any Liberal supporting the Conservatives.
All Canadians know the the majority of the national press have both feet planted firmly on the left side of politics.
If the Conservatives end up just a few seats short of a majority (say, 5) and the Liberals finish way behind the NDP (20 or more seats) I could see some right-wing Liberals breaking ranks to support the Tories or even cross the floor to block Jack from becoming PM.
ReplyDeleteHowever if the Conservatives, God forbid, get a diminished minority (say, 135 seats) and the Liberals only wind up slightly behind the NDP or even just ahead, then Harper's days as Prime Minster are numbered. The very first confidence vote will be lost and the coalition - whomever is at its head - will assume power.
Really it comes down to "how much influence would the Liberals have". If they would be a clear minority partner in a coalition I don't see them going for it. They still don't play second fiddle to anybody very well.
I know people now think of NDP and Lib being the same, but that is fairly recent. and the Libs lose their raisin d'être if the NDP are viable. So why would the Libs prop up the NDP? I'm probably thinking too logically and optimistically, but it doesn't seem to be in their best interests.
ReplyDeleteAs long as they DO NOT get a cabinet post. There are to many good, loyal, conservatives that should get cabinet posts. They can sit as back-benchers, where tyhey belong until they prove themselves.
ReplyDeleteFay:
ReplyDeleteIf the Liberals drop much below 70 seats, it will be the 4th straight contest that they have declined significantly. The party would be so discredited that individual MPs could not be forced, threatned by anyone. They would be all powerful for once. If it were real close, I can see a few Liberals saying I am not going into this adventure which will completely destroy
the LPC. The PC party disappeared just a few years ago, the same could happen to Liberals.
In these situations the next election is often devastating to the juniour partner.
It is one thing for Libs to lead a coalition, but I do not think many will like the idea of being a "junior partner" -- it would really be the end of their party identity. There best move would have to depend on some route whereby they could gain time to rebuild. Although many may not realize it, their best bet is a Conservative majority -- but I doubt many Libs have voted that way.
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