Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Most Signficant Defeat?

Today's poll question; which lost seat in Monday's byelections is the most significant? Is it the Liberals losing Vaughan (which they won by 15% in 2008), or the NDP losing Winnipeg North (which they won by 40% in 2008)? Statistically the NDP loss was the larger upset, but the fact that most of the Liberal caucus comes from Greater Toronto means that they need to be afraid. As the votes were being counted, Warren Kinsella was on Twitter saying that he expected Fantino to win by more, and that Julian didn't reach an optimistic projection represented bad news for Conservatives. Nice try Warren, trying to spin a significant Liberal loss as bad news for the Tories.

There was a funny exchange on the Soloman Show Monday afternoon when a Liberal strategist from Bluesky was talking about how the Liberals "decided" to select "grassroots" candidate Tony Genco in Vaughan. Chapstick from the NDP interrupted and reminded his Liberal friend that they only selected Genco after being turned down by Fantino. It wasn't exactly a "grassroots movement".


  1. From damage to spin the Liberals are imploding. The NDP have never reached 20% in p.o.p. in any general election.
    The Liberals raised the big lead and shrinking lead. No on is able to provide any public polling data.
    In the beginning of the race an anon CPC insider said the Liberals are going to win 2/3 seats.
    The CPC were not contested in Dauphin. In Vaughan they overcame a substantial gap with the Toronto Star, CBC and outside groups getting involved in a local by election.

    Maurizio was AWOL for the Liberals and Genco. Was his team? The Liberals spent a great deal of time and energy trying to hold onto Vaughan.

    The NDP made the same mistake the Liberals did in Vaughan. An insider of party politics does not necessarily mean a victory.

    Both the NDP-Liberals took their safe seats for granted and lost them. Each leader made more than four visits?

    The Boy-king JT made visits and appealed to the Italians invoking his daddy. It was NOT enough.

    How much free publicity did the MSM give the Liberals in order to help them in Vaughan?

    The local Liberal in WPG north has been in the community and active for a long time and his network/organization was responsible. I don't believe it was the party of Toronto and their national talking points of planes, prisons etc that was a factor.

    Fantino is connected to his community also through fundraising and local activities. I am surprised he was able to win. I have called for each safe seat to remain to go unchanged. Voters are not happy with the incumbents and sent a message to Layton and Ignatieff.

  2. And don't forget all the campaigning for Genco during QP for the past few weeks.
    Considering all that was thrown against him, Julian's win is a great victory.
    I wonder how many wpg voters have watched the antic of Pat Martin and the female ndpers said, enough, we want someone who will not vote no, regardless of the issue.
    And just maybe all that talk of the kitchen table by Jack, and concern for tax dollars, went out the window after his and his wife's expenses were made public. Seems they only care about those tax dollars if they are spent on themselves.