Forecasting Apathy

There have been some requests in comments to my previous posts requesting that I attempt to forecast voter apathy, specifically the apparent AWOL status of a significant portion of left-wing voters in the 2008 Federal Election. Does the trend continue, reverse, or stabilize? You can't forecast apathy! It is an unpredictable psychological phenomenon. Whether it is not caring enough to vote, or attempting to make a statement by staying home, or you live in a riding where your party typically wins by a landslide and that time it takes to vote could replace 1-3 beers at happy hour. Unless a polling firm has done a poll of voters who voted 2006 but did not vote in 2008, and measured why they did not vote, who they last voted for, and whom they would likely have voted for in 2008, any prediction based on a variable that is impossible to measure under our electoral system will be flawed.

I appreciate Liberal strategists posting comments on my blog to request the type of data required to make an informed decision on whether or not to force an election this fall. To Liberals seeking a quantifiably reliable forecast of expected results if hypothetical trends reverse themselves, you are either chasing fool’s gold or opening Pandora’s Box. I who would like to see a Tory majority am beginning to see Liberals toppling the throne speech as a likely avenue to accomplish the aforementioned objective. As a fiscal Conservative, elections every year are futile and annoying. But as an opinionist, a fall election would increase the number of eyeballs viewing my opinion. Let the chips fall as they may, while my official standing is no election for at least 3 years.