Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Battleground Alberta

I recently had a Liberal loyalist post a comment on one of my "election metrics" blogs that apparently Alberta is in play. I can understand where he got his cup of kool-aid, because Iggy did once praise the tar sands in a speech. If he says it, Alberta will inevitably begin to flock to him like he is a modern age Pied Piper. Right? Let's say hypothetically that a catastrophic shift of 1 in every 4 Alberta Tories to the Liberals occurred (an extreme shift that would be virtually impossible without something like Ralph Klein endorsing Ignatieff). How many seats would the Tories lose? Two Edmonton seats. Here is an even funnier game, let's say the NDP folded in Alberta and their followers shifted en masse 100% to the Liberals. How many seats would the Tories lose? None. That would make things a little tougher on Mr. Jaffer, but they would not lose a single seat if the Liberals absorbed 100% of the NDP vote in Alberta.

So when you see Liberal spokespeople commenting on blogs that suddenly Alberta is in play that is not an educated opinion. I really wonder who is running the numbers over at Liberal HQ. They can't believe that they have a chance at winning an election, and if they do, they are dumber than I ever would have imagined. I hope the Bloc and the NDP call their bluff.


  1. Like I posted here yesterday, the Libs big problem in Calgary, and most of the rest of Alberta, is being able to recruit high profile candidates. This strong Alberta base helps Harper in three important ways--we donate money, give him strong Cabinet/caucus MPs, and we free him up to campaign in other parts of the country.

    Chretien was smart when he didn't campaign in Calgary in 2000--why waste his time ?. Iggy doesn't have the same kind of political smarts, and so will probably make TOO MANY visits here. He's gotta keep up the appearances of being competitive, a national party and all that. But then if he's HERE, he's not campaigning in a close riding somewhere else.

    Many, many problems to solve for the untested rookie Iggy, which will come out during a 36 day campaign.

    Calgary Junkie

  2. I agree with CJ.
    For example,his 'car in the ditch' comment occurred on the Rutherford show and I recollect, became a daily laughable quote.
    Allowing 40 bucks a head at the Stampede breakfast, a HUGE no-no.
    The list is endless but his adoration of Trudeau, while outside Alberta but 'UNDERSTANDING' our rage while inside, is his biggest goof, imo.
    No, we will not trust this guy either and honest, thinking Canadians shouldn't either. We haven't been good enough for him for 3 decades so why start now?


  3. How many women will be sacrificial lambs for Iggy in AB. He has to meet a quota for female candidates. He/Dion never said they had to get elected, just nominated. And how many candidates has he parachuted into other ridingss, like he was in his own riding.