Wednesday, March 10, 2010

How deep are the Liberal divisions?

I am beginning to sense that there are deeper divisions within the Liberal Party than has been made public. They are moving forward with complaints that cast a pox on the previous Liberal Government, that actually highlights negligence of the previous administration. Perhaps the strategists are willing to throw Paul Martin under the bus because his life is out of politics, but how about the ten or so current sitting Liberal MPs who sat in cabinet from 2002-2005? I have yet to hear any rebuttal from these former cabinet ministers as to why they would not have included a monitoring mechanism if they were fully aware of the possibility of torture.

Of the people with the most to lose when we learn more of their incompetence, what proportion are in the Rae camp and how many are in he Iggy Camp? If Bob Rae were feeling spontaneously ambitious in light of Iggy's personal polling numbers, what would be the most likely and least damaging way to replace him? Probably losing an election. I wouldn't think there would be an easy harmless way to replace Iggy without a lost election, unless you could force him to resign which I doubt he's agree to do. Ergo, I suspect some of the driving force behind pushing a losing issue is specifically to lose under the assumption that the scandal diminishes the probability of a Tory majority. Get an election and if it is a Tory minority, Iggy steps down, former NDP Premier Bob Rae steps up and forms a coalition with his former party to defeat the throne speech and ask the Governor General to form Government.

Keith Martin, a sitting Liberal, was the parliamentary secretary for Bill Graham Minister of Defense. I bet you Keith Martin knows a whole lot about what happened. Should Keith have taken the initiative to constantly remind Billy the Graham that they should address torture allegations when drafting a prisoner transfer agreement? John McCallum has probably forgotten more than I'll ever know, but he likely has immunity among his colleagues because he knows where all the proverbial bodies are buried. Bill Graham can't like getting all these interview requests. Is anyone in caucus still loyal to Martin or Graham, or has that loyalty faded into the Rae and Ignatieff camps?

Was the deal that persuaded Rae to capitulate from the leadership race after the fall of Dion an agreement that Iggy gets one election, and if he loses Bob gets to take over? I don't doubt Bob Rae's ambition. Like Iggy, Rae joined the Liberal Party because he thought he could be Prime Minister. Time will tell how this plays out, but if I end up being right, I will be sure to remind you. If the next election were to produce another Tory minority, I would be willing to wager a very large sum of money that the throne speech would not pass.

7 comments:

  1. I think you're right Iceman. There have to be divisions if one group is plowing full speed ahead and the others know what was really going on. But, remember, Bob Rae and Ignatieff were only elected in January 06. They are depending on short memories. Lucky for us, the Internet doesn't have such a short memory.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Like Iggy, Rae joined the Liberal Party because he thought he could be Prime Minister."

    Actually, Iggy has been a lifelong Liberal. He was even a delegate at the convention that elected Trudeau. If anything, thats another reason to dislike him him...but you should at least get your facts straight; you make the rest of us conservatives online look bad

    ReplyDelete
  3. Lib leadership review is in 2011, will Iffy hold off until then, rather than lose an election?

    I think Iffy is hanging all of his hopes on the thinkers conference, being able to use other peoples ideas.
    But that conference may be just as divisive as the Lib day to day events are.
    Libs welcomed a Dipper infestation into their party, now they have to deal with it.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Good question on Keith Martin and what he knew, when.

    Martin's constituency includes the Esquimalt navy base.

    Why would he not want to protect the honor of those serving?

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think the Liberal caucus is split into the Chretien/Martin camp which equals a Rae/Ignatieff camp.

    As Donollo was a Chretien guy, from my vantage point, his (Chretien)stamp is all over the current attitude and behaviour of this group.

    Ignatieff is so inept and inexperienced, I think he is simply a pawn receiving his daily marching orders that is meant to conclude with him marching right over the cliff.

    These guys put a whole new meaning to "dagger in the back"....JC at the helm, imo!

    ReplyDelete
  6. his is an interesting scenario, anything is possible with these main actors. It might explain why Rae and others, continue to push a cause that has no resonance outside liberal commentators and Liberal supporters. This may answer the question as to why Liberals would want to fight an election where they can be portrayed as supporting the enemy Taliban. It is an extremely risky manoeuver, as voters when focused on this issue could well decimate Liberals ranks, giving PMSH his majority.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous, when I said "joined the Liberal Party" I meant join as a candidate. Had Paul Martin won a majority in 2004, Iggy would still be living in Boston.

    ReplyDelete