Monday, September 27, 2010

Martin-Taber Election Speculation

Last week Jim Flaherty gave a speech in which he warned of the fiscal dangers of a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition, which Don Martin interpreted to mean that the Tories want to force a fall election. The Conservatives responded by saying that they will not force a fall election, which is a prudent move given the trends in the polls. Well now Jane Taber wants to weigh in by saying "Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are trying to quash rumours that they’re gunning for a fall election despite the fact some of their own are fuelling them". Really? I'm sure that all the Tory strategists are telling the Prime Minister "we have been stagnating in the low 30s in the polls, what we need is an election that nobody other than allegedly Guy Giorno wants."

Don Martin, Jane Taber, and friends are trying to create the narrative that the Conservative government wants to engineer their own defeat this fall despite a prolonged trend of weak polling numbers. Even Liberal pollster, donor, and culture warrior Frank Graves injected his voice into the debate, prognosticating that the gun registry vote "shifts the prospects of either Liberals or Conservatives achieving majority mandate from implausible to unimaginable." While I disagree with a number of his partisan talking points; he does make one good point that while there may be 14 opposition members who flipped their votes on the registry, there are 22 Conservative MPs in Quebec and the greater Toronto area where it is popular.

I don't know if the Tories will lose votes in pro-registry ridings for sticking with the same policy position that they have had all along. All those people who voted Tory in Quebec and Toronto, did they not know that the party campaigned on scrapping the gun registry? Where opposition MPs flip flopped from their previously stated positions, the Conservatives have at least stayed true to their word on this issue. I don't think that the saving of the gun registry is going to vault the Conservatives into a majority government, but I disagree with Graves’s partisan opinion that it is "unimaginable". The Liberals have not fought an election since the following picture was taken, and it is really easy to imagine the outcome if the ballot box question is Tory majority or Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition.


  1. It's the Liberals who want the election, and their media are providing cover since the party least responsible for causing the dissolution of parliament doesn't have to wear the accusation during said election.

  2. Top ten reasons why the Liberals want an election:
    1. To get rid of Michael Ignatieff
    2. To pick a new leader
    3. To have a leadership race
    4. To sell memberships as they have a leadership race
    5. To boost party coffers by selling new memberships which electing a new leader will require
    6. To hit the reset button leadership-wise
    7. To give the A list another chance to enter the leadership race (Manley, Tobin, McKenna)
    8. To send Michael Ignatieff back to Harvard
    9. To find a leader whose attendance record is better than the final 10 spots
    10. To develop some policies which picking a new leader will allow.

  3. Graves advised the culture war? Donolo has enacted it against the Reform with Chretien in 1990's?

    They are both on script and going to defend the used of wedge politics in order to save their seats. (This is not about winning in my opinion) If you examine the ridings that have flipped from the NDP they were vulnerable to Liberals. He asked Stoffer because of his large margin.
    Ignatieff trotted out props Police Chiefs and women's groups.
    As an urban non gun owner the LGR was NEVER a bright idea when it was introduced in 1995. The auditor general report and numerous studies have confirmed it.
    The coalition are sharing their talking points about the reduction of taxes for "big" business
    and investment in our military and prisons to hold convicted criminals.

  4. cannot understand why the MSM does not pose the simple question - do the opposition parties either revoke their "coalition" status prior to the next election, or do they wish to wear it prior to, and subsequent to, that election ?

  5. The MSM knows the coalition is ongoing.They are not going to inform the Canadian public of the truth. Manipulate the message to hide coalition plans is number one priority for MSM.

  6. I want an election. I think we can win a majority. Votes are more fluid than anyone realizes, especially in an election. I don't much care what others think, but I know you'll all come around eventually. Just a matter of time.

    There is no rush however. I wouldn't pick a fight for no immediate reason... but I still want to fight. I have had enough of this stupid minority house.

  7. What an Iffy coalition looks like from Western Canada (using 2008 election results)

    Nfld/NS/PEI/NB = 21 seats in coalition BC/AB/Sask/Man = 21 seats in coalition

    Quebec = 64 seats in coalition
    Ontario = 55 seats in coalition

    30% of Parliament would have been separatists.

    Western Canadan loses 71 out of 92 govt MPs,
    Quebec would have 3 X the representation of all 4 Western Provinces combined.

    just saying

  8. shud read
    30% of Coalition Government would have been separatists