Friday, September 24, 2010

Next Budget = Next Election

If I had to predict the timing of the next Canadian federal election, I think there is a very high probability that the opposition votes against the next budget. If government spending is currently "out of control" as the opposition alleges, then how can they in good conscious vote in favour of the Conservative's complete agenda of spending initiatives? The Tories are taking flak for spending too much money, giving the Liberals an ideal modus operandi for voting nay on the next budget. It is also safe to say that if the government falls on its budget, the contents of that budget will be a major issue in the election campaign to follow. The budget itself will likely be parlayed in the Tory election platform, so the government would be advised to write a budget over which they could fight an election. A significant reduction in the size of the deficit will be critically important.

If you would like to know the date of the next election, just find out when Jim Flaherty intends to release his next budget, and then count out 36 days from there.


  1. And at that point the PMSH era will come to a crashing conclusion. I just got finished reading the Globe article on the G-summits vaunted 'transparency'. Hard to get down on less than an empty stomach.

    And as I have mentioned previously here to a chorus of 'Get Thee Away,Heretic.', the most transparent thing about this fiasco was it being so transparently Stupid and Wasteful.

    Dead Men Walking. Let's vote and see if I am correct. The suspense is killing me.

  2. Flaherty's economic update comes in Oct/Nov??

    Perhaps that will be the trigger.
    The municiple elections will be over.

    Have the 3 (4?) federal byelections been called yet?

    I suppose Iffy could call Kevin Page a liar, dougf.
    If you check out Iceman's previous post, he links to Kevin Page's preliminary assessment.

    Funny how all this LibDippers think Canada should be on the world stage, but not act like world class players.

    Kinda like Chretien/Martin sending our troops into war in Afghanistan with no equiptment.

    Kinda like Chretien denying we had troops in Iraq supporting the George Bush war,
    yet the lead commander of operations in Iraq was Canadian, and JTF2.

    Keep living in your Enchanted Forest there dougf.

  3. ps
    The G8/20 costs were cheered by Ontario companies and cities.
    It pumped an extra billion bucks into their economy,
    bonus stimulus funding.
    Hotels, limos, service personel, overtime!

    When taxpayers fund the unemployed or junkie kiosks (Insite), the LibDips cheer.

    When taxpayers fund jobs, like manufacturers of 'glowsticks and bug spray', the LibDips boooo.

  4. "Hard to get down on less than an empty stomach."

    Hey, dougf, I feel the same way when I read about the Liberals using the EI surplus to pay down the deficit, or when they leave envelopes of money on tables.

  5. Maybe sooner than we think... three words... FALL ECONOMIC UPDATE

  6. I agree with Christian Conservative.
    Update should include a change to ban taxpayers money to political parties.
    This would Guarantee an election!!

  7. As we saw with the gun registry vote, it's almost impossible to predict what the Lib/Dippers will do. But I would put the chances of a Fall election at around 70 %.

    It is my understanding that the next corporate tax cut kicks in on Jan 1, so I'm pretty sure that Flaherty needs to table legislation for that. There are sure to be a few other financial/economic loose ends for Flaherty to deal with in Oct.

    I think it would be a mistake to put in something re cancelling the $1.95 per vote subsidy. It's too provocative (will galvanize Lib/Dipper base to donate money), muddies the waters (that we are focused on the economic recovery), and goes against Harper's pledge from two years ago, that he would revisit the $1.95 in the next campaign. I like hardball politics as much as the next guy, but it can easily backfire.

    I just can't see the Libs or Dippers letting the corporate tax cut through. Their credibility would take a big hit, and the hawks in their base, who are itching for an election fight, would be very disappointed.

    I think we WANT an election asap, so as to capitalize on the gun registry anger, before it dissipates. The trick for Harper is how to engineer it so that voters place most of the blame for the election on the coalition.

  8. Have you not heard of the Liberal policy of 'stay away so you don't vote on a bill. then say you did not vote to support it.'
    Once again they will 'allow' a token four or five members to vote against the budget, but not enough to bring it down and force an election.