With the end of the NHL regular season in Canada, now starts the long tradition of the home and office playoff hockey pool. I just finished making a forecast list for some friends of mine, and figured that I may as well spread the wealth. The scoring is based on statistics from Feb 1st to the end of the season, and the games played projections are based partially on simple probability/expected value analysis and in part on human predictions.
Assumptions: (with which you may disagree)
1) Detroit will beat San Jose
2) Chicago will beat Vancouver
3) Washington will beat Pittsburgh
4) New Jersey will beat Buffalo
I just cut and pasted this from Excel, so forgive the poor formatting. I am only going to publish my top 48 picks, such that in the unlikely event you are in the same office pool as one of my friends, mon ami will retain at least a late round advantage. Good luck!
Player Team GP PTS
Ovechkin, Alexander WAS 22 32
Backstrom, Nicklas WAS 22 30
Semin, Alexander WAS 22 23
Green, Mike WAS 22 23
Kane, Patrick CHI 21 22
Crosby, Sidney PIT 13 19
Toews, Jonathan CHI 21 18
Sharp, Patrick CHI 21 18
Zetterberg, Henrik DET 18 18
Datsyuk, Pavel DET 18 18
Hossa, Marian CHI 21 17
Laich, Brooks WAS 22 17
Kovalchuk, Ilya NJ 17 16
Parise, Zach NJ 17 16
Keith, Duncan CHI 21 15
Sedin, Daniel VAN 12 15
Elias, Patrik NJ 17 15
Sedin, Henrik VAN 12 15
Franzen, Johan DET 18 14
Malkin, Evgeni PIT 13 14
Roy, Derek BUF 12 13
Zajac, Travis NJ 17 13
Knuble, Mike WAS 22 13
Rafalski, Brian DET 18 12
Holmstrom, Tomas DET 18 12
Filppula, Valtteri DET 18 12
Kesler, Ryan VAN 12 12
Lidstrom, Nicklas DET 18 11
Martin, Paul NJ 17 11
Pominville, Jason BUF 12 11
Kopecky, Thomas CHI 21 10
Fleischmann, Tomas WAS 22 10
Vanek, Thomas BUF 12 10
Zubrus, Dainius NJ 17 10
Thornton, Joe SJ 12 10
Samuelsson, Mikael VAN 12 10
Morrison, Brendan WAS 22 10
Brouwer, Troy CHI 21 10
Heatley, Dany SJ 12 10
Gonchar, Sergei PIT 13 10
Langenbrunner, Jamie NJ 17 10
Ladd, Andrew CHI 21 10
Versteeg, Kris CHI 21 10
Marleau, Patrick SJ 12 10
Bertuzzi, Todd DET 18 9
Clowe, Ryane SJ 12 9
Stastny, Paul COL 7 9
Demitra, Pavol VAN 12 9
Greene, Andy NJ 17 8
Spezza, Jason OTT 6 8
Chimera, Jason WAS 22 8
Seabrook, Brent CHI 21 8
Staal, Jordan PIT 13 8
Kunitz, Chris PIT 13 8
Burrows, Alex VAN 12 8
Clarkson, David NJ 17 8
Bolland, Dave CHI 21 8
My first round picks:
ReplyDeleteWash, Philly, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver, Phoenix.
Phoenix over Detroit? Ardvark, I hope you're in my playoff pool. The only other place we differ is Philly/Jersey. Philly may have won the season series 5-1, but Jersey didn't have Kovalchuck for most of those games. Also, I would take Brodeur over Boucher 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Philly had a different goalie for most of that season series.
ReplyDeleteEast:
ReplyDeleteWash over Mtl in 4
NJ over Philly in 6
Buff over Boston in 6
Pitts over Ottawa in 5
West:
SJ over Colorado in 5
Chicago over Nashville in 6
Vancouver over LA in 6
Detroit over Phoenix in 6
Last year was my worst ever in predicting the playoffs, only got about 25% right, usually hit 50%,we'll see.
DMorris
Upsets are the name of the game. Now we wait and see.
ReplyDelete