Heading into the second round of the NHL playoffs, I have given up supporting who I think will win and I want to focus on who I want to win. I think that it would be outstanding to have a Boston vs Pittsburgh eastern final, and a Detroit vs Vancouver western final. If I had to calculate the probability of those 4 teams all advancing out of the second round to be less than 10%, but that is what I will be cheering for. And yes, if the Canucks and Detroit should meet in the next round, I will continue to wear my Red Wings jersey around the city of Vancouver.
Realistically, Chicago and Pittsburgh are heavily favoured, where the other series are maybe 50-50. Originally I was cheering for a Boston Montreal series, but after seeing Scott Reid on the CBC wearing a Habs jersey, I want them to lose the rest of their playoff games. And sorry to anyone who drafted their pool teams based on my projections. I did not foresee 3 division champions all losing in the first round, though in that vain, I know I'm not alone.
Nice. I went to go take a dump and when I came back San Jose was up 3-0. Ah well, it is a long series and Detroit just played 2 nights ago.
ReplyDeleteI will go with Sid the Kid Penguins.
ReplyDeleteIceman,
ReplyDeleteNothing to do with hockey but looking for a way to bring this in and, with your stats background, thought you might find this marginally of interest. I came across the emergency doctor spokesperson (perhaps self declared) Drummond who was beaking off about big reductions in firearm related suicides and intimate partner (read that as both hetero and homo partner relationships where the latter are more likely to be violent) since the introduction of the gun registry. Sooooo, I went looking for data and came across http://www.sfu.ca/~mauser/papers/forum/FF-gundeaths.pdf where the trend downward starts well before the gun registry and Drummond's attribution to the gun registry is easily disputed by someone with your stats background. And, if you so inclined we can play with the overall homicide data involving guns as well.
The series I am interested in is the Chicago-Van series and, as an Oiler fan, not because I care but because I want to see if the team that reminds me of the Oilers in the early years (Chicago) has the stones.
I checked out your link Gerry. Are you asking me to disprove a theory that the gun registry decreased gun suicides? The graph shows it has clearly been decreasing as a proportion of total suicides since the late 1980s. The suicide rate hasn't much changed. So how are people killing themselves now?
ReplyDeleteFrankly I'm not much interested in comparing gun crime rates between hetero and homo couples. There isn't much data in the link you found, and the sample size visible after the introduction of the gun registry disqualifies any meaningful statistical analysis. If you can find a better data set, I'll check it out.
Not so much a "theory" as an assertion by Drummond (and I wish I could refind the link) as it is the classic assertion of a decline to an event which occurred in the middle of the decline as you noted which started in the late 80s.
ReplyDeleteDid not suggest you compare rates between hetero and homo couples but was merely noting that the euphemism "intimate partner" includes both as well as common law and there are differences in levels of violence by type of relationship so chill on that point.
I had offered more data but it appears you are rather sensitive so I will back out.
If I were sensitive, I wouldn't have answered your question. I just don't know what you expected me to find in the link you sent me. There was no actual data, just a picture. I can't do hypothesis testing without real data.
ReplyDeleteI didn't really think that a post about the 2nd round of the NHL playoffs was going to provoke a debate about people shooting themselves in the head. I do have a posted e-mail address on the right hand side.
ReplyDeleteI'm calling the Vancouver/Chicago series for Chicago in 7 games, but hoping for Vancouver to prove me wrong.
ReplyDeleteI'm calling the Montreal/Pittsburgh series for Pittsburg in 6 games, but hoping for Montreal to prove me wrong.
Detroit over San Jose in 6 games, Boston over Phillie in the same.
The capitals play in such a weak division that it makes them look way better than they are, no surprise they got beaten in round one, no heart.
ReplyDeleteBuffalo is realistically just to small up front and on Defense, again no big surprise.
Chicago is weak in goal and on defense, Canucks in 5.
Detroit will beat the Sharks because they are just a better disciplined team with more heart and skill than the Sharks.
Canucks V Penguins for the cup.
The most interesting series has got to be Vancouver/Chicago,especially after the way Chicago kicked Calgary's and then Vancouver's asses all over the ice last year!
ReplyDeleteI cleaned up on a lot of bets at work when I predicted Chicago would beat hell out of the Canucks,but it was easy to predict after the manner in which they defeated Calgary,a tougher team than Vancouver at that time.
Now,I'd say the Canucks are tough enough and skilled enough to win,but it'll take seven games and should be a hard hitting series.
Washington? Hell,Ovechkin was playing it by himself most of the time,the other guys didn't seem too dedicated to winning,maybe they were pining for the golf course.
Halak reminds me of Hasek, but I can't see him stopping Pittsburgh. Pens in six.
DMorris