NDP MP Defects To The Bloc Quebecois

A Member of Parliament for the federal NDP defected Thursday to the Bloc Quebecois because he disagrees with new language regarding sovereignty in a recently tabled NDP bill, "the Unity Bill". This defection should not come as a surprise to anyone. The biggest surprise is that there have not been more of these, given that the Dippers ostensibly absorbed a big chunk of the Bloc's voters in the last election, propelling them into official Opposition status. How were they able to attract so many Bloc voters? Part of it had to do with how much people liked Jack Layton, and some of it had to do with the NDP selecting a number of candidates who had previously held membership in the sovereignty movement.

Appeasing the new separatist wing of the NDP was always going to be a delicate balancing act for leader Tomas Mulcair, as he tries to sell his party as a federalist option, both inside and outside Quebec. There would inevitably be people upset if he tilted too far in either direction. Theoretically, this was a no win position from the very beginning. The best idea would have been to postpone making any firm commitment to either side of the debate, instead of going forward with a "Unity Bill". The concern is not only will he lose more MPs, but that wave of new voters they received in the last election may swing back towards the Bloc.

More than anything else, this brewing controversy will give Trudeau a nice big target to attack Mulcair when Justin becomes Liberal leader. We are two years away from the next federal election, leaving plenty of time for this fight to play out. Mulcair kind of finds himself running in quicksand right now. The harder he tries to get out, the deeper he's gonna sink. Has the damage already been done, or can he just go mute on this issue and hope people forget? He has to be careful, since he does not have the "lovable" personality of Jack Layton; who could just praise the so-called "Sherbrooke Declaration" without stepping in the quicksand.

Mulcair risks losing both the nationalists and the separatists. I'll admit, this whole fiasco is probably better news for the Liberals than the Conservatives. Justin Trudeau will soon be the leader of the Liberal Party. Guaranteed he's going to attack this "Unity bill", at least within Quebec. At this point, it is difficult to predict exactly how much this will affect the next election, but right now, the outlook is not good.

2013 The Year Of Trudeau

As the Liberal Party prepares to begin it's latest leadership race, polls show that Justin Trudeau could win a majority government in the next election if he is crowned leader. This all but guarantees his coronation this spring. The other leadership candidates would be advised not to borrow too much money in a futile race with an all but certain outcome. While I might have trouble believing these polling results, their mere existence will unquestionably be enough to put Justin over the top. He'll get the lion's share of the media spotlight for the foreseeable future, probably more than NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.

It would be interesting to know what proportion of these 40% of Canadians who would vote for a Trudeau led Liberal Party are saying so just on the nostalgia of name recognition, and how many have actually been following Justin's career in parliament? Many of us who have been following his career in the House of Commons closely have unfavourable opinions of the kid. He has a temper, a tendency to speak of himself in the third person, and he holds policy positions that are farther to the left than most viable candidates. If he had a dog named Kyoto, it wouldn't surprise me.

How will Thomas Mulcair handle a Trudeau victory? The two will never need to work together to collapse the government, since we have a majority and the next election will be on Stephen Harper's terms. There is no question that a resurgence of the Liberal Party will take a giant bite out of the NDP caucus, and one assumes that Mr. Mulcair would indeed like to become Prime Minister. Does Tommy Boy play nice, or does Tom play to win? Your guess is as good as mine.

In the meantime, I'm assigning a 95% probability that Justin Trudeau will be the next leader of the Liberal Party. Who wins the next federal election? That is still too far away to start making predictions.

Rae Calls Mulcair "Mini-Harper"

Bob Rae must be afraid of Tom Mulcair stealing some of his mojo, as today he called the new NDP leader a "mini-Harper", a moniker that is surely offensive in left wing circles. Personally I don't think Mulcair is anything like Stephen Harper and that the comment is more offensive to the Prime Minister than visa versa. The NDP would be lucky if their new leader is as effective and efficient as the man who currently leads a majority government. The comment shows that there is some concern on Rae's part that Mulcair is either a threat to his long-term chances at forming government, perhaps just a short-term threat to steal television time, or both. This much is clear, the Mulcair era is beginning with some nastiness by the Liberal leader, which might be a sign of things to come. Stay tuned...

Bob Rae Infomercials

Today's poll question; how do you see the new Conservative ads about Bob Rae? Are they necessary infomercials? Are they deplorable attack ads? Do you care? Have you even seen them? As a survivor of Bob Rae's Ontario, I see them as infomercials necessary to educate rest of the country about the consequences of Bobby taking power; others see them as cheap "dirty tricks". Why would the Conservatives even target Rae if he's only the "temporary leader? Because none of us believed him when he promised to step aside after 2 years, now he will not deny the possibility that he's running for the full time gig, proving us right. Being the acting leader gives him a decided advantage heading into the not so distant leadership campaign.



I'd rather Mulcair become Prime Minister than Rae, and I'm no fan of Tommy Boy. It does seem as though Tom is trying to tune down the angry man routine, but we will see if that lasts and if he can truly squeeze the Liberal Party in the center. Appointing Libby Davies to be your deputy hardly signals a move to the right.

Mulcair Finishes On Top

The NDP elected a new leader last night, as Tom Mulcair defeated establishment favourite Brian Topp on the 4th ballot. Clearly Topp's biggest mistake was his failure to hire a marching band to follow him around the convention center, putting Tommy over the top. For a party dependent on leadership idolatry for electoral success, Mulcair played it smart to surround himself with such a large entourage, constantly on the move. Those of us who watched Saturday's gong show got to see a never ending parade, almost like he was doing laps around the building while Topp stayed far more stationary looking as though he was on the verge of another nervous breakdown. Perhaps "nice guys" don't always finish last, but they rarely finish first; as the official opposition is now to be led by an attack dog that allegedly would have ran for the Tories had Stephen Harper offered him a cabinet seat.

Still, had the Dippers listened to Broadbent and elected Topp, they would have had a disaster on their hands. He's an effective backroom strategist, but lacks the mental toughness to fight on the front lines. If NDP voters were seduced by the marching band, then it was probably for their own good. Granted, their internet voting was hacked, but party insiders insist the vote result was legit. At the very least it showed us one of the many reasons why internet voting is a terrible idea in federal elections. Is Pierre Poutine still at large? I did not see anyone actually accuse the Tories of a cyber attack, but hey, I fell asleep half way through the 3rd ballot. The accusations will surely be coming in the near future, even if they were thinly veiled over the weekend.

Now that the Dippers have this leadership race behind them, they can get down to what's really important; finding the body of Osama Bin Laden to confirm he's dead, or that he ever existed in the first place. I know how important that conspiracy is to the new leader of the official opposition...

To celebrate his victory, I have even started a Mulcair "tag" on old blog posts if you'd like to read a history of my posts where he was mentioned.

Who Will Be The Next NDP Leader?

With the debates over and the NDP leadership campaign heading into it's final weekend, who do you expect to win? Will it be Mulcair, or will Topp land on top? By the way, prepare yourself for the silly puns if Topp is crowned the next leader. Will Broadbent's last minute attempt to swing momentum from Mulcair to his boy Topp have any significant impact, or did he unwittingly help Mulcair? Will the media be asking questions about Mulcair's hidden agenda, which Ed Broadbent alleges he has? Will Kady O'Malley ask Tom is he believes Osama Bin Laden is dead? These are questions we'll know the answer to on Monday.

At the beginning of the campaign some speculated that the Tories were the most afraid of Paul Dewar winning the leadership, which I'm not so sure about. There is not a single candidate on this list who will even be half as effective in that job as Layton. It's all downhill no matter who they choose. There will likely be a temporary bounce for replacing Turmel, but come the next election, we are looking at a likely fall in seat count (with the severity depending on the performance of the new leader). Nobody has any idea how Topp will perform in the House of Commons, where we at least know Mulcair can yell and scream across the aisle.

For 2013, I call dibs on the headline "Orange Crushed"...

Ed Broadbent Knee-caps Mulcair

With one week remaining before the NDP elects a new leader, one of the party's "patron saints" Ed Broadbent appeared on the CBC Thursday to declare front runner Tom Mulcair essentially unfit for leadership. This was a last minute attempt for Eddy to swing party support towards his man Brian Topp, who has slipped since entering the campaign as the establishment favourite. In the event that Mulcair pulls out a victory next weekend, the Tories have been provided with some excellent clips for the next election campaign. Broadbent pretty much accuses him of having a hidden agenda, that nobody in the party knows what he's going to do.

If Brian Topp finishes on top, not only can you expect that pun to be ridiculously over-used, but many may look back on the Broadbent rant as a possible turning point. Although the Tweets popping up on the TV screen during the interview were more along the lines of Eddy coming across as a grumpy old man, so it remains to be seen how much damage he did to Mulcair's candidacy, if any at all.

Dippers Say The Darndest Things

On Sunday the NDP will have their first leadership debate, which may or may not produce the next hot sound clip for the next election. Today's poll question; which NDP leadership candidate will produce the most "memorable" quote in the leader's debates? Memorable in the same way that Ignatieff's "we didn't get it done" knocked Stephane Dion off the rails once upon a time.

There are 9 names to choose from:

1) Brian Topp: most likely to screw up on a stage in front of the cameras.

2) Paul Dewar: plays the self-righteous blowhard better than anybody.

3) Tom Mulcair: I'd love for Tom to tell us what he really thinks about international terrorism. The most gaffe prone in the field.

4) Peggy Nash: She's likely to make the most in spending promises.

5) Niki Ashton: I don't know anything about this person.

6) Romeo Saganash: I don't know anything about this person.

7) Martin Singh: I don't know anything about this person.

8) Robert Chisholm: I don't know anything about this person.

9) Nathan Cullen: Least likely to make a gaffe. He's a savvy media guy.

NDP Leadership Debates Kick Off Sunday

Just a heads up to political junkies out there, the NDP will be having their first official leadership debate on Sunday. While many of us are disappointed that Libby Davies will not be participating, the festivities should still produce memorable quotes which can be used as campaign fodder. Brian Topp has been the hand picked front runner thus far, though Mulcair and Dewar are unlikely to waste the opportunity to take some shots at the establishment candidate. What will be interesting is whether or not any of them will deviate from current party policy left behind by Jack Layton, and blaze forward with their own juicy initiatives. Or will this debate be about who would do the best job of enacting the policies of Jack Layton?

There's a strong chance that aboriginal affairs will dominate the discussion given the recent emergency in Northern Ontario. Who will make the biggest spending promise? Guaranteed there will be some very colossal dollar figures thrown around in this debate. This should be entertaining television for those of us who follow politics closely, though we will be lacking the wild and crazy ideas of Libby. Expect Peggy Nash to lead the way on dollars promised to public sector union workers, with the 8 other contestants clamouring behind to try and court that crucial demographic of the NDP constituency.

NDP "Whisper Campaign" Against Tom Mulcair?

Thomas Mulcair loves a good conspiracy theory. Now he believes that he's the victim of a "whisper campaign" among his NDP colleagues speculating that he has a bad temper. There is allegedly a "movement" against his leadership bid coming from within, and he's not happy about it! Is the source of this smear campaign "the front runner" Brian Topp? As Mulcair puts it, that's for the membership to decide. Considering he's being accused of having a bad temper, he certainly comes off as aggravated in the interview with left wing journalist Barbara Yaffe. (an aside: you might remember Barbara Yaffe from her op-ed in Nov 2009 fawning over the hiring of Donolo to run Ignatieff's campaign. As she put it, "he will almost certainly make a huge difference to Ignatieff's fortunes as leader." How did that work out Barb?)

Anyway, back to Mulcair. My advice to him is to relax. The NDP is a party currently built on the inherent likability of their leader. Coming off as "angry man" isn't going to deter the "whispers" coming from within his own party. That being said, as a Tory I will take pleasure in watching the NDP infighting over the drive to replace Layton.

Stay calm Tommy boy...

NDP Leadership Race Getting Crowded

The number of people who have joined the NDP leadership race is now up to 8 with the addition of labour activist Peggy Nash. There are many heavy hitters within the party that are now vying for the top job, which also means that they are giving up their critics portfolios. That means no questions in Question Period, not joining panels on political shows while they campaign to replace Jack. Now that the A team is invested in a leadership race, the B and C team is being elevated to the top speaking positions. Having Nycole Turmel struggle to speak English is already a negative, throwing the rookies into the fire is not going to work out well for the NDP.

I will be VERY interested to watch the NDP leadership debates. I really really really want to listen to this cast of characters debate among themselves what should be the priorities of the party. Mulcair wants to move the party farther away from unions, and I can only imagine that Peggy Nash will have something to say about that. Those are the moments you want to record and save for future playback...

The NDP's First Day Without Jack

Many have predicted that the NDP will have great difficulty performing without leader Jack Layton, and their first day back to work since his death only helped solidify this belief. First, the NDP needs to have their leadership convention as soon as possible because Nycole Turmel is a terrible public speaker. She was painful to watch in Question Period. Her English is harder to understand than Stephane Dion so most of her questions are in French, and she has to read all of her questions off of a piece of paper. Bob Rae by comparison is bloody Shakespearean.

Then you had Peggy Nash demanding that the government stop cutting taxes to businesses and instead focus on "the real job creators". I suppose in the wonderful world of "social democracy" the government becomes the most important and "efficient" employer (especially those positions which are unionized). Yes it is looking like the NDP's fall jobs plan is about creating more public sector jobs. CUPE, not small business, is the real job creator in this country. Either we could hire more unionized public employees, or we could just funnel money directly into CUPE. I doubt the NDP would complain.

Also today, Mulcair threatened not to run for leader unless the party does something to "rectify" Quebec's lack of card carrying NDP members. Since half the NDP's seats are in Quebec, then the province should be guaranteed 50% of the influence in selecting the next leader; regardless of how many memberships Team Mulcair is able to sell. But since rumours have it that Layton's inner circle does not want Mulcair to be the next leader, don't expect the rules to be changed to increase Tommy's probability of victory.

Day 1 was interesting to say the least.

Mulcair And Topp Split On NDP Leadership Convention Rules

A difference of opinion has emerged between the two top NDP leadership contestants Tom Mulcair and Brian Topp regarding the rules to elect Jack Layton's replacement. Currently NDP policy is to guarantee a minimum % of votes for organized labour (which Topp supports), where Mulcair wants all NDP members being treated as equals. While I'm inclined to agree with Tom on this one, this is unlikely a clash of pure ideologies and rather both men trying to maximize their probability of winning the race. I would be willing to wager that Topp is more popular than Mulcair with big labour and that is his motivation for "defending tradition" against a more populist position.

In almost every kind of contest participants will favour the rules that make them most likely to win. It is difficult to say with certainty how the rule change would affect the victory odds of either candidates without digging into internal NDP polling numbers (which are not public). Mulcair might have the more palatable position, but don't believe for a second that he wouldn't be doing the exact opposite if he were more popular with the union establishment.

Who Is The Best Replacement For Jack Layton?

Today's poll question; who do you think would be the most effective replacement for Jack Layton as NDP leader? I've already asked who you think the leader will be, but I'm curious to know who would be the best. Personally I think there is little doubt that Gary Doer would be their best possible replacement, I just don't see the hard left of the party accepting Doer as leader (assuming Doer even wants the job). Thomas Mulcair would be the most destructive leader, and for that reason Tories should probably be endorsing his candidacy. As an aside, might I say what a wonderful and noble man Tom Mulcair is.  Libby Davies may or may not run, but she has a zero percent chance of ever being elected Prime Minister, and for that reason I believe she has a zero percent chance of being selected leader. Layton's inner circle seem to be pumping Brian Topp, but he's a failed coup away from his next nervous breakdown (although I'd take him over Mulcair in a heartbeat). There has been speculation about Paul Dewar as a potential candidate, but he strikes me as an overly sensitive self-righteous blowhard. It is not known if Peggy Nash will run, but she will likely get the endorsement of the unions.

Bob Rae will not be included in this webpoll. He was alright as a possible replacement, but I can't in good conscious include him as an option for most effective replacement. I'm sorry.

As I asked when Jack Layton stepped down.

IF JACK LAYTON IS UNABLE TO RETURN AS LEADER OF THE NDP, WHO DO YOU EXPECT THE NEXT PERMANENT LEADER TO BE?


Tom Mulcair (29%)
Bob Rae (25%)
None of the above (18%)
Libby Davies (9%)
Peggy Nash (4%)
Pat Martin (4%)
Charlie Angus (2%)
Nycole Turmel (2%)
Linda Duncan (1%)

The Future Of The NDP

It has been a sombre summer day across Canada with the passing of NDP leader Jack Layton this morning. He carried the fortunes of his Party on his shoulders, taking the NDP to new electoral heights that few had even dreamed possible. Journalists have been choking back tears all day while reporting on this story and reading Jack's last letter to Canadians. He was well liked even by those who disagreed with his policies because he was always that one politician that everyone wanted to have a beer with.

When the mourning period has passed the NDP has some difficult decisions to make, trying to replace the irreplaceable. Today's poll question; do you think the NDP can sustain its current support in the next election without Jack Layton? There is little to no precedence for this in Canadian history, with Layton being among the first major party leaders to pass away while serving in office. It is very difficult to forecast what's going to happen next. Much will depend on who the party selects as permanent leader. In the near term I expect the NDP to rise in polls out of respect and sympathy for the loss they have sustained.

Goodbye Jack, you will be missed.

In July when Jack stepped down as leader I asked:

IF JACK LAYTON IS UNABLE TO RETURN AS LEADER OF THE NDP, WHO DO YOU EXPECT THE NEXT PERMANENT LEADER TO BE?

Tom Mulcair (29%)
Bob Rae (25%)
None of the above (18%)
Libby Davies (9%)
Peggy Nash (4%)
Pat Martin (4%)
Charlie Angus (2%)
Nycole Turmel (2%)
Linda Duncan (1%)

Layton Steps Down, Mulcair Snubbed

Like every Canadian I would like to wish Jack Layton all the best in his latest battle with cancer and hope that he has a speedy and full recovery. He is stepping down as leader of the NDP, hoping to return to the position when his health has improved. Who will be replacing him as interim leader? Well it is not deputy leader Tommy Mulcair, which is great news for Canada. The new NDP leader is likely to be someone I've never heard of before Nycole Turmel, a rookie MP from Quebec. In the event that Jack is unable to return, the NDP is going to have serious problems when Parliament resumes if they are being led by someone who only has a few weeks experience in the legislature. That being said, they would also have serious problems under the leadership of a vitriolic conspiracy theorist like Mulcair, who will likely be seeking leadership should Jack's leave become permanent.

I would much rather have Jack Layton as NDP leader than any of the usual suspects like Libby Davies, Pat Martin, or Mulcair. Considering that the NDP is currently built on Layton's personal likability (especially in Quebec), anyone who might replace him will be unable to duplicate or expand the results from the last election. The loss of Jack's leadership would weaken his party, and perhaps make them more receptive to a merger with the Liberals.

Get well soon Jack.

NDP Shadow Cabinet

Jack Layton is expected to announce his shadow cabinet this week, after an enthusiastic speech Monday in front of his new caucus. Libby Davies is on Power Play talking about how excited everyone is to find out who will be sitting in their pretend cabinet. Personally I don't really care since most of their loudest voices (Pat Martin, Paul Dewar, and Tom Mulcair) always have me scrambling for the mute button. The only appointment that I would like to see this week is Ruth Brosseau as the new tourism critic. Other than that, I look forward to learning more about the people who are appointed as I expect plenty of fodder for the political bloggers.

Perhaps someone can tell me what changes with the critics role when a party moves up from 4th place to the official opposition? Yes, they get to speak more on the floor of parliament and might get a few extra interviews, but do they get higher wages or increased office/travel budgets? Will Pat Martin be afforded the ability to travel around the country more than he did previously?

Liberal-NDP Not Always Friendly

While we cannot disqualify the possibility of a left wing coalition forming in the event this election produces another Tory minority, the relationship between the Liberals and NDP is not always sunshine and lollipops. The Dippers exposed the Liberal white supremacist candidate in rural Quebec on Wednesday, just as Iggy happened to be in rural Quebec. This story derailed his day and a lot of his momentum. There are 10-20 ridings where the Lib-Dips are closely competing head to head, such as Outremont. I'm cheering for the Liberal candidate Martin Cauchon over Mulcair. Iggy almost split his Quebec caucus in two by appointing a hand picked candidate in the riding instead of the former Liberal Minister.

Mulcair is vile. I've had enough of him. I don't often cheer for Liberals, but in this case, I'll make an exception. By contrast, I'd like to see Peggy Nash take out Gerard Kennedy.

Bloc Endorsing Thomas Mulcair?

When Chantal Hebert wrote last week that the Bloc and NDP are now "objective allies" in Thomas Mulcair's riding of Outremont and that the Bloc wants Mulcair to win the seat in the next election; what exactly does that entail? So the party dedicated to breaking Canada apart are cheering for Layton's deputy? Are they pulling their candidate in Outremont, or just fielding a weak candidate with little campaign support? Chantal discusses how both the NDP and Bloc want to beat the Liberals in that riding, but is decidedly quiet on details.

In the next election, Mulcair will face a more threatening Liberal foe in the shape of former justice minister Martin Cauchon. But it seems he will once again not have to worry about a strong Bloc challenge.

In the battle to keep Cauchon out of the House of Commons, the Bloc and the NDP are objective allies and the same is also true in the neighbouring riding of Papineau – where Justin Trudeau is seeking re-election.

If the separatists want Muclair to win, what does that say about Tommy boy? They must think he's doing a great job of dividing Canada and breaking up the country. That looks bad on you Tom, even if you are angling to replace your ailing leader.

Outremont

I have a request for the people of Outremont. Please vote for someone other than Tom Mulcair in the next election. I would even encourage those voters to vote Liberal, because whoever Iggy has hand picked would be better than Tommy Boy. I have to say that Tom might be the most irritating politician in the Canadian legislature to my ears. Anybody but Mulcair. Applauding a Liberal victory is not generally in my nature, but in this case I can make an exception. The Tories have no chance in Outremont, so I have to ask its voters to vote Liberal in the March election.

I know that Mulcair would take this post as an "orange badge of courage", I just can't listen to him anymore. Quoting him directly could give me great material as a Tory blogger, but I'll take that loss of inspiration to spare myself from the nausea of his political speech.