Will There Be A Fall Election?

Today's poll question, do you expect a federal election in 2010? When I asked you this question in April, nearly 70% of you said no. According to Susan Delacourt Liberal MPs are preparing for a fall election, and speculation from NDP strategists is that the Tories are preparing to take down their own government. What do you think? I have assembled some pros and cons for each side, and your feedback is encouraged. Why should the Conservatives want or not want an election? Why should the Liberals? The problem for whoever may want election is that if the government is collapsed so soon after the last election, the party responsible will pay a price at the polls. Election fatigue has set in among Canadians, which is why we need a majority.  Only one party is anywhere close enough to deliver a majority.

Conservatives should want an election because:

*Liberal Party will have spent a big chunk of their savings on the summer tour, and they may want to trigger an election before Iggy can refill the bank accounts.

*There is a strong likelihood that there will be another economic downturn, though not as severe as the last. If the TSX tanks again, Tories will be very vulnerable to the opposition.

Conservatives should NOT want an election because:

*Polling suggests they are unlikely to win a majority if an election were held right now.

Liberals should want an election because:

*Flow their summer tour directly into an election campaign to maintain momentum.

*After an election, they can do a leadership review.

*If a coalition treaty has been reached, they will want to trigger it sooner rather than later.

Liberals should NOT want an election because:

*Need to refill bank accounts after summer tour before election campaign.

*Polling suggests they don't have strong enough support to form government. Why spend what little money you have on a national election campaign if there is a low probability of winning?  They need to hope that the LPC and NDP can win 155 seats combined, at which point they can vote against the throne speech and ask the new GG if they can form government.  They have to realize that a coalition with the Bloc will not be palatable with Canadians.

CORRECTION: I received an E-Mail from Susan Delacourt clarifying, she did not say that they were told prepare.  She was not told that the leader's office instructed MPs to prepare for an election.  Her words were that an election was likely and: "the Liberals that I've talked to on the road, the candidates and MPs, certainly are planning for that."

Susan wrote in an e-mail to me:

"Though I believe I said a lot of Liberal MPs are talking about whether there will be an election; mentioning nothing about any orders. But if I'd been asked what Ignatieff's office was telling them, it would not be as you've cast it. Frankly, I just think they're gossiping, and significantly, they all believe if there's an election, it will be because Harper provokes it, as he did in 2008."

July Polling

Here are the results of my polling for the month of July. Normally the summer months see political news at a minimum, but the media has been trying really hard to sell Censusgate. 93% of you find census questions to be too intrusive. 51% of you think Mel Gibson is insane. 23% of you would accept Prince Charles as your head of state. 44% of you think Omar Kadhr should be transfered into house arrest at Bob Rae's house. Stephen Harper's approval rating for 2010 is at 95% with my audience.

WHICH AGENDA SETTER IS THE MOST BIASED?

Jane Taber (50%)
Kady O'Malley (33%)
Undecided (17%)

SHOULD THE BOSS OF THE RCMP BE REPLACED?

No (56%)
Undecided (23%)
Yes (21%)

DO YOU FIND CENSUS QUESTIONS TO BE TOO INTRUSIVE?

Yes (93%)
No (6%)
Undecided (1%)

WOULD RAPPER WYCLEF JEAN MAKE A GOOD PRESIDENT FOR HAITI?

No (77%)
Undecided (13%)
Yes (10%)

WOULD YOU LISTEN TO A JANN ARDEN RADIO SHOW?

No (58%)
Who is Jann Arden? (29%)
Yes (13%)

SHOULD SKIN COLOUR BE A DECIDING FACTOR IN HIRING FOR GOVERNMENT JOBS?

No (99%)
Yes (1%)

IF HELENA GUERGIS IS CLEARED BY THE ETHICS COMMISSIONER NEXT, SHOULD SHE BE INVITED BACK INTO CAUCUS?

No (58%)
Yes (32%)
Undecided (10%)

WILL CENSUSGATE COST TORIES VOTES?

No (93%)
Yes (7%)

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF MEL GIBSON?

Insane (51%)
Undecided (29%)
Misunderstood (16%)
Great Guy (4%)

WOULD YOU ACCEPT PRINCE CHARLES AS YOUR KING?

No (64%)
Yes (23%)
Undecided (13%)

HAVE YOU BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO THE TOUR DE FRANCE?

No (93%)
Yes (7%)

DO YOU BELIEVE IN KARMA?

Yes (51%)
No (43%)
Undecided (6%)

DO YOU THINK THE CANADIAN AIR FORCE NEEDS NEW FIGHTER JETS?

Yes (96%)
No (3%)
Undecided (1%)

SHOULD JIM FLAHERTY BE REPLACED AS FINANCE MINISTER?

No (86%)
Yes (9%)
Undecided (5%)

SHOULD THE LONG CENSUS FORM BE MANDATORY?

No (78%)
Yes (15%)
Undecided (7%)

WHAT IS THE DUMBEST THING IGNATIEFF HAS SAID SINCE JOINING THE LIBERAL PARTY? *note that the option which won the poll was actually a Hugo Chavez quote in disguise*

"Socialism builds and capitalism destroys." (25%)
"You can smell the whiff of sulphur on the guy" (21%)
"If you mess with me, I will mess with you until I'm done" (19%)
"Mr. Harper, your time is up" 38 (18%)
"A coalition if necessary but not necessarily a coalition" (6%)
"It tastes meaty" (3%)
"If elected Prime Minister, I will live in a hotel" (2%)

WHERE IS THE BEST PLACE FOR OMAR KHADR?

House Arrest at Bob Rae's Place (44%)
Guantanamo Bay (34%)
American Prison (14%)
Alcatraz (3%)
Canadian Prison (2%)
Free in Canada (1%)

WOULD YOU PAY $55 A HEAD TO EAT IGNATIEFF'S ROTTEN EGGS?

No (98%)
Yes (1%)
Undecided (1%)

WHAT PROFESSION WOULD IGNATIEFF BEST BE SUITED FOR WHEN HIS POLITICAL CAREER IS FINISHED?

Dracula Impersonator (22%)
Academic (20%)
Bob Rae's Butler (19%)
Crash Test Dummy (16%)
Russian Spy (7%)
Rodeo Clown (7%)
Community Organizer (4%)
Kid's Birthday Clown (2%)

DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE CANADIAN RCMP WOULD SET FIRE TO THEIR OWN POLICE CARS TO DELEGITIMIZE THE G20 PROTESTS?

No (92%)
Yes (7%)
Undecided (1%)

HAVE YOU EVER ATTENDED A RODEO?

Yes; enjoyed it (58%)
No; but I'd like to (21%)
Indifferent (9%)
No; and never will (6%)
Yes; disliked it (4%)

IS DAVID JOHNSTON A GOOD CHOICE FOR GOVERNOR GENERAL OF CANADA?

Yes (80%)
Undecided (14%)
No (6%)

WHAT WOULD BE THE BEST NAME FOR BOB RAE, THE MOVIE?

Rae Daze (33%)
Red Ink Revolution (11%)
The Worst Case Ontario (11%)
Pandora's Toilet (10%)
The Raemageddon Factor (9%)
Raezed And Confused (9%)
Harris Rising (6%)
Rae of Plight (2%)
Leave It To Bobby (2%)
Straenge Brew (2%)

WHICH PREMIER HAS DONE THE MOST DAMAGE TO ONTARIO OVER THE COURSE OF HIS POLITICAL CAREER?

Dalton McGuinty (52%)
Bob Rae (42%)
Undecided (6%)

HOW WOULD YOU RATE PRIME MINISTER STEPHEN HARPER'S PERFORMANCE IN 2010?

Approve (95%)
Disapprove (3%)
Undecided (2%)

DO YOU EXPECT ELIZABETH MAY TO EVER WIN A SEAT IN THE CANADIAN HOUSE OF COMMONS?

No (97%)
Yes (2%)
Undecided (1%)

WOULD YOU SUPPORT YOUR PROVINCE PAYING $750,000 TO BRING IN THE REGIS AND KELLY SHOW TO YOUR TOWN FOR A WEEK?

No (88%)
Yes (8%)
Undecided (4%)

SHOULD DON CHERRY BE AWARDED THE ORDER OF CANADA?

Yes (71%)
No (25%)
undecided (4%)

Unreported Crimes

The media who swarmed Stockwell Day today criticizing him for being alarmed about the rates of unreported crimes perhaps maybe should have done a little bit of research before venting their outrage. CBC Comedian Rick Mercer tweeted rickmercer: Stock Day makes my head hurt. The reports of unreported crime alarms him? Skit over. Somehow I don't think that Mr. Mercer realized when he tweeted that according to Statistics Canada, 90% of all sexual assaults in Canada go unreported. The fact that Stockwell Day is alarmed about that gives Rick Mercer a headache.

Stay classy Ricky!

Fall Election Speculation

A former NDP war room boss is speculating today at the Globe and Mail that the wheels are already in motion for a fall election. His hypothesis is that the Tories are "enjoying" their latest poll results of 31% and are eager to take that to the electorate. This NDP strategist thinks that Mr. Harper is at risk of losing to Ignatieff; therefore Mr. Harper should want to go to the polls to take advantage of his own alleged weakness. Then he says that there might be a "double-dip recession, which Conservative fiscal policy would make worse"; curious choice of words considering that Conservative fiscal policy made our performance through the "first dip" one of the best in the industrialized world. His opinion published at the Globe and Mail where Jane Taber sets the agenda, states that Censusgate proves that the Prime Minister and his strategists are ideologues who are trying "to pursue a less incremental revolution in this progressive country they despise so much."

Yes, this op-ed at the Globe claims that the Prime Minister despises Canada. This is what qualifies as quality opinion at the Globe and Mail, the same glorious news organization who brought us "kill Stephen Harper, kill him dead" care of Scott Reid. If there is going to be an election, it is more likely to be triggered by the opposition. The Tories aren't polling high enough to possibly be intending to bring themselves down before this government's second birthday. The leader of the Liberal party has instructed his MPs to prepare for a fall election, according to Susan Delacourt. If this minority government is under the threat of collapse, it is coming from the opposition, not the government.

It should also be noted that the author of this op-ed at the Globe is also the author of a book "How we almost gave the Tories the boot" and the author claims to have suffered from post traumatic stress disorder after his NDP coalition coup failed in Dec 2008. On the flip side, I likely would have experienced some sort of psychological trauma had the coup been successful, so it all comes out in the wash.

Media Confusing Stockwell Day For Tony Clement

It would appear that somebody forgot to tell our national press gallery that Stockwell Day is not the minister in charge of the census, as a group of reporters ambushed him with census questions when he was attempting to discuss Canada's stellar economic performance. The fact that he was harangued with questions about another minister's portfolio is headline news to Jane Taber, setting the agenda at the Globe and Mail. In her editorial, Jane never mentions that the census is not Day's portfolio; she merely delights in journalists refusing to ask questions about Stock's actual responsibilities.

Is this going to be the new professional standard for our journalists? If Peter MacKay announces a press conference to discuss our military, will the journalists bombard him with census questions?

When Global Warming Attacks

After several years on hiatus while the world cooled, global warming is suddenly back with a vengeance. The world's temperature is cyclical and we are experiencing a warm summer. Ergo all the "experts" who ditched global warming for "climate change" when the world was cooling are now jumping back on the bandwagon. But don't worry, they did an investigation that supposedly proves "the researchers at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit did not tamper with data or interfere with the peer review process to exaggerate the threat of global warming". What we need to do is stop consuming energy and redistribute our incomes to Africa, and the planet will be saved. It is no coincidence that socialism is being heralded as the cure to the destruction of our planet.

Liberal MP Cut Shaving

Breaking news from the Liberal Express, Liberal MP Brian Murphy cut himself shaving. This is making headlines at the Liberal website because the fearless leader made the comment that "Murphy scraps so hard for you he's bleeding, and he bleeds Liberal red!" Evidently this is among the most interesting and relevant things that is happening on Pandora's Bus today. How about policy announcements? How long is Ignatieff going to keep his agenda hidden? As Mr. Murphy put it "I can only hope for bright sunny political days ahead for Canada under Michael Ignatieff. His humanity and humility marry well with his passion and experience, not to mention his excellent square dancing skills!" Humility? Really? And his "humanity" supports the use of coerced interrogations.

And yes, blood is red. Vampires and leeches feed on "Liberal red"...

Nunavut Has A Problem

The territory of Nunavut has a serious problem with crime. To the editorial board at the Globe and Mail, this is evidence that the Conservative Party is not tough on crime (the column does not list an author, but we do know that Jane Taber sets the agenda). The proposed solution to the problem is hiring more judges and prosecutors, which makes sense if there is a shortfall. The question is does Nunavut's small population produce enough people with the knowledge and experience necessary to undertake the responsibility of enforcing Canada's criminal code? If they can't produce enough locals to reduce the strain on their legal system, does that mean that we have to relocate judges and prosecutors from the rest of Canada to the arctic? Are these people going to be willing to accept an assignment to a land where you rarely see the sun in the winter time?

Something needs to be done, so how do we solve the problem? I don't think it is fair to blame the current situation on the Conservatives. This history of violence is not a new phenomenon. The problem has existed for a while now, and is the reason it hasn't been solved yet because the government doesn't care, or because the solution is not as clear as people would think?

I remember the last time Nunavut voted in a territorial election; the CBC Arctic division was broadcasting election results across the country on CBC Newsworld. What blew my mind was how many male candidates running for office had been arrested or convicted of sexual assault, and that some of them were elected. Anywhere else in the country, it would be impossible to win a seat with a rape conviction; but these people were getting a substantial number of votes. That's as alarming as the crime rate, the complacency and acceptance of Nunavut's voting public of the criminal offenses of the candidates for which they are voting.

Which Former Hockey Player Would Make The Best Tory MP?

Now that Georges Laraque is the deputy leader of the Green Party; that begs the question which former hockey player would you most like to see sit as a Conservative in Parliament? Thomas Steen came close to winning a seat in Winnipeg in the last election, and I hope that he decides to run again next time we go to the polls. I can't say with certainty which athletes are aligned with which political ideologies, though I am pretty sure that Wayne Gretzky is right leaning. Don Cherry might be too close to retirement to serve a term in elected office, and his big mouth would be a headache for any Prime Minister. My all-time favourite hockey player is Steve Yzerman, who also assembled our 2010 gold medal team.

The Liberals have Ken Dryden. Who should the Tories have?

Green Deputy To Quash Rebellion?

The new deputy leader of the Green Party of Canada apparently still has not decided if he will even run for Parliament, which you would think would be a prerequisite for taking the #2 spot in a party. Though I suppose when your party has no seats in Parliament, you operate by a different set of rules. According to Elizabeth May, the deputy is not someone who is next in line for leadership and must be groomed accordingly; rather the job is for a campaigner. Forget all those candidates who put in tireless hours trying to get elected and are actually qualified to be leader, #2 should be a buffoon who may or may not run for office.

The question is will the Laraque appointment quell the little insurrection happening in the Green Party this summer? Are all those Greens who doubt May's ability to win a seat in Parliament going to be satisfied with this? Georges actually joined the Greens in February, but was not named deputy until the end of July on a long weekend slow news cycle. This announcement also comes a few weeks after Lizzy's top leadership rival went on the CBC to publicly declare her intention to force a leadership review before the next election. Sylvie Lemieux announces intention to force leadership review on July 19th, and May appoints the hockey goon as deputy on July 31st. This strongly suggests that the Laraque appointment had more to do with internal party posturing than actually doing what's best for the party. It had already been announced that Georges was going to be a Green spokesperson, but deputy???

Elizabeth May is hoping that making Georges the deputy can quash a leadership review from happening before the next election. She loves democratic reform, but only reforms that make it easier for her to get elected and harder to remove from power.