Monday, August 8, 2011

Liberals Overtake The NDP

According to the latest Nanos poll, the Liberals have now overtaken the NDP for 2nd place in popular support as Dipper support in Quebec is collapsing following the bad news about Jack Layton's health. The Liberals now find themselves at 27% support where they had fallen below 15% in the weeks following the election (nearly doubling their support over the last 2 months). True, Ignatieff took the party to a bold new rock bottom, meaning that Bob Rae had nowhere to go but up with recent gains being helped by NDP misfortune. The Nycole Turmel appointment has been a disaster, but reneging on her leadership because of a history with separatist parties will not play out well in Quebec where many new NDP voters have likely previously at one point voted Bloc.

We all wish Jack Layton the best, but we do have to acknowledge that he's irreplaceable as leader. The good news for the Dippers is that we are at least 3 years away from the next election, so all this polling data is just moot anyway. In minority governments polling matters a whole lot more because it can fuel election speculation.  For the next 3 years, it doesn't matter what happens in the news or in the polls, there won't be any federal elections.


  1. If this shift in support from the NDP to the Liberals holds for a while, I have to think it's also very bad news for the Liberals. I suspect there will be those among the Liberal camp who will just look at their last election disaster as just a temporary blip (as they did after Dion), and think they can carry on like business as usual, and may even annoint Bob Rae as permanent leader in the hopes of a comeback in 2015 (which sane people know is not bloody likely in their present condition). They really need to learn a lesson from the last election and use the next 8 years to truly rebuild and define themselves. Otherwise, they will never be back in government.

  2. well that was a short honeymoon.


  3. And what exactly is the point of having Nanos no nothing having a poll 4 years before the next election??No one gives a rats ass...And who ask,s for and pays for these polls???

  4. bertie....I suspect that the Globe paid for the poll in order to give their resident gossip queen, Jane Taber, something to write about. After all now that she is no longer working on Sundays she has to fill her time with something. How about polls that mean nothing. It should be good for three columns by her at least.

  5. This is absolutely scandalous! We should hold an election immediately,and hold the next government to the same standards;low in the polls,off to the polls we go.

    We could bankrupt the Country in a couple of years.

    I suppose there was nothing negative to report about the Conservatives today,so the Globe decided to run one of their unbiased polls from the Al Gore of the polling business,Nik Nanos.