There will be an election in November, just not in Canada. Midterm elections are fast approaching south of the border, and this round will prove to be interesting. Can the Democrats hold on to control of all three executive branches? Will the Republicans be able to take back one or both of the Senate or Congress? That is today's poll question; what do you expect the outcome to be? If a Republican can win Massachusetts, then truly no Democratic seat is safe, except maybe Pelosi in San Fransisco. Can the new Republican wicca win Delaware?
I don't study American electoral math with the same detail as I do Canadian, but if I had to guess the most likely outcome is that the Republicans will take one of the Senate or Congress but not both. It is difficult to see them winning the Senate but not Congress where every seat is up for grab. If I had to assign a probability to each possible outcome, it would be as follows and bear in mind this is just an educated guess:
Republicans win only Congress 35%
Republicans win both 30%
Democrats win both 25%
Republicans win only the Senate 10%
When the power shifts too far to one side, it always swings back, it is all just a matter of when it starts.
Republicans win only Congress 60%
ReplyDeleteRepublicans win both 15%
Democrats win both 25%
Republicans win only the Senate 0%
The Republicans should win the House. It's really their's to lose. They might win the Senate but that's a really long shot. Only 1/3rd of the US Senators stand for an election every 2 years because they serve 6 year terms. To win back the Senate, the Republicans would have to pick up 10 Senate seats. That means beating at least half of the sitting Democrats. That's not likely to happen.