According to the latest Harris-Decima poll, the NDP has fallen to 14% nationally. This is a big deal for the NDP, because at 14% they stand to lose nearly half of their entire caucus. All the gains the Dippers have made in seat count in recent elections can evaporate with a drop of just a couple of points nationally. The Liberals would stand to add roughly 18 seats, but that still leaves the Lib-Dipper combo well short of a majority of seats in the House of Commons. They would still require the blessing of Gilles Duceppe to form government.
The big question is if the NDP is bleeding support, where are those votes going? Allan Greg seems to think some of them are perhaps shifting to the Tories; "It is also interesting to note that this decline is not benefiting the Liberals exclusively. In fact, with the NDP under 15% of the popular vote, it is perhaps telling that the Liberals cannot crack 30%". This poll was conducted between September 9th and 19th, which is before the final vote on the gun registry, but that issue easily dominated the national news during that window. The NDP relies on rural ridings for a large proportion of their caucus, and if their numbers hold at these lows it may be difficult for Iggy to convince Jack to vote no confidence anytime soon.
Jack Layton may have just shot himself in the foot, pun intended...
If Jack and Michael left the MPs to vote as their MPs wanted it would not be a problem.
ReplyDeleteIgnatieff whipped them played the gun loving anti women wedge.
Jack broke faith and used safe seats, recent gains in 2008 to keep registry to protect Muclair and possibly his own and wife seat.
Both leaders have admitted the LGR is not popular and needs changes, but saved it.
Now they are stuck trying to fix it with the Bloc (unlikely) or the CPC (hell no).
76+37 can't fix it. It's too late and both parties will take a hit for their flip flop in specific ridings. (Both are down one MP and a few NDP MPs voted to scrap it)
My best guess is that some of, what I call the "sanctimonious" voter is moving from the Dippers to the Greens. It must come as quite a shock to these voters, to see a guy like Stoffer flip on his long held "opposition" to the gun registry.
ReplyDeleteAnd then to make matters worse, Stoffer insults everyone's intelligence with his ridiculous reasons for changing his stance.
That's got to be a lot for the "holier than thou" voters to stomach. Hard to see they could still buy into the narrative that the Dippers were a principled party.
I agree with Canadian Sense, I can't see the Bloc co-operating in watering down the legislation. I bet Duceppe would like to see Mulcair out of Outremont too. The Dippers came in second in the Hochelaga by-election (east-end of Montreal), while the Libs (with all their MPs on the west-end) rolled over and gave up.
That was a real eye-opener for me. It would be comparable to Edmonton area CPC MPs doing nothing to help Ryan Hastman win back the Edmonton Strathcona riding from the Dippers.
Oh, Linda Duncan is going down next election, not only did she vote for the gun registry, but she also slams the oil sands every opportunity she gets. This does not sit well with Edmontonians who depend on the oil sands for their living.
ReplyDeleteShe might appeal to the university crowd, but then again the university crowd loves the U-pass that FORCES everyone to pay for the few that ride the bus. Socialism at it's best.
Hunter, the election of Linda Duncan was a complete fluke and I don't think even she expects to win that seat again. Otherwise she might support issues that matter to her constituents.
ReplyDeleteIF the dippers want to survive, they need to actively court the "Orange" Liberal vote and split the party that way.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure many "Orange" Liberals really are only interested in power, and the idea that joining the NDP in a united Socialist front rather than suffering under the current LPC leadership (institutional as well as parliamentry) might be rather attractive. Why be socialist lite when you can have the real thing?
Actually, the poll shows a shift among urban women voters away from the NDP. Hardly the gun totin' Harper lovin' crew...seems the NDP lost more among women by not taking a strong stand to support the registry.
ReplyDelete