Monday, September 6, 2010
Which Coalition Partner Has The Advantage?
Today's poll question is which coalition partner has the greatest advantage heading into the fall session of Canadian Parliament? The Liberals, the NDP, and the Bloc stand plausibly poised to form government if the Conservatives win a 3rd minority term after the next election, or the less likely event that the Liberals manage to pull out a slim minority. Terms of agreement have already been negotiated by party elders, but it is unlikely that all three agree on the timing of the next election. The question is which has the most to gain if there is an election in the near future? If Jack thinks he can hold his existing seats or add new seats, he would be likely to risk an election in a confidence vote. I am uncertain what the polling numbers would have to be or how long the Liberals would have to sustain them before Ignatieff begins actively trying to collapse the government. I think the Liberals would need to be leading, and sustain it over a few weeks of polling by more firms than just Liberal donor Frank Graves.
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Advantage is PMSHs,
ReplyDeletethe government sets the agenda (even tho Jane Taber thinks she does).
New immigration legislation, for starters, should get the thumbs up from Canadians, including Quebec.
Duceppe is in the drivers seat. I bet he would love an election that coincides with the most salacious bits of the Bastarche Inquiry.
ReplyDeleteSyncro
Coalition leader Michael Ignatieff is the winner in this because he would become prime minister.
ReplyDeleteDwell on that thought my Conservative friends if you're looking for motivation in this next election.
If Ignatieff focuses on the economy he has a chance. If the Conservatives lose their focus on the economy then Ignatieff could move up the middle with a conservative message. As a famous quote from a U.S. election said, "It's the Economy Stupid".
ReplyDeleteConservatives need to focus on reducing the thousands of pages of regulation and new laws such as the "Euro Cucumber Rule". They need to focus on the inexhorable increases in taxes but be very specific in what they mean. Canadians will not stand for the usual rhetoric. Get Maxime Bernier out in front in Quebec on that issue. In fact get Maxime out front across Canada on that issue. He is a real fiscal conservative. He is the Prime Minister in waiting.
The Bloc won 65% of the seats with 38.1% of the popular vote. The Bloc represent a regional party that is uni-lingual.
ReplyDeleteThe Liberals are reduced to 91% urban seats in their party and don't represent a pan Canadian Party.
The Democrats and Conservatives represent urban and rural ridings that represent a national political party in the most regions and provinces.
The Bloc have the lowest costs structure to fight an election. The political party subsidy has been a great benefit to the Bloc.
In parliament each party has little to benefit from an election that returns a similar result. The Bloc benefit from a minority as they can point to the every party propping up the government.
If a coalition was installed as our government, who is to say they would have iggy as PM.
ReplyDeleteHow would a coalition work, would they all sit on the govt side, with just the conservatives as the opposition. How would QP work, as govt does not ask questions, just attempt to answer them.
I wonder if they have thought that out. And how many long term libs, waiting for another chance at the trough would be left out, in order to put in ndpers and bloc MPs in cabinet.
Think of the front bench, iggy, layton and giles, with their phony smiles. How long before giles would demand French as the language used across Canada as his pymt for support.