I will be most curious to see how NDP polling numbers evolve now that a number of pundits have been proclaiming Iggy's summer tour as a success that will have a lasting impact. Will the Liberals eat away at NDP support, or does Lucky Jack remain a bigger threat to Iggy than visa versa? If you see a poll with the Greens over 12%, I would not take it seriously. They have been losing membership amid internal turmoil, and Liberal donor Frank Graves remains the only pollster who seriously believes the Greens could win a seat right now.
But if Iggy is indeed going to see a Summer Tour bump in his polling numbers, how steady will Jack's numbers hold? He has a really good excuse for not doing a summer tour, as he has been fighting prostate cancer. One has to wonder if Jack's feel good story will eat away at the Liberal's compassionate left flank?
Alberta must be insulated from the positive side of the summer bus tour, because no one here is talking about "Ignatieff's Recovery Summer Bus Tour". He must have been a rock star in eastern Canada - not so much in the west. Cheers.
ReplyDeleteI think that you are missing something important here. If you look at New Dem polling numbers, they have remained fairly constant for months and months. However when Harper goes up - Iggy goes down. And now that Iggy has gone up = Harper has gone down. It is a myth amongst Conservatives to think that the Iggy has the potential to 'take' support from the New Dems. Even HERE, Iggy is appealing to old Progressive Conservative voters to come to the Libs. As a New Dem, I see Iggy being a fairly Right wing Lib ... someone who has no credibility with the NDP. The only one potentially who can be hurt by any upswing to Iggy is Harper.
ReplyDeleteAround April of 2009, the Libs polled as high as 37 %. Nik Nanos attributed that to: the voters in the anti-Harper universe gradually converging behind Iggy.
ReplyDeleteIggy was then still largely an unknown quantity, leadership-wise and policy-wise. And so voters could see what they wanted to see in the guy. This is not unusual, when a Party puts in place a new leader.
Anyway, my take is that Donolo is now trying to recreate that dynamic, of voters "flocking "behind Iggy. Thus we hear Iggy talk about his big red tent. And he avoids anything specific policy-wise.
The question is, will this strategy work ? It really all depends on the polls. Because then the media can play along, reinforcing Iggy's message. We will then see another tag-team effort by all elements of the "big red machine", as they try to keep the "momentum" going, and spin some kind of bandwagon effect.
Let's face it. This game plan is about all the Libs have got, given their empty suit of a leader. Donolo is no dummy. And he's still got lots of friendly media, and possibly helpful pollsters, to go along with his strategy.