Monday, May 10, 2010

Was Springing Coalition Trap a Mistake?

In December of 2008 when Parliament was assembled after the October election, Prime Minister Harper decided to pull tax payer subsidies to political parties. Within very short order from that announcement, the NDP, the Bloc, and the Liberals announced their intention to vote no confidence and attempt to form government at the nearest opportunity. This is often cited by certain journalists as the biggest mistake of the PM's political career, an example of crass partisanship that backfired.

But as we look back at the constitutional crisis that was just narrowly averted 17 months ago, was it really such a terrible mistake? We know that prior to the political subsidy announcement; the NDP and the Bloc had already negotiated a deal on a coalition that required only Liberal approval to proceed. The NDP were bragging about their deal with the Bloc in their public conference calls. The PM then takes the one thing off the table that the bankrupt Liberal Party could not afford to live without, and suddenly the Coalition was born. Immediately support for the opposition collapsed, it happening so soon after an election with a leader as unpopular as Dion expected to take ownership over the Prime Minister's Office.

The way the whole episode unfolded, the very idea of a left wing coalition is now so unpalatable with mainstream Canada that the Liberals are afraid to even speak about the possibility publicly. When you study the electoral map, it will be virtually impossible for the Liberal Party to form a stable government anytime in the immediate future without a coalition. Yet the very idea of a coalition has become toxic. The decision to pull party subsidies sprung the trap, and may have poisoned the only realistic means of the opposition forming government for years to come.

So the big question, was the decision to pull party in funding Stephen Harper's great mistake, or was it a brilliant tactical move?

9 comments:

  1. well it was a good move in the longrun if it makes it harder for the left to enter into a coalition if the cpc is unable to win a majority

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  2. There were two things that stuck in the average Canadian's craw:

    1. the idea that the Bloc would be in a position to dictate policy and law; and,

    2. the coming together of the coalition so soon after the election during which the possibility of a coalition had been explicitly ruled out by at least one party during the debates.

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  3. In my opinion, it was brilliant and it was Jack Layton that was short sighted. He could have decimated the Liberals, financially as well he could have cut the head off the snake that is the Bloc. Quebec, would have become a stronghold for the NDP in my estimation had that happened.

    Besides, the Libs supported the throne speech which clearly outlined the need to make very hard decisions. The fact that this was one of the ENTITLEMENTS to be hammered was a Liberal mistake,showing their greed and typical tax sucking mentality.

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  4. Of course it was a brilliant tactical move....he knew what they were planning and he moved his chess players to corner them.

    Of course the media will never admit that.

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  5. Of course it was a great move on the PM’s part, but lets not forget to give credit to the full frontal, bone headed idiots who invited a Conservative Member of Parliament to their Super Duper top secret conference call where they regaled their members with rumors of power and glory. Duh!!

    YES !! Canada Thanks You!

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  6. The CPC shot up to 46% in Poll Dec 2008. They than built support for a massive spending budget compliments of the 3 stooges. The 2/3 of the "controversial items" were passed in 2009. In 2010-2011 the third item will be a campaign issue for the coalition to defend on the trail. Why are they entitled to their entitlements? They have complained about every change in funding changes to every NGO. They cry women haters, homophobia against the CPC but ignore the kudos from the aid agencies, G8 and other smaller centres getting the new funding.
    Priorities. (They just don't get it)They don't have the $$$ to wage a culture war and buy television spots necessary to make the frame stick.
    A six week national campaign may cost $ 15-20 million. What party is prepared to not blink and visit the G.G. if the opposition force the Taliban Prisoner comfort policy?

    Why did W.K. publicize his letter/departure from the Federal War room prior to the document issue being settled?

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  7. A masterful play of course. I've thought this myself as you have and your commentators.

    I thought it was a mistake at first. Why would a clearly intelligent man such as Harper make such a daring attack? Then I understood it. A minority government is strongest immediately after the election and expected to steadily decline in popularity thereafter. With the information that the coalition existed and was waiting for the right moment to pounce, the choice was clear. Attack. Attack now.

    It paid off big.

    Harper's enemies will never understand this man's strategic genius, and if they do they will never admit it.

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  8. In addition, with Dion having been so soundly rejected during the election the mere thought of someone so inept grabbing the reins of government infuriated a great many people. Harper was brilliant in his timing. He knew exactly which button to push to force the hand of the would-be coalition and take the decision away from them.

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  9. When,oh when will the opposition ever learn that they are perhaps 5 moves behind PM Harper.Their intelligence being from the past,PM Harper's looking to the future.And the Parliamentary Press gallery and CBC-CTV broadcasters know this also.They are giving us yesterdays news,when we want today's and tomorrows news.PM Harper has proven for 4 years now that he does what is right and admits to and corrects his mistakes when he makes them.He does not cozy up to any special interest group's and treat's everyone as equals.He is respected on the world stage as someone to look up to and seek advice from and only in Canada do we have MSM and opposition parties trying to destroy his reputation,by name calling and smear campaign's.Not one single positive has come from the opposition in 4 years,no helpful ideas during the recession.They left it all up to the Conservatives to guide us through these hard times and the Conservatives came through for us again.Just remember Ignatief's famous quote ..HARPER WILL WEAR THIS RECESSION..That ladies and gentlemen is the most help the Conservatives got from the opposition.Well he is wearing this recession very well,thank you and we will remember come election time.

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