The Trudeau Coronation Begins

Tonight Justin Trudeau will officially launch his bid to become the next Liberal leader, in what many expect to be a coronation rather than a leadership race. Justin is a far greater threat to the NDP than he is to the Conservatives, as you can guarantee he'll be fighting hard for votes in Quebec, where the Dippers had their major breakthrough in the last election. Tom Mulcair should be far more worried than Stephen Harper. Perhaps the biggest question is who would give the Liberals the best chance of winning the next election, Trudeau or Rae? Personally if I had to decide between Trudeau or Mulcair, I'd have to go with Mulcair. Justin is a little bit nuts. He'll speak about himself in the 3rd person and has an exaggerated belief in his own greatness, which is his birth right dammit! He's no piece of *bleep*.

Trudeau makes Mulcair look reasonable and pragmatic. And yet, is there anyone to oppose the young future King? Rae has dropped out of the race, or forced out, however you want to look at it. As a Tory, the Liberal who worries me the most is Dominic LeBlanc. There is no doubt in my mind that Stephen Harper would eat Justin Trudeau alive in the debates. Justin has an unusually high probability of saying something outrageous and idiotic in hindsight.

Parliament Returns, Does Anyone Care?

Canadian Parliament has resumed for another session, 17 months into the Conservatives majority mandate. The Tories have a comfortable lead in the polls, as all that fuss last spring over the sinister "omnibus budget" appears to have fallen on deaf ears. Is the average Canadian even paying attention right now? We suffered through more than 6 years of minority governments where every faux controversy was sensationalized and the next election was always right around the corner. Most of us have been enjoying the comparable peace and tranquility of majority rule. Even some political bloggers have struggled to stay interested. Who knows, with the NHL currently locked out, maybe there will be a few extra Canadians tuned in to Parliament Hill this fall?

The NDP seems to have lost some support to the Liberals over the summer, ironic considering Mulcair has been trying to move the party closer to the political center where the greatest plurality of voters are found. Perhaps the Liberals received a bounce from Bob Rae announcing he won't run for permanent leadership? With the Liberal Party continuing to struggle for relevance in a crowded political left, it's fun to see Gloria Galloway at the Globe vigorously defending the party seriously lacking tangible policy (difficult to do without a permanent leader). The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Liberals have been accused of lacking substance and they're not going to take it anymore dammit! Rumour has it that Liberal strategists will try to capitalize on Mitt Romney's "victims" gaffe by comparing Stephen Harper to Romney. Good luck with that...

CRTC Fines Liberal Party For Illegal Robocalls

It is nice to see that the Liberal party has been fined for making illegal and misleading robocalls during the last election in the riding of Guelph, breaking election rules. Interesting though that the penalty is coming from the broadcast regulator, and not the electoral regulator (which did not consider the matter worth investigating). Elections Canada is far too pre-occupied with the hunt for Pierre Poutine to actually reprimand the third place party for breaking the rules. The CRTC seems to take the enforcement of rules and regulations more seriously. But hey, what's wrong with paid partisan phone calls pretending to be from a regular citizen and not from a political party? Some might call that fraud, others might call it an accidental misunderstanding.

Don't forget, Valeriote had the biggest vote gain of any Liberal in Canada over 2008. He jumped from 32% to 43% while his party was decimated, his leader defeated. Whatever Frank did, you can't argue that he got strong results. With Liberals collapsing all around him in apocalyptic fashion, Frank gained ground. Good job Frank.

Here Comes The PQ!

The slow painful death of Jean Charest's political career in Quebec appears to have finally reached its end, while the separatist Parti Quebecois is poised to recapture the reigns of power lost in 2003. This is by no means a sign that another referendum will be coming anytime soon, but rather an indicator of the weakness of alternative choices. Charest did prove to be a survivor winning 3 elections, a difficult feat for any Premier in any province. But that elusive 4th victory is proving to be out reach. The surprise is not that the PQ is ahead, but that Pauline Marios, not Gilles Duceppe, is leading the way. I really thought Gilles would be the one leading the mothership back to glory, but evidently his larger than life federal persona did not translate into popularity in sovereignty's circles.

Is this the end of Charest's political career? Well there is a power vacuum at the top of the federal Liberal Party. If he has interest in taking a shot at the Prime Minister's job in 2015, his best chance at leadership of a major party would be Liberal. Granted, I still don't believe Bob Rae is giving up his best chance to lead a major federal party into an election, despite what he has announced. I'll believe it when we get to the next election and Rae is not running for the top job. That being said, in the event that Rae does not run, there's a strong chance that the Liberals will choose a leader from Quebec to try and take power and seats away from the NDP (good luck with that).

Romney And Ryan: The Economic Dream Team

Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney has announced his running mate for the November election, Congressman Paul Ryan, head of the House Budget Committee. Many pundits are calling this a "risky" selection, as the Ryan agenda to slash government spending has earned him the ire of many Democrats. Despite how Democrats and media people feel about the new VP candidate, he is the perfect selection. Romney has no choice but to fight the election on the economy and government spending. His own greatest strength is his business acumen, so it makes perfect sense to double down on the budgetary portfolio, a file that nobody knows better than Paul Ryan.

Frankly, I would argue that there is no such thing as a "safe pick". Romney is going to face a trial by fire during this election campaign, regardless of his VP selection. There was a significant risk to every possible candidate, so best to select the optimal choice to fight economic battle that Romney has to fight. Joe Biden is going to struggle mightily when he has to face Ryan in the VP debates. Romney was already facing an uphill battle with Obama ahead in the polls. Of the last 4 times an incumbent President has run for a second term, 3 of them have won re-election. Under Obama's watch, Bin Laden was killed and Gitmo is still operating. If you try to fight Obama on national security, he can counter with having issued the order to kill America's #1 enemy. The economy and the budget have to be center stage, and if it is, Romney/Ryan have a better chance of winning.

Judge Overturns Etobicoke Election Result

The results of the 2011 federal election has been overturned in the riding of Etobicoke Centre by an Ontario judge because Elections Canada workers at one specific polling location had inadequate knowledge of Canadian electoral law. The people trained by EC made up their own rules, and now the Conservative who won is paying the price. Less than 100 people were allowed to vote at the wrong location, but because the riding was won by less than 100 votes, the result has been thrown out. It should be noted that we have no idea how these people voted. They could very well have all voted for the defeated Liberal candidate, but tens of thousands of votes have now been thrown in the trash because EC workers f**ked up. This is a black eye for Elections Canada, and if we're going to start challenging the competency of their workers nationally, this is only the tip of the iceberg. This ruling should be appealed to the Supreme Court before we go and throw out thousands of legal votes because EC botched 79 registrations.

Fraud was not a factor in the judge's decision; "we need to be assured that those who vote are qualified to do so. We need to be confident that those who receive a ballot have been identified as persons who are on the official list of electors or who have registered". So if election workers in several ridings also circumvented the vouching/registration rules, do those results also need to be discarded before Canadians lose faith in their democracy? As the judge said "if we give up these foundations of our electoral system, we are risking a loss of confidence in our elections and in our government". Personally, I haven't lost faith in the government, I've lost faith in Elections Canada and their ability to teach electoral law to their army of temporary workers.

Overturning Election Results

One year after Canadians elected a Conservative majority government,there is one court challenge trying to overturn the results in one riding, Etobicoke Center, which was won by the Tories. The basis for this legal challenge is not allegations of Tory robocalling or fraud, but rather the incompetence of Elections Canada workers who did not properly understand our country's electoral law. The law says that you must vote at a designated poll location on election day, but there is a common misconception that you can show up to vote anywhere of convenience. This can lead to naive (though often well intentioned) election workers attempting to circumvent the law allowing them to vote in the wrong location. Typically this would be done either by an improper registration/revision or illegal vouching.

In Etobicoke the registration forms are either missing or never existed. Allegedly people were also being told at that location that they could vote in the box with the shortest line, and if people were doing so than many were voting in boxes where their name was not on the list; which would require corroborating incompetence by the DROs,  poll clerks and poll supervisors in addition to the information/registration officers. Now a Conservative MPs victory is being challenged in court because election workers did not do their jobs properly. The Tory has the most to lose, but make no mistake, it is Elections Canada on trial.

Has a judge ever overturned a federal election result? I'm not sure that you could just void all the results from that specific poll location, throwing away thousands of legal votes because of a few dozen improper registrations/vouchings. Can a judge force a byelection in a riding because workers at a given location screwed up? If that's the case, there's probably 100 other MPs who should be concerned for their jobs. In a perfect world, election workers would know election rules and perform their duties accordingly. Unfortunately when dealing with a large temporary workforce assembled and trained in a short period of time, you are going to get mistakes, in some place more than others. Is this sufficient to force a byelection?

Tory Majority; One Year Later

As we reach the one year anniversary of the Canadian Conservative party winning majority control of parliament, how would you rate this first year of Tory majority government? Do you approve, disapprove, or are you neutral? Much has been accomplished, and there is still 3 years remaining with lots of time on the agenda. Some would argue that democracy is being slowly ripped away from us, others would say the government is doing a far better job than the alternative ever could. Kind of depends who you talk to.

Bob Rae Is Running For Liberal Leader?

All of the people who were expecting Bob Rae to keep his word and not run for permanent Liberal leadership after accepting the interim position must have been shocked to learn today that Bobby intends to run for the job (though that's what many of us believed all along). Since being the party leader would give him an unfair advantage in a leadership contest, he is "expected" step down from the interim post in June. That's precisely why it was the Liberal Party who demanded that Rae promise not to run for the permanent job before taking the interim job. Originally Bob demanded he be allowed to keep the interim job for two years, now he's "expected" to resign (provided the party board of directors allows him to run for the full time job).

Bob Rae wants to be Prime Minister. That's why he joined the Liberal party and entered federal politics. That's what I've been saying all along. Today's poll question; should Bob Rae be allowed to run for permanent leader of the Liberal Party?

Wildrose Lost?

Ouch, very few saw that one coming. Given that Wildrose was leading in the polls for most of the campaign, one of two things must be true; either there was a last minute swing in support, or the polling during the campaign was completely inaccurate. Wildrose won zero seats in the previous election, so a jump to 20 should be considered a strong step forward; had it not been for repeated lofty expectations of a Wildrose victory. If the polling was accurate, then what officially knocked the train off the tracks? There were some comments by individual candidates which created significant amounts of negative press. Was it simply a case that in a pinch, people will tend to go with the devil they know rather than the one they don't? Can we find a way to blame this on the unions?

As a non-Albertan, I can't speak about the mood on the street; but I am trying to figure out what happened. I'd still rather live under Allison Redford than Dalton McGuinty, so in that sense Alberta, it could be worse (aka living in Ontario).