Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Justin Trudeau Walks On Water; New Poll Shows

**Newsflash** The Federal Liberals have a new leader, and their polling numbers have improved. This happens every single time they pick a new leader, they get a poll bounce. It even happened for Stephane Dion! Shortly after Ignatieff's coronation, new polls had the Liberals in majority territory. Two years later, Iggy didn't even win his own seat. We have seen this scenario play out time and time again, and now we are seeing it again.

It is important for national political pundits not to read too much into this completely expected polling trend. The longer Trudeau runs the party, the more mistakes he's going to make. One of the advantages to having no leadership experience is never made a mistake leading the entire political machine (leadership mistakes tend to have more severe consequences). Trudeau has however, spent enough time in the public eye to have made a number of ridiculous statements on video, any of which should be fair game in political advertising (charity auctions notwithstanding).

Ignatieff had the same problem. He could not undo all the things he had written in books or said in the media, which provided most of the material for the so-called "attack ads", that were allegedly responsible for his spectacular downfall. If you want to call a 30 second clip of dumb things someone has said or written publicly "attack adds", then so be it. Pointing out that an opponent is inexperienced is not bullying, nor is repeating his statements attacking. That's just my opinion.

So why aren't we currently living under an Ignatieff majority? Once upon a time, that's what the polls said would happen.


  1. The analogy is correct - and most Canadians are well aware of the scenario.
    A flash-in-the pan, where the truth hurts, just like that famous add for cough medicine - "It tastes awful, but it works.

  2. Stephen Harper overcame statements many would precieve as idiotic to win.

  3. One need only to look at the present BC election for reference. Until push came to shove the NDP were leading by 20 points. Now when people must actually chose their candidate the gap is 4 points and I predict another BC Liberal government.

    It is easy to complain and pick the 'new'party but when it comes down to rational choice everyone votes with their pocket book. Cheers. SOR

  4. Madames et Monsieurs, I present to you the 23rd Prime Minister of Canada!