Sunday, August 30, 2009

Election Metrics

I have been running the numbers through my Canadian Election spreadsheet, and made a few assumptions. If 5% of the Liberal vote shifted Tory in Quebec or visa versa, projected seat counts don’t change. In BC, if 5% of the Tory vote is lost to the Liberals because of the furor of over the HST, one seat may change. If Tories poach 5% of NDP voters in Manitoba due to the new Doer-Harper alliance, max 2 seats change. Quebec, Manitoba, and BC are not the “swing states”. For example and contrast, if one out every ten people who voted Liberal in Ontario in the last election instead vote Tory, bingo bango bongo, you have your majority. Conversely, if one in ten Ontario Tory votes switch to Liberal, you can expect a relatively similar seat count in parliament, and a strong Tory minority. Infact, if one out of every five Ontario Tory voters cross to the Liberals, the projection points to a Tory minority with 21 more seats.

What I’m saying is, if you expect the center swing votes to elect a majority, the Tories need only 1 in 10 Ontario Liberals to vote for big blue. The Liberals need at least 1 in 4 Ontario Tory votes to form a minority. That shifts Liberal if Iggy can hammer the Bloc in Quebec. The pragmatic swing voters need to determine if they enjoy constant threats to topple the government and force an election. Because if it is a 24/7 cycle on the promotion of agendas, the data suggest that the Liberals need to significantly eat into the Ontario Tory vote to win even a minority. If voters want a stable majority, they have to vote Harper. Even if the National polling is tied, the probability of any kind of Liberal government is at no better than 25% if Vegas were taking bets on it. People must swing to the right if we are to have any probability of a majority government. I just write what I see in the data. Even a seismic shift to the left still points to a Tory minority. Voters will decide, but Michael Ignatieff will chose when they make that choice.

No comments:

Post a Comment