Friday, August 28, 2009

Hoping for a Monster season...

As someone who passionately despises the Toronto Maple Leafs who is looking at the team that Burkie is icing this season, I am really hoping for a monster season from the newest Leaf Jonas Gustavsson! Personally I love how Leaf fans are glowing about the signing of the Swedish goaltending "Monster" Gustavsson. When they predict how good he's going to be on that one year contract, I respond with an "I hope you are right." I want him to have a Monster season, because it is tough to finish in dead last with a Monster goalie. Especially since there is no guarantee that he resigns with Toronto on his future UFA contract. It may be more likely that he sign with Leafs than any other team, but I'd peg that at 75% at best. If he stands on his head while the players in front of him blow, that 25% gone baby gone probability will creep at least a little bit higher.

Playoffs are a no go. May as well fail gloriously, instead of finishing in 8th last. Most drafts have a small cluster of ultra-elite prospects in the top 5, as there is a significant decline in expected value in picks 6-15. I did a statistical study of the NHL Draft, which in hindsight I should try to publish. I cracked the value of a draft pick by round and country/league of origin. For example, 80% of players drafted who play NCAA will stay for the full 4 year term. When Burke acquired Calgary's 2nd pick next year, he was acquiring a 35% chance at a player who plays at least 8 games in the NHL by 2013. Though that probability varies depending on where the player is drafted from. He could draft a Russian, and roll the dice on possibly acquiring an elite player with a lower probability that he ever gets on a plane to cross the ocean.

Yes Komisarek and Beauchemin make the Toronto D better, but they are seriously lacking in one category that you need to win, PLAYERS WHO SCORE GOALS! I think when Burke was on that plane to Stockholm and he was texted that the Sedins resigned in Vancouver, within an hour of that I'm sure he decided "fuck it, I'm tearing it down". The twins would have made Toronto a playoff team, even if just that 6th seed. In that case you have to go for it. There is no doubt that he was flying to Stockholm on the eve of free agency with the objective of acquiring the twins. He was denied. At least he left Sweden with Gustavsson, which gives him deniability and something to feed to starving fans.

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