Thursday, July 30, 2009

The Iceman Melteth

I need to apologize to my dozens of fans who have had to suffer through my summer hiatus where I have posted very little banter. To be honest, the heat has a destructive effect on my creative process, as Mother Nature designed my body for cold weather survival.

So to those 10-20 people who enjoy reading my opinion on a bi-daily basis, you may direct your anger at the Sun. There have been some stories in the news these past few weeks that have caught my attention, but none that were able to snap my heated induced creative malaise. When the ice running through your veins is the source of your "literary super powers", excessive sunshine acts as a virulent strain of kryptonite.

There was one story today that irked me, to say the least. I congratulate the Liberal Party for finding two seemingly "conflicting statements" by Tory Ministers, but it hardly warrants an urgent open letter by John McCallum. When the Trade Minister says "the recession is over" and the Finance Minister says "be careful, the recession may not be over" it is not front page news! These are not mutually exclusive statements. My official statement on the state of the economy is "many experts believe that the worst is behind us, while others believe it may yet get worse." The probability of outcomes is likely in the neighborhood of 70% worst behind us and 30% chance it gets worse. Neither Stockwell Day or Jim Flaherty was wrong. Day should have said "there is a 70% chance the recession is over" and Flaherty should have said exactly what he did. End of story!

The fact of the matter at hand is that the Global Economy is a complex organism comprised of a million components and thousands of variables that cannot be predicted through any modern combination of algorithms. Statements can be made that have a specific probability of occurring, but nobody can predict the final outcome with absolute certainty. The Chief of the Bank of Canada can come out and say the recession will be over soon; but even that is a guess, however educated it might be.

Then this Kevin Page guy comes out and says that he disagrees with government deficit projections half a decade from now? Sorry Kevin, but nobody can predict government revenues on the other side of this recession. We have no idea how much "made in Canada" will be "bought in America" five years from now, and that will ultimately have the most significant impact on employment and revenue. We also have no idea how this massive social spending experiment being conducted by Obama and Pelosi will affect the strength of that giant economy on which we are dependent for our wealth.

What we are dealing with here in reality are a series of probability based possabilities, and yet I keep seeing the talking heads on my television speaking in absolutes. It seems as though any shmuck who took Introduction to Macroeconomics at University suddenly thinks they are fucking channeling Nostradamus! Relax everyone, the sky is not falling just yet, but then again nothing is certain.

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