A new poll released by Ipsos has the Conservatives at 34% (up from last week) and the Liberals at 31%, confirming that there has been an increase in Liberal support during their summer tour. Over the past couple of years we have typically seen Conservative support decrease when Parliament is not in session, and increase when Parliament gets down to business; so the narrowing of the gap between the two main parties should not alarm Tory supporters. The media has been pounding the government for most of the summer, so it should not come as a surprise that the numbers moved. I wasn’t worried in February, and I’m not worried now.
I prefer to see the Conservatives with a lead, but the advantage of bad polling numbers is that it significantly reduces speculation that the party will force an unwanted election in an attempt to take advantage of the situation. Suzie Delacourt says that Liberal MPs are "planning" for a fall election, not because of direction from their leader, but because they expect Stephen Harper to dissolve his own government before its second birthday. Look at the poll numbers Suzie, that isn't going to happen.
The belief that the PM will collapse his government in the fall is wishful thinking for the opposition. As Liberal support increases, the Grits will be tempted to go to the polls to try and take advantage of their momentum. The dilemma is that the current government is less than 2 years old and if any party forces a new election that few Canadians want, there will be Hell to pay. You are not going to see Ignatieff kick off September by saying "Mr. Harper your time is up". If the Libs are going to vote non confidence, I would expect it to be appear spontaneous, almost an accident. Once the government closes in on 3 years old, the idea of an election is more palatable to the general public.
Speaking of elections, you do hear the left muse that if Stephen Harper could not win a majority against Stephane Dion, he never will. Am I the only one who remembers that there was a stock market meltdown right in the middle of the last election campaign? Rare catastrophic economic collapses during a campaign will always punish the party in power. Mr. Harper still came within a dozen seats of a majority and has now guided us through the recovery. Despite our strong economic performance throughout this recession, we remain vulnerable to what happens south of the border. If Obama takes down the American economy, we are going to feel it in Canada.
(reposting, better fit here Iceman!)
ReplyDeleteHey, Kevin Page speaks, flip flops!
Conference Board says Canada may even balance the books 2 YEARS earlier, if the govt stays the course.
OTTAWA — The sharp rebound from recession could put the federal government on the road to balancing its books a year ahead of schedule, budget watchdog Kevin Page said Monday in a reversal from previous statements.
The parliamentary budget officer has often quarrelled with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty over the government’s projections for the deficit, maintaining the shortfall could not be overcome without major spending cuts or tax hikes.
.. Ottawa on course to report a surplus in the 2014-15 fiscal period, one year earlier than Flaherty projected, the think-tank estimated.
In fact, if the economy performs just slightly better than predicted and Ottawa sticks to its spending restraint plans, the Conference Board said a balanced budget could be booked as early as 2013-14.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Canada/1196123.html
It's summer time ... and the populace, if thinking of politics at all, is likely thinking "a pox on both houses".
ReplyDeleteDoes this poll mean anything? Is support shifting away from the Conservatives and toward the Liberals? The media taking heads are drooling at the thought of, well, something to talk about, but I seriously doubt it.
What this poll is really saying is that neither party has any significant favour in the eyes of the voters. There are no big crises plauging the country; the economy, while not great, is in far better shape than our US neighbours, and employment is, by and large, steady and available. Despite the media's best efforts to manufacture them, there are no big scandals breaking out from Ottawa. All's quiet.
If and when an election is called, the issues framing that election will be all important; right now the public could care less.
Um, in this Ipos poll the CPC is down one point and the Libs are up one point. So baiscally no change month over month. But Tabloid Jane and the rest of the PPG will make this one point shift seem bigger I bet..
ReplyDeleteSorry but pardon me while I laugh...
My sense is that, when that historically low EKOS poll came out for the Libs, Donolo started marshalling Lib allies in the media, and elsewhere, that he needed their help.
ReplyDeleteSo we are again seeing a tag-team effort by the usual suspect, this time beating the census drum, last time it was the prorogation drum.
I think we have to acknowledge that Donolo is putting up a good fight. Remember, he was a pollster, and well-liked by the media. He knows all the tricks of those trades.
For example, he is now hoping for the "slingshot" effect, after low poll numbers, and trying to create the impression of a rebound, and then, possibly momentum. Then he will phone his media buddies, and get them to spin the poll results appropriately. Remember too, he has to keep the Lib base motivated, and lift their spirits, and try and squeeze more donations.
Sheikh said he resigned because of a G&M headline, that cast doubts on StatsCan.
ReplyDelete'The media made me do it'!
So where was the 'media' when Adscam was cooking?
Travers (momentarily writting a nonpartisan article, tho I'm sure he will come to his census soon):
''... But it’s important to note that no one resigned when control of the money that was to become the Quebec sponsorship slush fund secretly slipped away from Parliament and into prime minister Jean Chrétien’s office...'
So where was civil servant integrity during the Chretien years?
The math does not back up Liberal.
ReplyDeleteResurgence in Membership, financial statements, star candidates has not materialized.
Media talking heads can't hide the facts or the election results. The trend line for the Liberals since 2000 has been in a downward trend. In 2008 the region they carried in ALL of Canada was the Atlantic region.
The Liberals are 2nd place in Ontario and 2nd place in Quebec.
The noise on wafers, H1N1, perogies, Helena, Census is just noise. In 2009 Canadians sent two more Conservatives to Ottawa and the Liberals did the worst in GOTV.
Take a look at the photos of the Liberal express, staffers, MPs, local candidate family and friends make up the crowd of 100-200?
That's it!
The Liberal Party is dead, the rhetoric is old an tired. Ignatieff like Dion is trying to save the furniture tour in ridings it holds and recently lost.
In my deepest feeling OBAMA is not interested in the welfare of the american so whatever happens to USA when she falls- well, she will arise with another form of government PROGRESSIVENESS, SOCIALISM MARKISM you name it and from there, they start their regiment on the public just as Hugo Chavez is doing. If any go against him speak against they pay the penalty.
ReplyDeleteLayton, Duceppe and Liberals are bounded together in an agreement Layton and Duceppe share the views as OBAMA-they want to run canada as OBAMA runs his. The media here admires OBAMA more than their own PM as you can.
Don't be surprise that layton and duceppe urge the liberals to force an election simple reason- to join OBAMA by joining both countries under the regime of one socialist marxism and corruption but first, canada has to fall big time to arise again under evil.
Why is it that Layton Duceppe and liberals didn't bother to help the PM during the recession when he ask for their input. is because they are bot interest in the public nor in canada.
why do you think they support the taliban and not our troops.
why do you think they forced the PM to bail out Layton, Duceppe union buddies.
Why do you think that some of them of three parties went to Copahengan to bash and ruin Alberta oil sand and alberta.
Don't you find it unusual that the opposition parties and their show no signs of great joy nor pride for our country and how we are seen in the world or the fabulous reports we got from other lands.
Day in day out negative on our country on you on our troops is only to bring down the great land.
Heh, about that StatsCans world renoun reputation as a topnotch data collector:
ReplyDelete''Statscan's failure to accurately count teachers in summer casts doubt on employment plunge''
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/statscan-under-fire-over-faulty-july-job-figures/article1667417/
Who do you think the media would support without they batting an eyelid:
ReplyDeleteOBAMA or PMSH
which country do you think the canadian media will quickly support under:
USA- OBAMA or CANADA-PMSH
Which economy would the media support:
CANADA'S or USA.
Of the two which one is greater respected by the National media.
OUR MILITARY or The Taliban
There are tons of questions simple ones to ask the national media because, it is they and through them canadians are coached: How to think, who to and not to vote for and support.
Instructing canadians is a perfect dose of socislistic marxism.
You are smokin' hot today Jen!
ReplyDeleteCheers Bubba
Ahhhh, now this is the kind of reporting I expect we will see when SunTV is up and running,
ReplyDeletebe worried Liberals, very worried:
Will the real Mark Holland please stand up?
http://blogs.canoe.ca/eyeonthehill/liberals/will-the-real-mark-holland-please-stand-up/
Does this poll mean anything? Is support shifting away from the Conservatives and toward the Liberals? The media taking heads are drooling at the thought of, well, something to talk about, but I seriously doubt it.
ReplyDeleteIt means nothing.
Look back at the last four years of polling, and you'll see a clear trend. When there is any threat of an election, the Conservative numbers are up...when that threat subsides, Conservative numbers go back down as people 'park' their votes with the NDP, Greens, fringe parties or just go back to being 'undecided'. Make no mistake, though: if the credible threat of an election looms, those numbers will quickly change back.
Make no mistake, though: if the credible threat of an election looms, those numbers will quickly change back.
ReplyDeleteHope you're right.
frmgrl said...
ReplyDeleteMake no mistake, though: if the credible threat of an election looms, those numbers will quickly change back.
Hope you're right.
I'd put money on it (and I don't even buy lottery tickets, that's how much of a gambler I am..;).
I first noticed this when some Liberals were crowing about the Conservative numbers dropping rapidly. Problem was, there was no reason for it to happen; numbers go up and down all the time, but they only move *rapidly* when there is an actual reason. That got me thinking, and when I saw the numbers go back up, then down again, I made the connection. Since then it has never failed, and I see no reason for that to change. We are slowly but surely becoming the new Natural Governing Party in Canada...