Wildrose Lost?

Ouch, very few saw that one coming. Given that Wildrose was leading in the polls for most of the campaign, one of two things must be true; either there was a last minute swing in support, or the polling during the campaign was completely inaccurate. Wildrose won zero seats in the previous election, so a jump to 20 should be considered a strong step forward; had it not been for repeated lofty expectations of a Wildrose victory. If the polling was accurate, then what officially knocked the train off the tracks? There were some comments by individual candidates which created significant amounts of negative press. Was it simply a case that in a pinch, people will tend to go with the devil they know rather than the one they don't? Can we find a way to blame this on the unions?

As a non-Albertan, I can't speak about the mood on the street; but I am trying to figure out what happened. I'd still rather live under Allison Redford than Dalton McGuinty, so in that sense Alberta, it could be worse (aka living in Ontario).

Boneheaded Election Mistake

A piece of advice to anyone running for public office, there are smart things to say and incredibly stupid things to say. For example; going on the radio and saying that the colour of your skin gives you an advantage over your opponent is among the dumbest things any candidate could do in an election campaign. That's what happened today yesterday in Alberta, which has a chance to derail Wildrose momentum. I'm a fan of Danielle Smith. I think she'd make a great Premier and a strong candidate to one day run for federal Tory leadership. I'm willing to bet she's mightily pissed off at Ron Leech for his comments, which could jeopardize their chances of usurping a provincial political dynasty. The media has already been trying to paint her as a Canadian Sarah Palin, which is ridiculous (one is a Libertarian, the other is a hardcore social conservative). Even clowns like John Ibbitson have been on television saying "having an arch-conservative in Alberta is bad for Stephen Harper", which is asinine. How on earth is a Redford better for the Prime Minister than Smith?

When Alberta does go to the polls, I'll be cheering for Danielle to be the next Premier, but I'd like to see Leech taken off the ballot if it is not too late to name a replacement.

Who Should Be The Premier Of Alberta?

With a left leaning Alison Redford now leading the Alberta PC Party, the next general election in Alberta should be very interesting. Today's poll question; who should be the Premier of Alberta? Is everyone just waiting for the acclimation of Danielle Smith? Should Gary Mar, Doug Horner, or Ted Morton have won the PC leadership and be leading the Progressives into the next election? The early consensus on the Redford administration is that the party is now more progressive than conservative, and that Wildrose might be the only Conservative party left to vote for. With Redford as Premier, Ed Stelmach has to be looking pretty good right about now...

What about Naheed Nenshi or Monte Solberg? Wayne Gretzky? I'm just throwing out names.

Where There's A Gas Tank, There's A Way...

A message for the many voices trying to end the Keystone and Kitimat pipelines; you can kill the pipelines, but you can't stop the flow of oil. We have substantial oil reserves and the world has an insatiable appetite for the substance. Short of the NDP forming government and making it illegal to harvest oil, it will continue to travel by the old reliable methods, tankers, roads, rail, etc. Do you think that a fleet of tankers is safer and cleaner than a pipeline? Seriously? That is today's poll question.

The people who are fighting to kill the pipeline from Edmonton to northern BC, the alternative is the status quo, an aged pipeline that runs under metro Vancouver. Do you think that is cleaner or safer? Pipeline to Kitimat, or pipeline under greater Vancouver that carries oil to Vancouver harbour? It is a no brainer. And if you kill the existing pipeline that will just mean more trucks and trains traveling through the mountain passes. Great, that never turns out badly...

You can't stop the flow. Your best hope is diminishing demand through technological innovations, but that won't stop demand to the developing world anytime soon. Perhaps we could put an electric car in every Canadian driveway (though watch what that would do to the price of electricity), but you can't deliver that to the whole world within a plausible timeline. Demand will continue, and even if it slowly diminishes, as supply diminishes prices will remain profitable.

We have trillions of dollars worth of this stuff under the ground. That value leads to jobs, which leads to economic activity which supports countless supporting businesses. It also funds billions of dollars in tax revenue for the government. The oil sands in Alberta helps pay for health care in Quebec and Ontario. How much money does the Canada Pension fund have invested in Canadian Natural Resources? Billions. How many Canadians collect cheques from CPP?

Should Canada build more oil refineries? Yes, absolutely. But if you shut down oil production, the economic consequences would be catastrophic. Come on people; give your heads a good shake!

What Alberta And BC Conservatives Have In Common

In a result that nobody saw coming, Alison Redford is now suddenly the Premier of Alberta after winning a party nomination to replace the sitting PC leader. She did not win an election to be Premier, only a nomination process; eerily similar to Christy Clark's rise to power in British Columbia. The early consensus seems to be that Redford is very liberal, again eerily similar to Clark. Both are left leaning, did not become Premier in a general election, and both irritate Conservatives in provinces that vote strongly Tory federally. Allow me to predict that both will lose their first election campaigning for the Premier's office.

It won't take long before the Alberta PC party starts regretting replacing Ed Stalmach, as many of their rank and file defect to the Wildrose. If you are a supporter or member of the Wildrose Alliance in Alberta, the nomination of Redford is likely to be better for you than the reign of "Steady Eddy". In BC, our fledgling Conservative Party stands to benefit from the folly of Christy Clark. Manure makes good fertilizer.

What Happened In Edmonton-Strathcona?

This was one result that I did not expect on election day, NDP MP Linda Duncan retaining her Edmonton seat and substantially increasing her margin of victory from 2008. The Tory vote held consistent, but Linda went up 11% in popular vote, while the Liberals fell 6.3% and the Greens fell 4.1% (there are almost no Lib or Green votes left to migrate to her in 2015). It isn't fair to call Ryan Hastman a dud because he did get more total votes than Jaffer did in 2008, though his share of the popular vote fell 1.1% because 1500 more people voted. I would be curious to see how many people moved into this riding since 2008. Elections Canada does keep track of how many voters where transferred in from another riding, though you might have to do an access to information request to see that information. Did a whole bunch of Alberta's left wingers migrate to that riding?

Quebec City Oilers

Gary Bettman has now said that the NHL cannot survive in Edmonton unless they build a new arena in the next 5 years. Forget the fact that they sellout every game, the NHL commissioner is now casually threatening to move the storied franchise. What other cities are building new stadiums? How bitterly ironic would it be if the Edmonton Oilers moved into the new arena in Quebec City? Though I suspect they'd change the team name. Alberta oil is not very popular in la belle province. They could call the team the Quebec Green Crusaders.

I would support a small, modestest investment by the federal government to help save the Oilers by building a new barn. I supported the feds helping to build the rink in QC not because I wanted to pander to francophone voters, but because I love hockey and recognize the value of these franchises to our economy and more so our culture. Don't worry Winnipeg, the Phoenix franchise is dying. You'll get your Jets back. First Gary Bettman must be fired. I want to start a petition.

Secure Oil

After protests in Tunisia spread to Egypt, fears are starting to grow that such revolutions could spread to other middle eastern countries with authoritarian regimes. In 2009 we saw millions of people protesting bogus election results in Iran, which could have been the spark that started the current fire. If civil unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia, we could see a substantial reduction in daily global oil production. If that were to happen, how high would barrel price have to rise before the Americans start singing praise of the Alberta oil sands.

Ezra Levant recently wrote a book called Ethical Oil, in which he presented the idea that some foreign oil funds brutal regimes, and that buying Canadian oil is more ethical. He should have called the book "Secure Oil", because in the not so distant future security of the oil production may become a bigger issue than whether or not it is ethical.

Alberta's Next Premier

Thursday's poll question will be; who should be Alberta's next Premier? In the meantime your suggestions are welcome. If Steady Eddy Stelmach is going to step down before the next provincial election, then whoever runs to replace him will become Premier for a short time before going to a general election. Wouldn't it be nice if Danielle Smith replaced him? Except that would require her to leave the Wildrose Party, which I expect she's unwilling to do. The best thing that the Alberta PC Party could do is find someone who is very popular federally.

Personally I'd love to see Danielle Smith run for the federal Tories.

A Tale Of Two Cities: Toronto Shifting Right, Calgary Shifting Left

With the election of mayor Nenshi in Calgary, I have heard pundits arguing whether or not Calgary is shifting to the left; while the emergence Rob Ford in Toronto is evidence that city is shifting to the right. Whether or not the political landscape is changing in Liberal/Tory strongholds, the most important talking point is that in 2008 67% of greater Calgary voted Tory, while 12% of Calgarians voted Liberal. In greater Toronto 39% voted Liberal and 36% voted Conservative. The GTA has 38 seats to the GCA's 11.

I don't know how you'd like to spin this record, but if the story is true that Toronto is shifting right while Calgary is shifting left, the Tories unquestionably have to most to gain and the least to lose. If the Tories lose 1 in 10 voters in Calgary to the Liberals, they stand to lose zero seats. If 1 in 10 Liberals instead vote Tory in Toronto, the Libs stand to lose 5 seats. If a full 1/4 of federal Conservative voters in Calgary defected to the Liberals, the Tories would lose...wait for it...zero seats. If 25% of Toronto Liberals shift Tory, the Liberals would lose...wait for it...19 seats in a large Tory majority.

You could peel off a quarter of Tory Calgary votes and give them to the Liberals and no seats would change hands. Do the opposite in Toronto and the Liberals would lose a quarter of their caucus! That's the math. So who has the most to lose if this narrative is true? The Tories aren't far behind the Liberals in Toronto, where the Liberals have virtually zero chance of winning any seats federally in Calgary. Somehow I doubt that Jane Taber will bring that up. There are more Conservatives in Toronto than some people would have you believe.

Aren't Conservatives Supposed To Be Racist?

Calgary, the most Conservative city in Canada has just elected a Muslim mayor named Nahed Nenshi. Here I thought that Conservative people are supposed to be racist bigots who hate minorities? A city that votes for a very ethnically diverse cast of elected officials can hardly be labeled as racist. It was just last week that Liberal pollster Frank Graves proclaimed that "white male seniors from Alberta" were the backbone of Tory support. In the 2008 election the Tories won roughly 67% of the vote in the greater Calgary area, the highest popular vote result for the Conservatives in Canada (followed by Edmonton at 60%, Saskatoon at 51%, and Winnipeg at 47%). By comparison, the Liberals pull only 39% of the vote in greater Toronto and 29% in greater Montreal.

As Jason Kenney tweeted last night:

"Note for those from outside of Calgary who seem to be stunned that Calgary would elect a Mayor named Naheed: Calgary has had a far more ethnically and religiously diverse contingent of elected representatives than any other major Cdn city for as long as I can remember."


"Where was the first Muslim MP elected from? Alberta (Rahim Jaffer). The first Canadian Hindu MP? Deepak Obhrai, from Calgary."


"Question: Where was the first Muslim Cabinet Minister in Canada from? Edmonton, Alberta. (Larry Shaben in the Lougheed PC government)."

Well said. I don't know much about the new mayor as I did not pay much attention to the election, but I am always pleased when Conservatives break Liberal stereotypes.

"White, male seniors from Alberta give Tories solid upper hand"

The Conservative Party has been trending upwards in the last two months of EKOS polling, and just look at Jane Taber's headline! I suppose that I owe a thank you to all the white male seniors in Alberta who have been driving up Tory national numbers, as this single demographic of people are the reason that there is good news for Conservatives nationally. I'm curious, what percentage of white male seniors from Alberta voted Tory in 2008? I'm guessing 80%? Did we lose a bunch of while male seniors from Alberta since the last election, only to win them back in the last two months?

Great headline Jane. Did you think of that one yourself or did Graves? Granted, error rates are significantly higher when you focus in on individual regions and demographics. You take good news for the Conservatives and draw up a headline to spin it as solely attributable to white male seniors from Alberta. That's about what I've come to expect of Taber.

Why We Need New Fighter Jets

When our existing fleet of fighter jets start breaking down and crash landing while practicing for air shows, then perhaps it is time to start thinking about ordering some new equipment for our pilots. Today's crash landing in Lethbridge, where a plane stalled in flight forcing the pilot to eject, should signal to Canadians that we had better buy some new jets. Wait, we already have? Outstanding. Can we ask Lockheed to speed up that first delivery?

Thankfully the pilot only sustained minor injuries.


Earlier this month I asked the question:

DO YOU THINK THE CANADIAN AIR FORCE NEEDS NEW FIGHTER JETS?

Yes (96%)
No (4%)

Votes: 206

Iggy's $55 a Plate Green Eggs And Ham Breakfast

When provided the opportunity today to clarify Ignatieff's "Harper is the Devil" comments at the Calgary Stampede, spokesperson Michael O'Shaughnessy was able to elaborate, "The smell of rotten eggs is quite evident when one faces the Conservative government on a daily basis." I suppose referring to the smell of the rotting eggs that Iggy was serving for breakfast to those able to fork out $55 a head (children aged 7-12 got a great deal at $40 per head).

Would you pay $55 a head to eat Iggy's green eggs and ham? How many kids were at the event? How many parents of children aged 7-12 tried to convince the bouncer at the gate that their child was actually 6 years old? How many families showed up to the Liberal tent and were turned away because they did not want to pay $250 for a family breakfast when the honourable Prime Minister was giving pancakes away for free at the same event?

Take Me Out To The Rodeo

Someday I would like to attend the Calgary Stampede. I have never attended a rodeo and I think that would be an enjoyable experience. I saw in the news today that a group paid $15,000 to advertise the “cruelty of the rodeo” in the Calgary Herald. A British animal rights group is also getting involved. Rodeos are banned in Britain, and as many as 50 British MPs signed a motion in their House of Commons to have the Canadian federal government intervene in what is considered permissible at the Stampede. When I hear this kind of moral indignation coming from Europe (like with the seal hunt) against historic Canadian institutions, it does not make me more sympathetic to their opinion. Rather the opposite, I want to go buy seal skin boots and tickets to the Calgary Stampede.

The Wildroses

Lost in yesterday's scorching of Toronto was the convention of the Wildrose Party in Alberta. The membership voted down some of their more controversial policies and instead went with a more moderate platform to appeal more to the center of the spectrum. In my humble opinion, they should have voted to change the name of the party. Perhaps Alberta really loves their flowers, but I have a suspicion that there will be people who will never vote for a party called "wildrose". Maybe they are born to be wild, but I'd prefer Wildcougars, or maybe Wildgrizzlies?

Right now the best thing they have going for them is an intelligent and charismatic leader, which may or may not be enough to overcome a terrible party name. Though I would not have advised the backhanded compliment that Danielle Smith gave to the membership "that shows a level of sophistication I didn’t actually expect to see". Perhaps it would be better if the leader had higher expectations of member sophistication?

Mansbridge Interviews Danielle Smith

Last night I watched my first full length interview with Danielle Smith, conducted by none other than Manbridge, and I have to say that I was very impressed with the Wildrose leader. I was first introduced to her by Don Martin, and as such was immediately skeptical at his assertion that she was a threat to the federal Tories in Ottawa. If you listen to her speak, she has tremendous respect for our Prime Minister and is in no way challenging the federal party. My initial skepticism of Danielle was also compounded by the fact that many left wingers eagerly declared the rise of the Wildrose as identical to the Reform rise that split the federal Tory party.

Having watched the interview this evening, I was very impressed by her quick wit and intellectual acumen. If there are Albertans who want her to lead their Province, I understand that. But as a non-Albertan, I think she could do the greatest amount of good for the country by running for the federal Conservatives. She is a very real talent who I'd love to see in cabinet. Though I should say that I believe some of the anger at Ed Stelmach has perhaps been over-blown. Alberta is heavily dependent on oil exports for its fiscal strength, and when oil goes from $150 a barrel to $40 a barrel in a few short months, you are going to have cash flow problems. I feel as though Eddy has received some blame for events that occurred outside our country.

I am definitely a member of the Danielle Smith fan club going forward. I should disclose that I was seduced by the Siren song of Belinda Stronach once upon a time, so take that for what it's worth. Danielle even cited “what happened to” Belinda Stronach as one of her father’s reasons that she shouldn’t run for political leadership. I’m not sure whether she meant “what happened to” Belinda when she ran for Tory leadership with no political experience, or “what happened to” Belinda after she crossed the floor to the Liberal party in exchange for a cabinet seat.

Alberta To The Rescue

I must admit that it was touching to see several Alberta firefighters boarding a plane to travel to Quebec to help them put out the wildfires threatening a number of communities. For all the animosity that exists between the two provinces, in a serious crisis we are all Canadians. I find it to be a confusing contradiction when Quebec politicians bloviate about shutting down the oil patch, when that same oil patch has produced billions of dollars of equalization money that Quebec politicians are all too eager to accept. Hopefully Jean Charest can suspend his Alberta hate long enough to say thank you to all those firefighters getting off the plane to help save those threatened rural communities.

Didn't it snow in Calgary yesterday? I don't think that Alberta is in any imminent danger from wildfires right now. The east however, is stuck in a heat wave. In Vancouver, it has been raining a lot, but what else is new?

CBC Oilsands Mea Culpa

I couldn't help but notice the CBC's Fred Langan cozying up to the Alberta oilsands, now that we have tens of thousands of barrels of offshore oil washing up along the gulf coast. While it may produce carbon dioxide, which you may or may not even consider pollution, oilsand production is far safer than offshore drilling. Even the CBC, the bane of Alberta, is beginning to realize what a good thing we have. If the Yankees start freezing offshore production, or new offshore exploration, that will decrease their domestic supply and raise the price of crude. That will benefit Alberta.

It is morbid to think that the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico could actually benefit Canada, but suddenly even the CBC is doing a mea culpa on the oilsands. They even called them the "oilsands" instead of the "tarsands", which is often an indicator to judge a pundit's negative or positive view of this great Canadian resource.

Alberta rocks!

A Quiet Spring in Alberta?

With just 9 days remaining in the NHL season, both Alberta teams are on the outside of the playoffs looking in. The Edmonton Oilers have already been eliminated from post season play and have the added benefit of clinching dead last winning the most ping pong balls in the draft lottery (in a year with a prized #1 prospect). I have to say sorry Edmonton, but I am cheering for the Boston Bruins (c/o the Toronto Maple Leafs) to get the top pick. That way forever more I can say that Phil Kessel cost the Leafs Taylor Hall and another 1st round pick on top of that. I dislike the Leafs more than I like the Oilers.

Calgary is nipping at the heels of the last playoff spot, as the youthfully inexperienced Colorado Avalanche have lost 3 in a row. Will the Flames make the playoffs? San Jose is very vulnerable right now. Nabakov hasn't been able to stop a beach ball since the Olympics (some may argue since before). So there is an opportunity for the Flames who have put together a mini-winning streak and sit 2 points back in a tumultuous season that saw them steal flu vaccine from vulnerable women and children.

Vancouver Canucks fans, be on the lookout. You should all be cheering hard for Nashville to choke because if the playoffs started today, you'd be matched up against the one team that nobody wants to play. One team is undefeated in their last ten games, my Detroit Red Wings. I have said all throughout this whole mediocre season "wake me up for the playoffs."